What line are you giving for Brown?Originally Posted by MMA_scientist
What line are you giving for Brown?
'bout -400 or -450
Yahya has pretty good takedowns, but Brown is just a huge and way too strong to go down.
Anyone else here think Guillard might be a good bet? For maybe .5u or so. He has good takedown defense. His big weakness has always been subs, which obv Dunham is good at. He seems to be getting better at that though. Guillards striking is better than Dunhams. = If Guillard can keep it standing he should win. If it does go to the ground it will be dangerous for Dunham but I don't think it will be insta-death for Guillard. He might be able to get to his feet. Either way I would not bet Dunham in this fight.
Guillard is definitely a live dog, no doubt about it. My only concern with Melvin is that he's going to get overzealous and get himself taken down. Plus Dunham is very long and rangey as a striker, and the last rangey striker with good subs Guillard fought did beat him. I'm not saying Dunhams striking is on par with Diaz' but styles make fights and Evan is all wrong for Melvin. Probably a no bet for Me.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
no bet is probably the best move. unless guillard gets up to +250
I like Dunham in this fight. I think he has a slight edge in the stand up, can bring the fight to the floor, and definitely finish on the floor. I don't buy the whole Guillard version 2.0 thing since he trains at Jackson's now.
Guillard has power in his hands and Dunham has been dropped before. Efrain dropped him with a punch. He only oustruck Sherk after Sherk gassed. Outside of that, what has he done with his hands? Guillard has 14 knockouts. I think this is a bad bet.
Bottom line: I see a path to victory for Guillard. Keep it standing. Dunham has good wrestling but Guillard isn't bad at that himself.
I was really confident in Dunham when this fight was first announced... I even said I would take him up to -400. But after watching some video and stuff, I still think Dunham will win but I am not as confident as I was. But I will take Dunham if he hit -220 or better.
His wins are as follows: Per eklund(I don't even know who that is), a SPLIT dec win over marcus aurelio(look his record up, he is good but has many losses), Efrain Escudero(he almost knocked Dunham out, dropped him with a punch), Tyson Griffin(a solid win but Tyson is much smaller than him). Dunham is good but he is overrated. Guillard is also getting better IMO.
I wouldn't say Dunham is overrated here. His line is about right here. He poses all the right problems to justify a -250ish line against Guillard. His record may not be as impressive as we'd like but the fact remains he only has one loss and it was a very close split decision to a former champion and perrenial top ten fighter in the division. I see a clear path to victory for each man, it's just less likely that Guillard will find his before Dunham can find one of his. I see Guillard winning one of three ways. He can win by flash KO, tire Dunham out and catch him in the later rounds(supposing the fight lasts that long), or finds a way to stay standing and grinds a decision out. None of these seem to be the kind of things I would lay a bet down on without having a better idea about than I do at this time.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
You are correct.
^^ok:
Guillard's wins are as follows:
Marcus Davis...due to a cut
Gabe Ruediger... the guy that has lost every significant (if that) fight he has been in
Dennis Siver... good win
Gleison Tibau... controversial win
Ronnys Torres... Torres isn't even in the UFC anymore
Waylon Lowe... took this fight on very short notice
Jeremy Stephens... split decision, Guillard didn't look too good in this fight imo, he isn't going to be able to run in, throw a punch, and run out against Dunham
OK we will see what happens.
I think it is more an issue of Melvin's losses than his wins. Melvin has knocked some guys out but he has also been dropped himself with shots, including by Joe Stevenson. I mean, Rich Clementi beat him. Melvin is just not a top tier fighter, IMO. Almost all of his losses are to grapplers. Stuffing Ronnys Torres is going to be a lot different than stuffing Dunham. Also, Melvin has been guillotine choked several times, and Dunham has definetely been working on his (see Sherk fight, he does the Marcelo-tine version with the elbow lift which is sort of the new way to guillotine).
That said, Melvin is explosive and could always catch him or even win a decision... so I agree there is a path to victory for him. But Dunham will win easily IMO.
We will see. Bet Dunham.
I'm not betting by the way. For the record, I don't know what happens. I am trying to be more analytical this year so I can make some money.
Definitely a good idea. really thinking it through and running through a process as to who can win and why and how likely each scenario is can increase your take greatly. Also, find as much video as you can on a fight your interested in and research the shit out of things helps as well.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
Yeah watching tape is a good idea. I think all the Strikeforce fights from the other night are on MMATKO if you guys want to see them. I think bouncing info off each other helps a lot too. I am doing great this year so far, I want to keep it going.
Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham (No. 10 LW)
I got Dunham by submission in this one. I do think Melvin has a path to victory, but I just think Dunham is a better fighter with more ways to win. I think his wrestling is good enough to get Melvin down, and he will do so eventually, and probably submit him shortly thereafter. At the current line though, I probably would not bet Dunham. Melvin may be worth a play, but not for me. I might put a little something on a Dunham by Submission prop. I really think Dunham has some of the best bjj in the division. He is a Megaton bb, and I was really surprised how easily he controlled Griffin on the ground, he just schooled him.
Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague
Mitrione should win, but I wouldn't coun't Hague out. I think Mitrione has more power... but with them being HW's they both have KO power. On the ground, I think it is evenly matched as well. I think Mitrione will win, but it is no bet for me at the current line.
Mark Hominick vs. George Roop
Hominick should have a striking edge, but Roop has been somewhat surprising people. Maybe Roop can strike. I am not really sure. If it goes to the ground, edge to Hominick because of his submission game off his back. At +200 though, Roop might be worth a play. I am not going to bet Hominick at -240... maybe at -140 I would bet him. They have a common opponent in Garcia, and Hominick won a split and Roop got a draw. I think it is closer than the line indicates, and Roop may have some value.
Patrick Barry vs. Joey Beltran
My rule is that I do not bet 1 dimensional fighters as favorites, ever. My other rule is that I do not bet against the Mexicutioner. Barry should win, but Barry has a way of losing fights he should win. Beltran has value IMO. His usual game plan is ground and pound and brawling... I think Barry will be able ot stuff him for at least a round which should be enough for Barry to stop him... but Beltran is nails, he hangs in there. I think he might win here. It is Beltran or nothing for me.
Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman
I like Wiman @ +160. Wiman has strong TD defense and a pretty good ground game himself. Standing, I think Wiman can win, though it is not a lock standing either. But Wiman is tough, has a good chin, good power and good takedown defense, and he has never been submitted. Cole is probably going to come out super aggressive looking to kill or be killed... I think it is a toss up, but at +160, I already have .5 on Wiman. It is not something I feel super confident about, because Cole could submit him or even out point him standing. But at +160, I think it is worth a small bet.
DaMarques Johnson vs. Michael Guymon
Both are well rounded guys, but I think Guymon is the heavier puncher and more top oriented grappler. I think it is a close fight, could go either way, but I like Guymon. Guymon has been in there with tougher guys and has better wins at this point. Johnson has lost to several top oriented grapplers, and Guymon really doesn't have a BAD loss. Every guy that has beaten him has been pretty good. Guymon beat Quinn Mulhern, which makes me think he knows how to avoid a triangle, which is Johnson's main weapon. I will probably bet Guymon at -120 or better.
Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzie
I don't know. Cody is a lot bigger than Yves, I could totally see him wrapping him up with those big long arms and forcing Yves to grapple with him. Either guy probably has value as an underdog.
Waylon Lowe vs. Willamy Freire
Lowe is a DII national champion wrestler. Friere is a MuyThai/bjj guy. Freire is going to be more dynamic on his feet and on the mat... but Lowe might be able to blanket him. Not enough information for me to bet it, but again, either guy probably has value as a dog.
Amilcar Alves vs. Charlie Brenneman
Alves is the judo guy with the dynamic striking. I thought he might be able to beat Pierce in his debut, but was horribly wrong. Brenneman is a lot like Pierce... really good wrestling, does not give up on the takedown. I don't see how this goes any differently than the Pierce fight. Brenneman should win a decision. But Alves is live, i would consider him @ +200.
Rani Yahya vs. Mike Thomas Brown
I see no way for Yahya to get this one down, and if he does, Brown is no slouch grappling. Brown should win by keeping it standing. Originally I said -400 to -450, but it is short notice for Brown, so I won't go over -400. I might try to work this into a 2 fight parlay.
Will Campuzano vs. Chris Cariaso
Again, really close fight. Cariaso did well against Rebello on the ground, but then got schooled by Barao. Campuzano has been fighting really tough guys and losing. I think Cariaso is going to have a grappling edge though. I wil consider Cariaso at close to even or better.
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