I think Edwards might be a good bet, depending on his line. What do you guys know about Mckenzie? I know he has a nasty guillotine but is that all? How is his BJJ in general? Most of his wins have come against guys with losing records or very little experience by the way. I will probably be betting Edwards at anything decent depending on what I can figure out about McKenzie. I might watch some tape as well.
Yves Edwards seems to be pretty well rounded. I would think he would beat someone one dimensional. I have a hunch Cody is. I heard his striking was bad but I haven't seen a lot of it.
Nice breakdown Scientist. I pretty much agree with you on everything when it comes to the fights that I have looked at.
I really think Dunham will sub Guillard as well. The only thing that worries me is that Guillard will catch Dunham early like Escudero did, but other then that I think Dunham will get a choke on Guillard.
I really think Mitrione is going to dominate, especially if it goes past round 1. Hague gasses fast, and with Mitrione's pace it is bound to happen. The only thing keeping me away from Mitrione is his wild exchanges he gets in..he got buckled by Beltran in one of them and I think if Hague lands clean Mitrione is going out.
I think Hominick wins this, I think he is the overall better fighter. He isn't going to stand in front of Roop and just walk forward like Korean Zombie did. Also, they share a common opponent in Garcia, but that split decision was bullshit, even though Hominick won. It was basically Garcia being dominated and still somehow getting the call on a scorecard like in the Nam Phan fight. Roop was also beating Garcia until a point deduction (IIRC it was a bullshit point deduction too).
Pat Barry should dominate the stand up, but I don't trust him. Against Hague, Hardonk, and Crocop, he would hurt them bad, but not follow up. He just freezes and lets them back into the fight. Beltran is a decent bet at around +200 imo, I think his game plan will be to take Barry down and control him/ground and pound. He did this successfully against a bigger Mitrione in their fight in round 1.
I think Mike Guymon and DaMarques Johnson is a fairly even fight, but I will be betting Guymon if he is at + odds, which I think he will be because of his recent sub losses and Johnson's bigger name.
I haven't looked at any of the other fights, but style wise I think Brenneman beats Alves.
I really don't like much on this card to bet. Depending on the odds, I am probably going to bet Brenneman and Mike Guymon. I will probably place an anchor bet on Dunham.
Last edited by poopoo333; 01-10-2011 at 02:02 PM.
Good breakdown, Scientist.
Guillard is probably a better boxer technically, but I think Dunham wins. He's better in most every other regard.
And for the record (not directed at you, Sci), Escudero did NOT "almost knock Dunham out"
I heart cock
^^ I had forgotten that Dunham was able to take Escudero down several times... Escudero is a way better wrestler than Melvin. That probably had something to do with the way Escudero was coming forward and winging punches though. I think Melvin has to stay on his bike if wants to win here... if he comes in looking to land power shots, Dunham is going to plant him on the mat, IMO. But Melvin could potentially do what he did with Stephens. I still think Dunham will get him down though.
Well he dropped him with a punch. My point is Dunham's striking isn't all that and a bag of potatoe chips. Guillard happens to have a mean punch as well. On top of that, he seems to be doing much better. A la Clay Guida.
Both guys got dropped way down the ranks after losses. Guillard went from fighting top tier guys and getting beat to fighting guys he probably would have beaten any way. He goes from fighting Stevenson and Diaz to fighting guys making their debut... IMO, Guillard has only had 1 fight that he MIGHT have lost if he was the old Guillard, Stephens. But even that was a somewhat favorable matchup. At one point, Melvin beat Siver and Tibau back to back, which is more impressive than what he is doing now IMO.Originally Posted by edman5555
Same thing with Guida... he went from fighting Florian and Sanchez to Shannon Gugerty. Guida has put together 2 quality wins in row now, but he has done that in the past as well.
Basically, Greg Jackson making fighters better is a myth. It is confirmation bias. Melvin and Guida might get better there just by virtue of actually having sparring partners. I don't think either of them were in camps at all before that.
wonder why Grispi isnt getting his title shot ?
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Something to do with the public ass rape he received on ION television.
whats an ION?
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
I agree that Greg Jackson is overhyped. I also think both of them have improved due to the fact that they have camps to train in. I think that is the main reason why they are better now than they were before. I am sure they had very little structure and consistency compared to what the get at Jacksons. Top training partners + Coaching. Guida drove around the country in a Winnabego, I am thinking there was no coach for him. You more or less summed up my reasoning, they have actual camps.
Guida has been looking good though, his last three wins were by submission. When was the last time he had three wins by sub? When he was fighting cans. This is improvement because he is showing a wider range of capabilities than he previously did. One was due to a broken jaw but he was going for the sub which aggravated the jaw.
