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1-2-11
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note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.`
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Ness
Perfect Storm Steelers -5.5
Vegas Insider GOY Seahawks +3
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Ben burns
oakland under 43.5 ,
houston -3 ,
san fran -6 ,
denver +3 ,
seattle +3
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Guaranteed Pick: Scott Spreitzer
NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH:
Reason: I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday afternoon. I had the Bears in their week-3 MNF tilt with Green Bay and we cashed the ticket. But the game was more of a Packer meltdown than it was a great performance by Chicago. In fact, if you'll recall, Jay Cutler fired at least three or four incompletions that could easily have gone for interceptions. But none of that really matters now. Chicago has won the division and know they'll be playing in a couple of weeks. If the Buccs beat the Saints and the Falcons lose to the Panthers, the Bears would be the NFC's top seed. Whatever happens, Chicago will know their fate when this one kicks off because both of the teams they're intereted in kick off at 1 PM ET, while the Bears/Packers get underway at 4:15 PM ET. We very well could have a situation where the Bears are resting key players, while the Packers are playing their regulars for their playoff lives. If Green Bay wins, they're in the playoffs. It's as simple as that. A loss means they need some help. Green Bay allows just 15.8 ppg, which ranks 2nd in the league. They have 22 INTs on the season, rank 5th against the pass and have 41 sacks. Whether the Chicago offensive regulars play or not, I expect the sometimes sluggish Bears' offense to struggle throughout. I had Green Bay on these pages last week and we watched them slice through the Giants' defense. The 5th ranked passing offense should have little trouble against Chicago with four receivers presenting nightmare matchup situations. Greg Jennings looked impossible to cover last week and the offensive line has looked like a brick wall protecting Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay averages over 33 ppg at home this season, with four wins coming by double-digits. This presents a problem for Chicago whether the starters play or not. The Bears are on a 0-6 ATS slide against in road games against teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play. They're just 2-11 ATS on the road against teams that average at least 7.5 passing yards per attempt. Meanwhile the Packers are on a 12-3 ATS run in the second half of the season going back to last year. It's a mismatch. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday. LOCK AND LOAD
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lary ness
DIVISON DOMINATOR IS GREEN BAY
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WAYNE ROOT-ROOT TO WIN
PERFECT PLAY* NO Saints -7
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Wayne Root:
Perfect Play: Saints
No Limit: Texans
Pinnacle: Lions
Millionaire: Broncos
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DR BOB
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 23 INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 26
01:15 PM Pacific, 02-Jan-11
The Colts don’t necessarily have to win this game since they can make the playoffs with a loss by the Jaguars, but the public certainly sees this as a must win game and the point spread reflects that. There is no other reason for the spread to by 9 ½ points in this game other than the Colts’ being in close to a must win situation. However, there is usually value in going against teams in late season must win games, as teams in must win (or will be eliminated from the playoff race) situation are just 50-85-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Last week the Chargers needed to win to stay alive and they lost straight up to the lowly Bengals. Jacksonville was not officially in a must win since they could have stayed alive with a loss if the Colts also lost, but the Jags were basically in a must win and they didn’t cover the spread either in their overtime win against Washington. While this game is not necessarily a must win, it certainly has that feel (like Jacksonville last week) and the spread is high because of the Colts’ incentive. If the Colts could play well whenever they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation to begin with, so their extra incentive isn’t likely to have any effect on their performance in this game. The Titans are out of the playoffs, but teams out of the playoffs are pretty good bets the final couple of weeks since the public seems to be under the impression that such teams simply give up and don’t play hard – which is not the case. In fact, teams that are 2 games or more below .500 are 199-167-6 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team at .500 or better. While that’s not a trend to necessarily base a bet on, it certainly makes my point that bad teams don’t give up on the season as many fans think they might.
Despite Tennessee’s 6-9 record the Titans are still a pretty good team that has actually out-scored their opponents 22.4 to 21.1 points per game this season while playing a schedule that is 0.3 points easier than average (which makes them 1.0 points better than average based on compensated points). The Colts have out-scored their opponents by 3.0 points per game while playing a schedule that is 0.2 points tougher than average, so Indy is 3.2 points better than average based on compensated points. That’s only a 2.2 points differential and Indianapolis by 5 or 5 ½ points would be a reasonable spread in this game based on that analysis. However, the Colts are favored by 9 ½ points because this game is being viewed as a must win game, which makes absolutely no difference. So, we clearly have some value on Tennessee in this game.
Taking a look at this game from a yardage perspective leads me to the same conclusion. Tennessee has averaged 5.4 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I actually rate the Titans at 0.2 yppl better than average with big play WR Kenny Britt back healthy after missing some games during his team’s losing streak. Kerry Collins has averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per pass play in the games when Britt played (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and Collins had a pretty good game against the Colts in week 14 in Britt’s first game back from injury. Indianapolis is 0.4 yppp better than average defending the pass for the season but the pass defense has been only average without starting cornerbacks Jerraud Powers (IR) and Kelvin Hayden, who will miss his 5th consecutive game with a neck injury. The Colts are 0.3 yards per rush worse than average defending the run, so the Titans’ Chris Johnson should have a good game with the extra motivation of being left off the Pro Bowl team (he’s pissed and should be especially focused this week). My math model projects 5.5 yards per play for the Titans in this game but Tennessee is a big play offense that doesn’t sustain a lot of drives, so their projected yardage is just 306 yards.
The Colts’ offense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season, as Indy’s 5.7 yppl has come against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Indy is not quite as good throwing the ball without injured WR Austin Collie, who averaged 9.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season (649 yards on 71 pass attempts), but the running game is a bit better with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes back in action (although they’re still worse than average running the ball). I still rate the Colts at just 0.1 yppl better than average with their current personnel but I rate the Titans’ defense at 0.1 yppl better than average also. Tennessee is actually 0.4 yppl better than average defensively for the season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), but that unit hasn’t been as good in the second half of the season and using their last 7 games rates them at 0.1 yppl better than average, which is the rating I decided to use in my math model. My math projects a modest 5.4 yppl for the Colts in this game but they should run a lot of plays and I get 400 total yards for Indy.
While I have the Colts running 19 more plays than the Titans are expected to run I still favor Indy by just 2 ½ points based on the projected stats since Tennessee has a huge advantage in special teams. Titans’ coach Jeff Fisher’s job could be on the line, which should motivate his players to play hard, but Fisher said he’s going to get some of his younger players more playing time while still trying to win this game against a hated division rival. That’s a bit of a concern and will keep me from making this a Best Bet unless the line goes up to 10 points. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more and I’ll take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes up to +10 points.
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Big Al
4* Panthers +14.5
4* Colts/Titans 'under' 48
4* Texans/Jaguars 'under' 46
4* Cowboys/Eagles 'under' 43 (this play will be cancelled if the line dips lower)
3* Packers -10
3* Lions -3
3*Texans -3
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Larrry ness baskets, la clippers, rice , stanford, arkasas, ben burns ice, fla panters, under 5.5 fla panters, colorado aval
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