WEC 53 Discussion

[SPX]

Main card

Lightweight Championship bout: Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis
Bantamweight Championship bout: Dominick Cruz vs. Scott Jorgensen
Lightweight bout: Donald Cerrone vs. Chris Horodecki
Lightweight bout: Bart Palaszewski vs. Kamal Shalorus
Lightweight bout: Zhang Tie Quan vs. Danny Downes


Preliminary card

Lightweight bout: Jamie Varner vs. Shane Roller
Bantamweight bout: Brad Pickett vs. Ivan Menjivar
Bantamweight bout: Eddie Wineland vs. Ken Stone
Lightweight bout: Danny Castillo vs. Will Kerr
Lightweight bout: Ricardo Lamas vs. Yuri Alcantara
Bantamweight bout: Renan Barão vs. Chris Cariaso

[SPX]

No odds up yet, but a few thoughts:

1. I'm taking Pettis as a dog. Something tells me the line's gonna open close, like Pettis @ +125. I'd really like to get him at +150 or better, but I think bettors still aren't firm believers in Henderson. He's never been a big favorite, but hopefully wins over Cerrone x 2 and Varner will push his line up this time. I'm not saying Pettis will win, since I always get screwed betting against Bendo, but he's got great stand-up and BJJ and if he can outwrestle Roller then he should give Bendo trouble in that department as well.

2. I also like Cruz, Cerrone, and Varner. Shalorus may be nice to get as a dog, but I have no idea how that line will open.

3. I hope the Chinaman wins again.

4. LOL at Varner being on the undercard.

[MMA_scientist]

Shalorus won't be a dog. I think Shalorus will be like -200.

I am with you, I have no idea how Bendo/Pettis plays out. I would like to see Bendo win, but Pettis is a tough style match up. Bendo is a good wrestler and decent bjj guy, but I don't think he is so far ahead of Pettis on the ground that a takedown will necessarily mean victory.

[SPX]

Shalorus won't be a dog. I think Shalorus will be like -200.

If he is, I will probably take Bartimus. He has looked pretty decent lately. Shalorus likes to stand and bang and Bartimus should be less powerful but more technical.

I am with you, I have no idea how Bendo/Pettis plays out. I would like to see Bendo win, but Pettis is a tough style match up. Bendo is a good wrestler and decent bjj guy, but I don't think he is so far ahead of Pettis on the ground that a takedown will necessarily mean victory.

Pettis's win over Roller was very impressive. There were very few moments in that fight where Roller was in control. I actually think it's possible Pettis is going to come in and make Bendo look silly. But it could go the other way, too.

Personally, I really hope Pettis wins and fights Edgar (who I also hope wins).

[poopoo333]

Henderson/Pettis should be pretty close. Henderson was almost caught in a good amount of subs by Cerrone, I have a feeling Pettis will end up slapping on a triangle and winning.

I am rooting for Jorgensen but Cruz has the edge.

Why is Cerrone fighting Horodecki?

Kamal should win easy.

Chinese balding guy will probably win.

I hope we get to see Varner/Roller.

[SPX]

Why is Cerrone fighting Horodecki?

It does seem like a fairly odd matchup that Horodecki does not yet deserve, but he is coming off two wins and it seems like everyone else is either coming off a loss or tied up with other fights.

Who would you prefer to see him fight?

Kamal should win easy.

Bartimus has looked pretty good lately. I wouldn't count him out. I think this will largely depend on whether Kamal wants to strike or wrestle. Bart's striking isn't bad and Kamal was really getting handled by Varner. The draw was bullshit.

[poopoo333]

[poopoo333]

0.5u Pettis

[Luke]

Bendo might be worth a bet at -170 . I expected the line to be higher

[SPX]

Damn, lines are everywhere. I also jumped on Pettis for half a unit. Wish I had gotten him at +155.

[SPX]

Bendo might be worth a bet at -170 . I expected the line to be higher

Why do you think he wins?

[Luke]

Bendo might be worth a bet at -170 . I expected the line to be higher

Why do you think he wins?

I thought the line was going to be much higher, around -250 to -275. Beating a one dimensional Roller doesnt impress me that much . I need to rewatch some videos first before making a final decision

[SPX]

I thought the line was going to be much higher, around -250 to -275. Beating a one dimensional Roller doesnt impress me that much . I need to rewatch some videos first before making a final decision

Pettis is a bad motherfucker. This fight's hard to call but you should be impressed with him. He's excellent all around.

[MMA_scientist]

Pettis is slick. Love watching him, and wouldnt be suprised at all to see him win here.

[sbjj]

Holy Shit! I think Cruz @ -200 is a freakin Christmas present.

Jorgenson is good and fun to watch, but Cruz is going to handle him. Big bet coming up.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, Jorgensen's only chance is if he can get Cruz to the mat imo. Benavidez couldn't do it, not sure if Jorgensen can either.

[sbjj]

Yeah, Jorgensen's only chance is if he can get Cruz to the mat imo. Benavidez couldn't do it, not sure if Jorgensen can either.

I agree, he will have to consistantly get him down and keep him down. and I just do not see him doing it. I actually think Jorg. will spend more time on his back in this match up.

[edman5555]

Jorg is a pretty good wrestler but a good bit smaller than Cruz. It kinda reminds me of the Cruz-Benavidez matchup.

[poopoo333]

Jorg is a pretty good wrestler but a good bit smaller than Cruz. It kinda reminds me of the Cruz-Benavidez matchup.

Jorgensen is a better wrestler then Benavidez. Does anybody think Jorgensen will be able to get Cruz to the ground? I think it will be somewhat competitive on the feet, but Cruz definitely has the advantage imo. I am really surprised Cruz doesn't have a higher line, maybe it is because he won a split decision in his last fight against a similar opponent (whatever judge had that fight for Benavidez is a moron)?

[edman5555]

Yeah Cruz clearly won that fight. Does anyone here think Jorg can outwrestle Cruz? Jorg finished in the top 12 in the NCAA (according to wiki).