UFC 123 Betting Results

[MMA_scientist]

I have nothing against parlays if done right. But if the backbone of your betting is just a bunch of parlays, I think you have a problem. I know I have said it before. But there is a reason successful sports bettors do not play the parlay game much. i wish that one dude was still around that pissed everyone off. Because while his results at the time were good, I knew the crash was coming for him. i just kept quiet about it. the dude had to many parlays going on, an event was going to come that was almost going to wipe him out. scientist, you yourself was lucky that Havis pointed out the fault in your lucky parlays. I wanted to, but did not want the backlash.

I agree. I have always said the same thing... it will work for while, but then you crash. Because you are betting too much for your bankroll. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th bet on parlays are often like 9u (18%). It is too much for the bankroll. But just like any other bet, if you manage the bankroll properly, it is no different than any other bet. If I make a 5u bet on a 5 fight parlay that pays 5u. That is exactly the same thing as betting 5u at even money. the risk is the same. If you think you can find value in it, there is no problem, and you have to manage your bankroll accordingly. As long as you recognize that, no problem.

The guy that crashed and burned, I think me and SPX actually had a conversation about it, where I said, "he'll bust out eventually." Guys like that come and go... flat bettors stay around and let the edge play out.

As for boxing lines vs. MMA lines... Boxing lines are definitely higher. I look at all the lines, not just the parlay lines.

[MMA_scientist]

imo boxing parlays are better because there are so many more ways to lose in a MMA fight than a boxing one. Any one punch,slip or fall can end a MMA fight

agreed. But like I siad, I think it is priced in. A -250 guy in MMA would usually have a significant edge in skills, but then the variables in MMA make him -250. In boxing, -250 the guys might be pretty close skill wise, but the fights are more likely to play out as you see them. The gamplans and possible outcomes are way more finite.

[sbjj]

I have nothing against parlays if done right. But if the backbone of your betting is just a bunch of parlays, I think you have a problem. I know I have said it before. But there is a reason successful sports bettors do not play the parlay game much. i wish that one dude was still around that pissed everyone off. Because while his results at the time were good, I knew the crash was coming for him. i just kept quiet about it. the dude had to many parlays going on, an event was going to come that was almost going to wipe him out. scientist, you yourself was lucky that Havis pointed out the fault in your lucky parlays. I wanted to, but did not want the backlash.

I agree. I have always said the same thing... it will work for while, but then you crash. Because you are betting too much for your bankroll. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th bet on parlays are often like 9u (18%). It is too much for the bankroll. But just like any other bet, if you manage the bankroll properly, it is no different than any other bet. If I make a 5u bet on a 5 fight parlay that pays 5u. That is exactly the same thing as betting 5u at even money. the risk is the same. If you think you can find value in it, there is no problem, and you have to manage your bankroll accordingly. As long as you recognize that, no problem.

The guy that crashed and burned, I think me and SPX actually had a conversation about it, where I said, "he'll bust out eventually." Guys like that come and go... flat bettors stay around and let the edge play out.

As for boxing lines vs. MMA lines... Boxing lines are definitely higher. I look at all the lines, not just the parlay lines.

You are correct, the risk is the same(in $'s) But you still need 5 fighters to come through which means 5 fights to find value as opposed to 1. The fact is you might be better off just taking your 5 units and betting each guy individually rolling the entire amount each time.

For instance, this last UFC you won like 3 or 4 units I think(could be wrong), but i thought I heard you say that. But how many units did you risk(all together) to accomplish that. Was it like 20 or more units?

[sbjj]

imo boxing parlays are better because there are so many more ways to lose in a MMA fight than a boxing one. Any one punch,slip or fall can end a MMA fight

agreed. But like I siad, I think it is priced in. A -250 guy in MMA would usually have a significant edge in skills, but then the variables in MMA make him -250. In boxing, -250 the guys might be pretty close skill wise, but the fights are more likely to play out as you see them. The gamplans and possible outcomes are way more finite.

In boxing you sometimes have squash matches. A champion might fight a guy not even in the top 10. MMA fighters TEND to fight competition at least somewhat close in comparison. It would be like Anderson Silva defending his strap against Scott Smith.

[MMA_scientist]

You are correct, the risk is the same(in $'s) But you still need 5 fighters to come through which means 5 fights to find value as opposed to 1. The fact is you might be better off just taking your 5 units and betting each guy individually rolling the entire amount each time.

For instance, this last UFC you won like 3 or 4 units I think(could be wrong), but i thought I heard you say that. But how many units did you risk(all together) to accomplish that. Was it like 20 or more units?

yeah, I had 18u in play. But it would not be uncommon for me to have 20u in play straight bets either. I have done that several times. And I have had similar results several times.

To me, it doesn't make a difference how many units I have in play on a particular card, that should not matter. A card is just an arbitrary cut off... If I am going to lose, it won't save me if it happens all on the same card or not. If I think there is value to a bet, I am going to make it, regardless of how many units I already have at risk.

[Luke]

I disagree boxing lines are higher than MMA line if anything I think its the other way around . The lines you are seeing for the most part that are high are tune up fights for boxers, something like a top 10 fighter vs a guy ranked 1500. You dont even see lines for MMA fights like that . I mean what would a Shamrock line be vs a guy that I could beat with 4 weeks of training ? -2000? What would Anderson Silva be vs some local guy ?-50000?

The only lines that are put up in MMA are ufc ,bellator,SF and other big promos. The fights that have a named fighter vs a no one dont have lines in MMA if they did you'd see -1000 lines everywhere.

I think MMA lines are much more inflated than boxing . In MMA you might have 2 top 5 fighters fighting each other and the line might be -600(penn-edgar) in boxing if 2 top 5 fighters fought the line more than likely wouldnt be -600 . Even Machida -Rampage was 2 top 4 fighters and the line was -250 to -300 .
So I actually think MMA lines are much more inflated .

[Luke]

Ok going back and forthis getting us no where. Lets vote yes or no on parlays,props etc in the trackers?


I say no

[SPX]

No

[Mr. IWS]

[sbjj]

No

[Ludo]

No

[Svino]

I certainly think it makes the most sense to track props and parlays, because it's part of betting. (Keeping track of straight won/loss doesn't mean much at all to me for moneyline betting. All that would do is encourage everyone to bet favs. )

On the other hand, these long parlay strings may be too much to expect Zak to keep track of, so I'd say let him make the call.

[Luke]

I certainly think it makes the most sense to track props and parlays, because it's part of betting. (Keeping track of straight won/loss doesn't mean much at all to me for moneyline betting. All that would do is encourage everyone to bet favs. )

On the other hand, these long parlay strings may be too much to expect Zak to keep track of, so I'd say let him make the call.

What svino means is :


NO

[SPX]

What svino means is :


NO

LOL

[poopoo333]

Yes.

[Luke]

^^^^^ SPX go find my ban hammer

[SPX]

^^^^^ SPX go find my ban hammer

It's in use right now but you can get it from this guy when he's done with it:

[Luke]

^^^^^ SPX go find my ban hammer

It's in use right now but you can get it from this guy when he's done with it:

lol wtf

[YoungTRK484]

My honest opinion is that parlays are sucker bets, but again, just me. And that ban hammer pic is tremendous!

[SPX]

lol wtf

And that ban hammer pic is tremendous!

Truth!