doublearmbar vs Ludocain H2H

[zY|]

Dam, I forgot about this thread. We need Svino in here to calculate the odds of going 0-8.

Well I think it's pretty straightforward if you think of his picks like a coin flip (which is essentially what his picks are).

Two outcomes, so 8 flips is 2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2 = 512

1/512

[Luke]

^^^^ Too many flips Zy .It should be 1/256 if its a coin flip 8 times


To find out actual odds of him losing all 8 couldnt you just find the parlay odds of the fights he picked?

The closing odds of the fights he picked were:

+180
+185
-170
+105
+240
+162
+195
+131

Parlayed together is 1576 to 1 odds

[zY|]

Yeah, 256 you're right, I went 2^9 accidentally.

And if you're going to use the betting odds, wouldn't you need the inverse of the parlay odds?

It's 1576 to 1 for all of those to WIN, but it would be vastly lower for all of them to LOSE.

[Luke]

^^^ lol I have no idea I was just throwing something out there

[Svino]

And if you're going to use the betting odds, wouldn't you need the inverse of the parlay odds?

Yeah, you'd take the inverse (or the odds for the opponents), and then subtract about 2.5% for each fight to take into account the house's edge.

The funny thing is, I really believe Sideloaded got exactly what he was aiming for here. I mean, obvious troll was obvious. He was looking for an excuse to leave. I think he was trying to get every pick wrong with this challenge, and he nailed it.

I wasn't very careful, but I calculated his odds of hitting that to be about 0.9%, or 1 in 110.

[zY|]

And if you're going to use the betting odds, wouldn't you need the inverse of the parlay odds?

Yeah, you'd take the inverse (or the odds for the opponents), and then subtract about 2.5% for each fight to take into account the house's edge.

The funny thing is, I really believe Sideloaded got exactly what he was aiming for here. I mean, obvious troll was obvious. He was looking for an excuse to leave. I think he was trying to get every pick wrong with this challenge, and he nailed it.

I wasn't very careful, but I calculated his odds of hitting that to be about 0.9%, or 1 in 110.

LOL. A couple other things though.

Can we really trust the betting lines as a true indicator of the actual odds of winning? Along with them straight up not being objective, they are highly influenced by perception and betting action. On top of that, which lines are we using? Every book has different lines.

I think the troll angle is interesting. So you're suggesting that by purposely going 0-8, he actually went 8-8? If so, that's pretty impressive. Not all of those were bad picks.

[Svino]

Can we really trust the betting lines as a true indicator of the actual odds of winning?

No, but all we're ever going to be able to do is make a rough guess. Just using one house's lines is a decent first approximation.

I think the troll angle is interesting. So you're suggesting that by purposely going 0-8, he actually went 8-8?

Picking every underdog (plus one favorite that there were some decent reasons to think was overvalued) doesn't sound like someone who was trying to win. To me, it looked like a backup exit plan after, "say more and more outrageous and insulting things until I get banned" was surprisingly not doing the job. I think he was just getting tired of trolling the board.

[poopoo333]

oh hai

[SPX]

PP's bored.

[MMA_scientist]

my back is fuckin killing me

[poopoo333]

Why the fuck did you guys pick Paulino over Grant?

[Mr. IWS]

This is archive worthy shit haha

[Luke]

I kind of enjoy having a retard in the group.

[edman5555]

Classic

[poopoo333]

Good to see you picking Hunt. Does anyone have a line guess on this fight?

12

[zY|]

I must've gotten stupider. I don't understand any of that bullshit I was saying up there at all.

[Luke]

I must've gotten stupider. I don't understand any of that bullshit I was saying up there at all.

Well, you were wrong the first time so it's probably better you don't understand it now.