Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

[MMA_scientist]

^ I think Bonnar will win a decision. I think it will be close and ugly.

This card is shaping up nicely.


You can usually get some good opportunity on the TUF finales. Some of my best cards have been TUF finales.

Maia will win. At this point, I think Maia can beat him standing. Every other fight is hard to call for me.

Hendricks/Story is good, I think Hendricks will win, but Story has (had) the value.

Bonnar/Igor is close too.

I think Branch will beat Attonito. Branch is good and I still think he will make a decent MW in the UFC.

I think Toner will beat Garcia. And I will probably be making my tri-annual bet on Paixao (I have been riding that wave all of 2010).

I am guessing the final will be Brookins/Nam. Brookins will probably be favored a lot.

[Luke]

Leonard Garcia out, Ian Loveland in against Tyler Toner for Dec. 4 TUF 12 Finale

.

[edman5555]

^ I think Bonnar will win a decision. I think it will be close and ugly.

This card is shaping up nicely.


You can usually get some good opportunity on the TUF finales. Some of my best cards have been TUF finales.

Maia will win. At this point, I think Maia can beat him standing. Every other fight is hard to call for me.

Hendricks/Story is good, I think Hendricks will win, but Story has (had) the value.

Bonnar/Igor is close too.

I think Branch will beat Attonito. Branch is good and I still think he will make a decent MW in the UFC.

I think Toner will beat Garcia. And I will probably be making my tri-annual bet on Paixao (I have been riding that wave all of 2010).

I am guessing the final will be Brookins/Nam. Brookins will probably be favored a lot.

What makes you think that Branch will win? What if Attonito puts him on his back every round? He did it to Rafael Natal, a BJJ BB with 7 sub wins.

[Havis Jr]

^^ This is how I see it going down also. Rich will win with takedowns. He trains with ATT, and has already shown he can hang with really good bjj guys without getting subed.

[MMA_scientist]

What makes you think that Branch will win? What if Attonito puts him on his back every round? He did it to Rafael Natal, a BJJ BB with 7 sub wins.

I don't think Attonito will be able to put him down and keep him down. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Branch take Attonito down. I think Branch also has the striking edge. Basically, I just think Branch is a better fighter. Attonito also lost a round to Natal, and he was 1 flurry away from losing round 1 in that faight too. I just don't think Attonito is very good, while I think Branch is a solid MW gatekeeper type. That said, I thought Branch was going to beat Harris too, so take it for what it is worth...

[poopoo333]

I need to watch all the TUF episodes.. I didn't watch this season.

[MMA_scientist]

Maia prayer vigil still going strong: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f12/maia- ... l-1037892/

War jiu jitsu jesus

[poopoo333]

Grove via triangle

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Grove nearly subbed Almeida fwiw. He also came pretty close to locking up Munoz in a darce IIRC. It could happen.

Maia by RNC rd 2.

not Grove by knees from the clinch.

But seriously, I don't see how Grove can win.

[SPX]

You gonna be on Maia for this one, Scientist?

[poopoo333]

^^ Grove nearly subbed Almeida fwiw. He also came pretty close to locking up Munoz in a darce IIRC. It could happen.

Maia by RNC rd 2.

not Grove by knees from the clinch.

But seriously, I don't see how Grove can win.

Yeah, I remember that. That armbar was close. I guess I can see Grove keeping Maia at a distance with his reach, but not for 15 minutes.

[MMA_scientist]

You gonna be on Maia for this one, Scientist?

I have him rounding out a Davis/Maia parlay.


his line has dropped into bettable territory now though. He is -360, and I seriously do not see a path to victory for Grove here. I think Grove's best bet is to try to take top position and gnp. Maia is content to work off his back, but everyone is scared to go down with him. It took him 2.5 rounds to sub McDonald, and it took him a long time to sub Herman too. I think there is a good chance Grove can avoid the submission. If he gets some takedowns, he could concievably win a decision. I doubt he will hurt Maia standing and I doubt he can stop the takedowns. So I think the chances are slim that he will willingly roll the dice and try to win a grappling match and it is just not how Grove fights, but I think that is his best option honestly.

