UFC 126 Feb 5

[Ludo]

.5u to win 1.1u on Robertson
1u to win 1.55u on Griffin
2.4u to win 1u on Silva

[edman5555]

Wait until you see my bets.

[poopoo333]

Wait until you see my bets.

Kamikaze?

[edman5555]

Yeah a little bit. I also did something new.

[Thewisemann]

My whole roll is tied up, so if Taylor wins, then I can put a bet in on Kid or Kelly. And I need to win some other bets so I can bet Griffin/Franklin goes the distance and Belfort. I plan on betting to win 1u on the prop and put .5 to 1u on Vitor

[edman5555]

Kelly? You think he will beat Cerrone?

[Thewisemann]

No, but I think he has a better chance than the line indicates.

[poopoo333]

No, but I think he has a better chance than the line indicates.

I agree, I believe that line is retarded. Cerrone was getting outstruck by horodecki before horodecki went full retard and took cerrone down.

[MMA_scientist]

I have never thought Kelly was any good, but he keeps surprising me. So I guess I have to give him his due... he has done pretty well. He has shown some submissions, top control, and can bang. I think Cerrone will win, but I have to agree that Kelly probably has value. Cerrone gets easier to take down as the fight wears on and I could see Kelly just grinding him down for a decision.

[edman5555]

Cerrone has succeeded against guys who are much better wrestlers than Paul Kelly. He beat Jamie Varner the second time they fought by taking him down. The first time they fought he lost by being taken down. He went the distance with Benson Henderson the first time they fought. When I looked up the Sherdog and MMaJunkie Play by play for that fight they both gave it to Cerrone. I feel like he has the ability to do well against a wrestler. I think in the Horodecki fight he let himself get taken down in the second round, at least I remember getting that impression. Which makes sense because he submitted him shortly after. Cerrone was 28-0-1 as a kickboxer and I think he has better BJJ than Kelly. I think he has pretty good wrestling, as long as he doesn't just go out there and try to fight like a madman. He's at jacksons camp and this is his ufc debut, I am hoping he comes out to win it and not to put on a show or try to sub him off his back(let himself get taken down). I'm also expecting him to be bigger, I hope at least. I know he is taller and he seems like he is one of those guys that trains really hard. He recently bought a ranch where he houses himself and a bunch of other fighters. I guess it has a training compound there. He's a tough guy that works hard and seems to have better skills than Kelyl in all areas to sum up why I bet him.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Yeah, I think he is a healthy favorite. But with Kelly having fought in the UFC a bunch of times, Cerrone's first time in the UFC, and Cerrone's penchant for fighting to the level of his competition, I just think that Kelly has a chance. The one thing Kelly has shown is solid submission defense. He has been in there with some solid grapplers and has only been subbed once. I would not be surprised to see Cerrone catch him in his triangle though. Cerrone should win though, no doubt.

[edman5555]

I certainly hope so. I went Kamikaze on him.

[edman5555]

I am hoping Cerrone isn't on his back at all in this fight. If he doesn't sub him then he just risks losing the round. I can't wait to see them weigh in. Did they face off yet? I know the main card guys did but I did not see the prelims.

[Luke]

I think Cerrone's line is way too high

[SPX]

I expect Cerrone will win, but Kelly doesn't suck. Kelly doesn't have any wins over any really GREAT guys, but Veach and O'Brien weren't slouches and everyone he's lost to has proven to be pretty decent.

One thing I will say is: "UFC level competition." I know, inb4LukeandzYcallmeaUFCnuthugger but there really is something to the term. It's the same reason why guys who do great in Japan come to the UFC and lose and why guys who would have no chance at the title in the UFC are top contenders in Strikeforce. It's also why Antonio McKee reigned as the untouchable champ for years in MFC only to come in and lose to a fighter like Jacob Volkmann in his first fight in the UFC.

The general assumption has always been that the top WEC guys will probably settle in as mid-level guys in the UFC, and the lower-tier WEC guys will end up losing and getting cut. All this remains to be seen, but this fight should be pretty interesting from that perspective. Will Cerrone come in and dominate Kelly? Will he win, but by the skin or his teeth? Or will he actually lose this fight?

Again, I do think Cerrone will win, and I hope that he does win. But the fight should be pretty instructive on a lot of different levels.

[MMA_scientist]

I certainly hope so. I went Kamikaze on him.

tell us what your bets are. You said you did something new as well. Did you go full dump on Cerrone?

[edman5555]

No but I put a lot on him. I also did 2.25u in parlays divided 9 ways all incorporating my picks for the fights I feel semi confident in. Cerrone is in all of them. They also have diff combos of ellenberger, taylor, j jones, forrest, and forrest by decision.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Any reason almost no one is on ellenberger? Rocha is just a straight BJJ guy. Ellenberger has much better wrestling and way better stand up. I don't think Rocha has even been out of the second round in any of his fights. He's fought a bunch of nobodies, granted he's subbed them all pretty quickly but I really feel this is a big step up in competition for him and it will show. Anyways I'm on ellenberger for 5u's. I think it's one of the safest bets on the card by far.

[Svino]

I'm tempted to bet Ellenberger, but I've become more wary about betting even a solid wrestler against a talented Brazilian prospect that I haven't seen too much of. The last time I tried it, I bet Gerald Harris over Falcao. The time before that, it was Escudero over Oliveira.

[Ludo]

Pretty intense staredown between Anderson and Vitor.