Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

[edman5555]

Anyone know how the MMA awards are decided? Is it from online votes by any chance?

[MMA_scientist]

I think Branch has more tools, is a better grappler, better striker, and the takedowns will be comparable. Branch was doing pretty well with Harris until the slam KO. He was losing, but it was competitive. I just don't think Attonito is as good. But if Branch comes in with the wrong gameplan, I Attonito could totally win a decision.

I think someone said it was an online poll for the awards in the other thread

[edman5555]

I don't know if takedowns will be comparable. Gerald did get Branch down every single round. Attonito is a former D1 wrestler as well, I don't know how good though. BJJ advantage obviously goes to Branch though. Striking could too, I have no idea.

[edman5555]

Harris is a pretty good wrestler though. I think I may just stay away from this one. I may be changing my betting strategies a bit, though I just placed a bunch of dumb bets on the mma awards. I hope they at least even out.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Degenerate. Who did you take?

[edman5555]

fight of the year Brock Lesnar Shane Carwin. This one got a lot of attention and it probably had the most people watching it. I think that should equal out to more votes.

Sub of the year. Anderson Silva over Chael. who knows who will win

Best media pub of the year. Inside MMA. it was +475. I should not have bet any of this crap.

[edman5555]

My new betting strategy is/should be going heavy on a couple of fights I think are "locks". Like Jon Jones over Ryan Bader and Kenny Florian over Evan Dunham. I can place 10 little bets on diff fights or 2 bigger bets on 2 different fights..I see placing the smaller number of bets as the best idea because I am putting everything in the bets that I feel most confident in.

[SPX]

My new betting strategy is/should be going heavy on a couple of fights I think are "locks". Like Jon Jones over Ryan Bader and Kenny Florian over Evan Dunham.

I'm with you on Jones, but I think going heavy on Florian could come back to fuck you. My view on that fight is that the right play is whoever comes in as a dog.

I can place 10 little bets on diff fights or 2 bigger bets on 2 different fights..I see placing the smaller number of bets as the best idea because I am putting everything in the bets that I feel most confident in.

I hear you, but this strategy just backfired on me with Machida over Rampage.

[MMA_scientist]

Edman, basically doing an anchor system... a lot of people bet this way.

For me 2011 is the year I get serious. It was supposed to be 2010, but I had 2 or 3 times I lost it and went crazy chasing. I still had an ok return for the year (about 50%), but I have made a comeback lately to mitigate the damage I did on the Sharkfights debacle and I did some stupid shit along the way (all in on lil Nog) that just happened to go my way.

I am still experimenting with my parlay project, but if I lose my bankroll I have set aside for that, that's it. But so far, I sort of believe in the magic parlays. Trying to be picky about my bets and just be patient. But, it is on.

[SPX]

I am still experimenting with my parlay project, but if I lose my bankroll I have set aside for that, that's it.

Haven't you done that twice already? Once on Soko and again on Hathaway?

[Luke]

I think risking your whole parlay bankroll everytime is going to be a disaster . I mean say you win 15 in a row and lose the 16th you still lose everything .

Thats why I bet 2-3 fighter parlays to win 1 unit per parlay . Most are around -150

[MMA_scientist]

I am still experimenting with my parlay project, but if I lose my bankroll I have set aside for that, that's it.

Haven't you done that twice already? Once on Soko and again on Hathaway?

Two separate things. I lost the never ending parlay bankroll on Soko. It died there. But then I created a 10u bankroll for parlays (40u for regular plays) as part of the recovery from trauma plan. I lost 5u of that on Hathaway and a bunch of boxers, but I have won several other parlays, and the project bankroll is up well over 10u now. So it lives on. It gets taken down after every 5u and multiplies. I can't remember all of them, but Faber/Davis and the props ones were part of it. I also had several smaller test runs that I never posted (I actually have BJ/Munoz/Davis/Maia rounding out Saturday too, just for like 20 bucks though testing the strategy).

See it here for reference: viewtopic.php?f=47&t=8388&start=120

[MMA_scientist]

I think risking your whole parlay bankroll everytime is going to be a disaster . I mean say you win 15 in a row and lose the 16th you still lose everything .

Thats why I bet 2-3 fighter parlays to win 1 unit per parlay . Most are around -150

yeah, I stopped doing it that way, I lost all of it on Sokodjou (even though that fight was not something I would have even considered for the parlay without the tilt). I may revive the never ending parlay at some point when I am doing better... but I got my ass kicked doing some dumb stuff and gave away like 40u, so I am still re-building from the tilt fueled binge I went on. I am trying to build the parlay bankroll into a full bankroll to compete with my regualr bankroll. I am doing a lot of 2-3 fight parlays and a lot of magic prop parlays.

[Luke]

. I am doing a lot of 2-3 fight parlays and a lot of magic prop parlays.

good idea imo

[edman5555]

My new betting strategy is/should be going heavy on a couple of fights I think are "locks". Like Jon Jones over Ryan Bader and Kenny Florian over Evan Dunham.

I'm with you on Jones, but I think going heavy on Florian could come back to fuck you. My view on that fight is that the right play is whoever comes in as a dog.

I can place 10 little bets on diff fights or 2 bigger bets on 2 different fights..I see placing the smaller number of bets as the best idea because I am putting everything in the bets that I feel most confident in.

I hear you, but this strategy just backfired on me with Machida over Rampage.

Well I am trying to stay clear of betting the dog in close fights unless it is for a small amount of money. Why risk anything significant on a fighter unless you think he is going to win? My reasoning for betting Kenny is that he is a much better standup fighter than Dunham, I think he will pick him apart actually. Dunham's wrestling isn't really that special from what I have seen, I wouldn't be suprised to see Kenny take him down.I am just hoping for a good line. I think Kenny will be favored but I am not sure which way the line will move.

Do you guys mind taking a little poll?

Do you think Dunham wins or Kenny? If you had to pick.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Florian. But it is extremely close IMO

[SPX]

I'm actually going with the upset. Dunham. But I agree with Scientist that it's close and could go either way.

[Luke]

I'm taking fightmetric's stance on all close fights : It will be a draw

[SPX]

I'm taking fightmetric's stance on all close fights : It will be a draw

Honestly, we should probably have more draws.

[poopoo333]

Every one of Kongo's fight is worth a bet on the draw prop. It's -750 that he does something illegal so it just depends on the ref.