It's weird that AA and Kharitonov are fighting at EV odds, and yet Arlovski is +1150 to win the tournament and Kharitonov is +1800. I can't figure that one out; it's not Arlovksi is some particularly great matchup for Kharitonov.Originally Posted by MMA_scientist
Looked at Arlovski/Kharitinov one last time. I am not going to bet it. I am thinking about the decision prop: decision -315, stoppage +235
Sergei is a badass. Of his 17 wins, only Werdum made it out of the first round. 17 wins, 16 first round. 21 fights, 2 decisions.
Arlovski has fought 23 times, 3 decisions (with one of them being Werdum who has only been finished once, by JDS). The other two are Sylvia in and Bigfoot.
44 fights, 5 decisions between the two of them. 11:1
But then if you look at their records when they have faced top 10 guys: Sergei has 2 decisions and 2 stoppages (both against Overeem). Arlovski has 4 decisions and 3 stoppages (2 against Sylvia).
I am thinking there might be value to the decision prop @ +235, especially since Arlovski does not like to exchange at all anymore. He pretty much retreats at every exchange.
Maybe I am just searching for a bet... thoughts on the decision prop?
My guess is that it is because Arlovski's takedown defense is better. The assumption is that Barnett is going to beat Rogers and I think Arlovski is a better matchup for Barnett than Kharitinov... but honestly, it still doesn't make sense for there to be that much difference. A lot of people don't know Kharitinov, maybe he is not getting ant action...
I was going to place a bet on AA when he was +400 or better to win by decision but it's dropped. I don't think he has that "killer instinct" anymore and he is going to be careful if he does hurt Sergei and not swarm in. I picture AA moving a lot, and using leg kicks to keep Sergei at bay. But I am staying away from this fight as well unless AA gets to like +130ish. I don't see value at all in this line
1u on Fedor by KO/TKO +117
Deal with it.
Went ahead and took Villante too. 1u to win .58u
BE artlicle pushed me over the edge.
Your a bettin foo! I decided not. To arb out on sergei. Alis overeem called him to beat arlovski. Maybe I was right.
Fighters don't know shit about who will win. Overeem's statement is somewhat self serving since Kharitinov beat Overeem twice.
I feel good about my bets. I am glad I passed on AA though.
I was kidding about your bets. I thought the same about overeem though overeem has beat him too.
Arbed out of my Overeem and Villante bets this weekend. Didn't feel comfortable with them. I win like a buck if Villante wins though. Too bad I didn't wait until now to arb out, I had no clue Griggs would get up to +200.
Also, Ubereem is now favored to win the tourney. He is @+135 to win and Fedor is @+170.
I hope Fedor kills bigfoot in R1 and Overeem barely beats Werdum.
I take it you want to get Overeem @ underdog odds?
Werdum is going to beat Overeem. So...
Especially if Fedor wins this weekend. The MMA Gods will never allow Scott Coker to be successful with his promotional plans.
Well if Werdum and Fedor have to face each other again, it's certainly not a total bust. I mean, that's Fedor's rematch with the only man who's really beaten him.
I heart cock
They really can't lose if they manage to make all the matchups happen, worse case, they get a new contender and some new matchups.
But really, the worst thing that can happen is if Overeem and Fedor both win, because I don't think Fedor's camp has any intention of fighting Overeem and that will screw up the entire tourney. They are still talking about the olympic style drug testing... all based on their suspicions. It just won't happen. I am hoping Werdum pulls it off so we at least get the rematch.
U think fedor will pull out of an overeem fight?
I don't think Fedor will, but I think M-1 will get crazy with the drug testing stuff, which is all based on just thier hunch that Overeem is juicing (he has never tested +), and I think Overeem will say no to the testing, and then shit will just fall apart. It is the same thing that has already happened with that fight.
It always amazes me how someone with nothing to hide would say no to a test
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