[zY|]

Maia prayer vigil still going strong: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f12/maia- ... l-1037892/

War jiu jitsu jesus

This thread was created right before Nate sent him into orbit. The jinx is in.

Grove by 6'6" murderous knees in the clinch.

[MMA_scientist]

Grove by 6'6" murderous knees in the clinch.

Grove will be a-scared to clinch, just like Anderson. Anderson probably could have put him away with knees, but he didn't want his limbs any where within reach. Maia will put him down if he tries to clinch IMO. I am more concerned about a jumping knee or some freak thing because Grove can get into crazy exchanges. But not that worried, because Maia can take it like a champ. I seriously doubt Grove will be putting him away. And since he really can't win a decision either... Maia is going to win.

SPX, I read Maia was all kung fu and karate back in the day, also he has a journalism degree (I am trying to turn you).

[edman5555]

Grove can hit punch pretty hard though can't he? I thought he dropped Munoz with a punch, not that Munoz is Mr. Technique or anything. I think Maia will also, I am just not sure whether he will get a sub or win a D. Another point of note, Maia is getting better everywhere. I seriously think so. He outwrestled Miranda pretty well, and he was a decorated Greco Roman wrestler. His striking is looking better. Is it just me or does it seem like is working really hard and getting better in all areas? I am thinking that the Anderson Silva fight embarrassed him.

[MMA_scientist]

^ I think he always had good wrestling. He comes from a judo base as well. I think he was just unable to close the distance on Silva, so I think he started working on his shot and head movement. His hands have clearly improved and everyone says he hits surprisingly hard. Even Silva said he got rocked by a punch early on and that is why he didn't want to risk it.

Maia is actually pretty damn intense... by far the most intense "jj guy" I have met. He is definitely putting in the time and trying to be a full on mma fighter now.

As for Grove's power, I didn't think he had much. He did drop Munoz with an uppercut... but Munoz did what he does and just clung to his leg and let Kendall hammer away at his head.

But I guess Grove's wrestling is better than I thought, because Munoz was having a hard time getting and keeping him down. Maybe Kendall will be able to stuff Maia's takedowns and win striking decision.

[MMA_scientist]

Grove/Maia goes the 3 round distance -140
Fight does not go the distance +100

Story/Hendricks goes the 3 round distance -130
Fight does not go the distance -110

Pok/Bonnar goes the distance +115
Fight does not go the distance -155

[poopoo333]

I like the Bonnar/Igor decision prop

[SPX]

SPX, I read Maia was all kung fu and karate back in the day, also he has a journalism degree (I am trying to turn you).

Source?

[SPX]

My thoughts on Maia/Grove:

First, it's worth noting that Grove has only been submitted once in 19 fights, and that was 5 years ago. Granted, he hasn't fought a BJJ guy like Maia, but it's something to consider. Most of his losses have come by KO, and we know that Maia's not KOing anyone. With that said, Maia's striking has obviously improved and it's at least functional now.

Second, Grove's wrestling is pretty good. Everyone's struggled to get him down. He has those long legs and can just sprawl out and be like fuck you and then guys have to work real hard get him off his feet. Seeing how well a similar strategy worked for Dan Miller, I'm not overly confident that Maia's just gonna come in and get a takedown. He may get it eventually, but precious minutes might fall off the clock before he does.

Now, I think we all know that Grove has about as good of a shot of subbing Maia as Maia has of knocking Grove out. That is, not much. So I think there are two likely possibilities here: Maia makes the decision to turn this into a grappling war and follows that plan to its conclusion, eventually getting Grove down and either subbing him or winning a decision. Or it ends up staying on the feet and turning into mostly a striking battle, a lot like Maia/Miller, and if that happens I think it could go either way.

So I do favor Maia, but I wouldn't feel comfortable about betting him until the line got down to at least -300, if not better.