Melvin was always a go for broke slugger if I remember correctly. Seeing him fight Stephens the way he did made me think he has changed. He didn't swing for the fences and act crazy, he showed discipline. In addition, he fought Ronnys Torres and didn't get subbed. That guy is a Nova Unaio fighter with a lot of sub wins. Almost all of Guillards losses are from subs.
All I am saying is don't look at these guys as they have been, because they have improved. I know that they havent doubled in skill or anything and they aren't about to beat everyone in the ufc. I am sure Guillard can lose to Dunham, but I wouldn't bet Dunham at the current line.
This might not make total grammatical sense. I wrote it twice and accidentally hit the back button. I am rushing through this time. Anyways, they are better than they used to be because they have actual camps. The end.
I also agree that Guillard has probably improved. He definitely looks like a better fighter now that he did around the time he fought Rich Clementi. Clementi ran through him pretty easily, but if they fought again today I would have to favor Guillard.
BTW, the question of Guillard's competition has already been posed, but I will at least say this: Guillard is 6-1 in his last 7 and three of those wins were to Stephens, Tibau and Siver. Not too shabby.
With all that said, I still think Dunham's gonna win.
I heart cock
Sat 1/22
1403 Wiman/Miller goes 3 round distance
-145 9:10PM
1404 Fight won't go 3 round distance +105 Sat 1/22
1405 Wiman wins inside distance
+400 9:10PM
1406 Not Wiman inside distance -600 Sat 1/22
1407 Wiman wins by 3 round decision
+306 9:10PM
1408 Not Wiman by 3 round decision -426 Sat 1/22
1409 Miller wins inside distance
+220 9:10PM
1410 Not Miller inside distance -300 Sat 1/22
1411 Miller wins by 3 round decision
+171 9:10PM
1412 Not Miller by 3 round decision -232
-----------------------------------------
Sat 1/22
1303 Beltran/Barry goes 3 round distance
+145 9:25PM
1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance -185 Sat 1/22
1305 Beltran wins inside distance
+329 9:25PM
1306 Not Beltran inside distance -485 Sat 1/22
1307 Beltran wins by 3 round decision
+474 9:25PM
1308 Not Beltran by 3 round decision -820 Sat 1/22
1309 Barry wins inside distance
+115 9:25PM
1310 Not Barry inside distance -155 Sat 1/22
1311 Barry wins by 3 round decision
+263 9:25PM
1312 Not Barry by 3 round decision -383 ---------------------------------------------------------------
Sat 1/22
1203 Roop/Hominick goes 3 round distance
-165 9:40PM
1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance +125 Sat 1/22
1205 Roop wins inside distance
+454 9:40PM
1206 Not Roop inside distance -760 Sat 1/22
1207 Roop wins by 3 round decision
+394 9:40PM
1208 Not Roop by 3 round decision -594 Sat 1/22
1209 Hominick wins inside distance
+235 9:40PM
1210 Not Hominick inside distance -315 Sat 1/22
1211 Hominick wins by 3 round decision
+121 9:40PM
1212 Not Hominick by 3 round decision -161 ------------------------------------------------------------------
Sat 1/22
1103 Hague/Mitrione goes 3 round distance
+140 10:00PM
1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance -180 Sat 1/22
1105 Hague wins inside distance
+385 10:00PM
1106 Not Hague inside distance -585 Sat 1/22
1107 Hague wins by 3 round decision
+485 10:00PM
1108 Not Hague by 3 round decision -855 Sat 1/22
1109 Mitrione wins inside distance
+105 10:00PM
1110 Not Mitrione inside distance -145 Sat 1/22
1111 Mitrione wins by 3 round decision
+252 10:00PM
1112 Not Mitrione by 3 round decision -355
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Sat 1/22
1003 Guillard/Dunham goes 3 round distance
+100 10:30PM
1004 Fight won't go 3 round distance -140 Sat 1/22
1005 Guillard wins inside distance
+380 10:30PM
1006 Not Guillard inside distance -570 Sat 1/22
1007 Guillard wins by 3 round decision
+454 10:30PM
1008 Not Guillard by 3 round decision -760 Sat 1/22
1009 Dunham wins inside distance
+149 10:30PM
1010 Not Dunham inside distance -189 Sat 1/22
1011 Dunham wins by 3 round decision
+187 10:30PM
1012 Not Dunham by 3 round decision -267
Joey Beltran by submission @+1500 is kind of tempting.
Thats not bad, it could happen.
Anyone think Brown will open -250 or under? What about Johnson or Guyman being +170? Just debating whether I should wait on these lines or not, because I want to bet Diaz, and I only have a few units available.
I don't think Brown will open @-250 better and I don't think Johnson or Guymon will be +170 (I don't believe either of them should even be +130).
Me either, thats were I set my lines to bet though. I wont bet Brown unless he is -250 or better and I wont bet Johnson or Guyman unless I get +170 or better. I thought Brown might, just because he just lost.
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