UFC 128 Newark, NJ March 19 Rua vs Jones

[edman5555]

Yeah thats funny I actually agree with you about Benavidez, I think he is really really good. I was hugely impressed with his last win. I feel exactly what your saying about Faber, a lot of his is hype. The WEC hyped him as their poster boy. He doesn't have any huge wins but I do think Mike Brown is good. I read somewhere that he was having some sort of medical issues that he thought caused his losses. That might be bullshit but it could be true. He looked like shit in the Yahya fight, like he had no energy/will to fight back. Something was off there. Either way he is a solid wrestler with a bb in bjj and heavy hands.

I think Faber will take this guy down and sub him but who knows what will happen. It is a bet that I regret taking at the odds I did. He opened at -195 but I didn't get him until -420. I parlayed him with JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance. That is my base for this event, I am parlaying just about everything with that. I see no way in hell that fight goes for 25 minutes.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah thats funny I actually agree with you about Benavidez, I think he is really really good. I was hugely impressed with his last win. I feel exactly what your saying about Faber, a lot of his is hype. The WEC hyped him as their poster boy. He doesn't have any huge wins but I do think Mike Brown is good. I read somewhere that he was having some sort of medical issues that he thought caused his losses. That might be bullshit but it could be true. He looked like shit in the Yahya fight, like he had no energy/will to fight back. Something was off there. Either way he is a solid wrestler with a bb in bjj and heavy hands.

I think Faber will take this guy down and sub him but who knows what will happen. It is a bet that I regret taking at the odds I did. He opened at -195 but I didn't get him until -420. I parlayed him with JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance. That is my base for this event, I am parlaying just about everything with that. I see no way in hell that fight goes for 25 minutes.

yeah, but Brown got KO'd my Manvel way early on... I don't know about Faber, I think he is going to win but I don't think he is that great of a fighter. But Wineland isn't a full time fighter and his time is over IMO. Faber should take him down.

I agree, Shogun/Jones can't make it 25 mins grappling at Jones' pace, one of them will gas out and get pounded out or subbed. Jones gassed in his only 3 rounded and we know Shogun gets tired grappling as well. In a grappling oriented match, it would be surprising to see it go 25 mins at LHW with ANY 2 fighters. But Jones and Shogun are both finishers and Jones pushes a fast pace, it is not going to make it 25 mins, I fully agree.

[edman5555]

I think JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance is the best bet on the card. No way in hell it goes 25 minutes. I don't Jones will gas either, at least until the fourth or 5th round

[edman5555]

I brought this up before, Jones was very very new to MMA when he had the 3 round fight your referring to in the UFC. He had only been competing for about 2 years, maybe less. I think his cardio then is def not equal to his cardio now. He has been training with a professional camp for a while now. That should make a big difference. On top of that, he is just coming off a camp and going into another one. Shogun has also had a long layoff. I expect Shogun to get fatigued if anyone. We'll see what happens. Either Shogun gets a ko/sub early on or Jones will wear him out and TKO him

[trotterz]

I think JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance is the best bet on the card. No way in hell it goes 25 minutes. I don't Jones will gas either, at least until the fourth or 5th round

what line did you get for it?

[Mr. IWS]

anyone got a stream for this?

[MMA_scientist]

I brought this up before, Jones was very very new to MMA when he had the 3 round fight your referring to in the UFC. He had only been competing for about 2 years, maybe less. I think his cardio then is def not equal to his cardio now. He has been training with a professional camp for a while now. That should make a big difference. On top of that, he is just coming off a camp and going into another one. Shogun has also had a long layoff. I expect Shogun to get fatigued if anyone. We'll see what happens. Either Shogun gets a ko/sub early on or Jones will wear him out and TKO him

Jones hasn't had to fight for more than a few minutes since the Bonnar fight. It is just not possible to grapple for 25 mins and not get gassed, since I do not think Jones has any intention of standing with Shogun (if he does, LOL at Jackson), it is going to be some hard grappling for at least a round or two. Both guys are going to gas, but yeah, probably moreso with Shogun. I actually can't wait for this fight.

It is also NCAA wrestling finals Saturday night on ESPN... I am going to have to DVR wrestling. Looking forward to the weekend.

[poopoo333]

I really hope Shogun KTFO Jon Jones.

[MMA_scientist]

^ me too.

Followed: 4u on Shogun/Jones does not go the distance @ -350

[SPX]

What do you think about Faber and Benavidez?

