My problem with betting Fedor in this fight--especially at his line right now--is that not only is Fedor a small HW, but Silva is fucking huge. On top of being huge, he's also skilled.Originally Posted by poopoo333
Everyone seems to be talking about the fact that he got cracked by Kyle, but what about the fact that he got cracked and . . . was still in the fight? Nigga's obviously got a monster chin. If anything, at +325 I think Silva's the play.
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Just looked at Ray Sefo vs Valentijn Overeem
Ray Sefo is old..40 and he has been fighting since before 1990, 40 is old alone, but with that many years of fighting the guy is real old in "fight years" .Sefo is 2-0 in MMA...probably should be 1-1. He beat Min Soo Kim (3-7) in 2005. When he fought Kevin Jordan (40 yr old, 11-9) he got dominated in round 1. He was taken down and was a fish out of water on his back. In round 2, Jordan injured his knee on a takedown attempt and Sefo got the win by TKO (injury). Sefo is a K1 kickboxer so he will probably have the striking edge. But don't let the K1 label fool you, he is no Semmy Schilt, Sefo pulled a Jens Pulver and went on a 6 fight losing streak in K1 from 2007-2008. Also I read on Sherdog that the Overeems have a problem with Sefo and Ubereem will be in his brother's corner..not sure if this is a motivating factor or not in this fight
Valentijn Overeem isn't exactly great either. He is 28-25 and also pulled a Jens Pulver in 2002-2003 and dropped 6 straight. Overeem has been subbed 15 times, but I don't think we have to worry about Sefo subbing Overeem (unless sub to strikes, Overeem has subbed to strikes twice, and forfeited once). But Overeem has 16 sub wins, and he has subbed a couple of good guys (Couture and Babalu).
I think Overeem is going to win this based on grappling. He will have the edge on the mat, and I think he will probably get the sub. But Overeem is a very inconsistent fighter, just look at his record. Both of these guys are irrelevant for sure. I'll take Overeem if the line is real low, like -125 or better...and I'm not even sure about that.
Any input?
According to wiki Overeem is training at Golden Glory. If that's true he should be in a good position to deal with a kickboxer like Sefo. Valentin is pretty inconsistent though, he has a lot of losses. I wouldn't take him unless he has a good line. He should hold the advantage in this fight though. He can take it to the ground and sub him, if he chooses to do that.
Silva by dec .25u to win 1.63u
Couldn't agree more. Fedor has a tendency to get put in bad positions with bigger fighters. From Hunt holding him down for half a round to Brett Rogers landing some decent ground and pound after pinning him against the fence.
If Bigfoot can get a takedown and get on top fedor could be in trouble. Given the odds the only decent play is a value bet on Silva imho
Has your opinioon of Fedor changed since the Werdum fight? Werdum beat Bigfoot not too long ago... but no one was betting Werdum even though he was +500 at one point...
Werdum was able to hit takedowns and stuff Bigfoot repeatedly in that fight. I will say that Bigfoot was getting the better of him in the striking. Bigfoot also gassed out after the first round. If he has to grapple, he will gas.
That said, it is Bigfoot or nothing for me. I have always thought Fedor's grappling was overrated.
Last edited by MMA_scientist; 02-07-2011 at 09:25 AM.
^^^ Well, if nothing else, that allure of this-man-cannot-be-beat! is no longer there, admittedly. But I would actually favor Bigfoot over Werdum to beat Fedor, both now and before the loss to Werdum.
Werdum can't strike that well and I also don't regard him as a power guy. I can just see Bigfoot finding his way on top of Fedor just like he got on top of Kyle and going all HULK SMASH on his ass and somehow either getting a TKO or an all out knockout. Fedor may very well end up outgrappling Bigfoot if he does end up on the ground, but the nigga's just so little. Werdum wasn't that much smaller than Silva, so the situations are that's comparable.
Last edited by SPX; 02-07-2011 at 01:00 PM.
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^ I guess I can see that, as that is how I actually thought Werdum was going to beat Fedor, via top control. But Bigfoot does not have great takedowns. I think Fedor is going to KO him.
I actually have a unit on Fedor to win the whole tournament, so I obviously think he will probably win. But I'm not 100% confident and I'm for damn sure not betting him at his current line.
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Even money, I would pick Fedor to win the tourney. But it really just depends on how the matchups play out. I am really hoping someone gets hurt so Cormier can find his way into the tourney.
Shit, I got him at +140 to win the whole thing.
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You know what, scratch that, because Bookmaker doesn't have any record of that shit. I swear I remember making that bet, though.
They have Fedor to win the tourney at +170 now, though. I'd definitely get on that shit if I had the money in my account.
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I didn't mean "even money", I meant I favor him over everyone else. It is not worth a bet @ +170 IMO. He will probably be even or maybe even an underdog to Overeem, depending on how they each look in their fights. Then he could be close to even again in the finals. You could just take your 1u and parlay it on the 3 fights and you would probably come out way better than +170. Even if he is -300 in all 3 fights, you are getting him @ +110 to win it.
I am hoping Overeem fights Fedor and is a dog to him.
You just confused me.
For one, he's not -300 in the Bigfoot fight at any book, and the best I can get him at is -525.
For another, why would you want him at +110 if you can get him at +170?
Also, I'm not sure about him being an underdog to Overeem. He's lost once in over 30 fights. He's still Fedor, and his current line against Bigfoot reflects that.
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He is -370 on BM right now. I was just saying that EVEN IF he was -300 every time (I hadn't looked at the Bigfoot line, I thought he was like -330), you could STILL get him at + odds. But he is not going to be -300 again, barring an injury. I doubt he is more than -200 at any time against Overeem. He might be -300 against Werdum though. Whoever wins 2 in a row on the other side of the bracket, they will probably come in much less than -300, especially if it is Barnett. I think his lines will look something like -370, -170, -220 = +190 AND you get the benefit of changing your mind if Overeem looks awesome or something. Just to me, to lay down a 3 fight parlay without knowing who he is fighting, I would need better odds. Given that you can probably get better odds or at least comparable odds just by betting the fights individually, there is no reason to bet it.
The flip side is that he may get easy matchups, maybe an alternate, his odds could be considerably worse.
Yeah, the win the whole tournament prop odds suck.
I am going to bet Fedor later this week if his line drops
I don't even know how you calculated that.
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1 / 3.7 = .27
1.27 / 1.7 = .74
1.27 + .74 = 2.01
2.01 / 2.2 = .91
2.01 + .91 = 2.92 units minus the original 1u = 1.92 units gained off a 1u wager +192
or http://www.madduxsports.com/parlay.html
Lol. Didn't we go over this last year?
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
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