What does anyone know about Loveland?

I can't find any vids. His record is proof enough that he's very beatable, though.

[SPX]

Griffin and Stevenson are tiny.

I don't know that I'd say tiny. Griffin's pretty thick and Stevenson used to fight at WW.

Caol Uno . . . now THAT was tiny.

[MMA_scientist]

What does anyone know about Loveland?

I can't find any vids. His record is proof enough that he's very beatable, though.

Trains out of team Quest, former HS wrestler, heavy hands, likes to stand. He beat Toner, which is evidence to me that he is pretty tough. But I think Benevidez is the #2 BW and should win via superior ground game.

[edman5555]

He trains out of Team Quest, Oregon and from what I read that place is having a lot of problems.

[edman5555]

I got JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance for -320 and -350. I already have quite a bit on it. I am going to wait until the other books open lines for it before I place anymore bets on it. I want to see what I can get on it.

[SPX]

I am little more worried about Faber... I mean, was Mike Brown ever that good? Or was Faber just fighting weak opposition? He had some trouble with a lot of the guys he fought, even Pulver lasted a full 5 with him. But the flip side is that Wineland is in that group too, I don't think he is very good.

I think you're being a little unfair. Faber is very good and he has wins over quality comp, including the current BW champ. Choking out Assuncao and killing Mizugaki are also impressive. And Brown may not be a GREAT fighter, but he's a pretty damn good one.

What that said, I do agree that the level of competition has gone up. Guys like Aldo and Hominick are clearly on a whole other level than guys like Jeff Curran and, as much as I hate to say it, Pulver.

As for Wineland, his vids are notoriously difficult to find so I have only seen him fight a handful of times. But he has good boxing and is pretty well-rounded. He's also a former champ. He may never hold a belt again, but I think you're going too far when you say that you "don't think he is very good." I wouldn't be surprised if he's top 10 in the division. And while I think Faber will win, Wineland should have a technical advantage in the stand-up and if he can sprawl-and-brawl then he could win a decision. I don't how good his wrestling is, though.

[SPX]

I brought this up before, Jones was very very new to MMA when he had the 3 round fight your referring to in the UFC. He had only been competing for about 2 years, maybe less. I think his cardio then is def not equal to his cardio now. He has been training with a professional camp for a while now. That should make a big difference. On top of that, he is just coming off a camp and going into another one. Shogun has also had a long layoff. I expect Shogun to get fatigued if anyone. We'll see what happens. Either Shogun gets a ko/sub early on or Jones will wear him out and TKO him

You may be right about Jones, but it's all speculation.

The last time Jones went three rounds: Bonnar.
The last time Jones gassed out: Bonnar.

Coincidence? Hmm. . .

[edman5555]

Jon jones first pro fight was in April of 2008. His fight against Bonnar was in January of 2009. Thats 9 months. Since then he has had 5 fights in the UFC. I am sure he is on another level now.

[MMA_scientist]

I think you're being a little unfair.

Probably, but I just don't think the lighter divisions have had the level of talent because the spotlight and money were not there, until the last couple years. I mean, Kid Yamamoto was the #1 fighter for years in that division, all the best fighters were Japanese until about 2 years ago. I think the talent is just now startng to develop in those divisions. So when Wineland was WEC champ, that didn't mean a whole lot, no one, including me knew anything about the WEC until it was on Versus and Zuffa bought it. That said, it is all relative. When I ask if MTB was ever actually good, I mean, he was ranked #3 or 4 PFP not too long ago. In retrospect, that was ridiculous.

[MMA_scientist]

Jon jones first pro fight was in April of 2008. His fight against Bonnar was in January of 2009. Thats 9 months. Since then he has had 5 fights in the UFC. I am sure he is on another level now.

It is just not physiologically possible for a 205er to grapple the way he does for 25 minutes. The pace is too high. Whether he gasses will probably depend on how Shogun responds to the takedowns. Bonnar was getting up and Jones was doing big flashy throws, that takes it out of you no matter what. There is a reason that wrestling matches are only 6 minutes.

[edman5555]

Yeah the rankings are always out of whack but don't forget he is a rough stylistic matchup for Faber. Good wrestler with better hands and a black belt in bjj. Faber did better the second time as well, though he still lost. Also Fabers wins have almost all been finishes. 7 kos, 13 subs, 3 decs, 1 dq.

As long as Faber doesn't do anything stupid like try to stand and bang we should be ok.