Scientist,any possible prop parlays? They are all out. I was going to do Not Shields by (T)KO, Not Hominick by sub, Not Couture by (T)KO and Not Bocek by (T)KO but it would have been 5u to win 0.5u so I didn't go through with it
Scientist,any possible prop parlays? They are all out. I was going to do Not Shields by (T)KO, Not Hominick by sub, Not Couture by (T)KO and Not Bocek by (T)KO but it would have been 5u to win 0.5u so I didn't go through with it
I am still looking at it... I was hpoing some more props woould come out for the undercard. They only have props on 4 fights, they usually have 5 fights. "Not Machida by submission" and "Not Hominick by submission" I feel fine about... I don't really like to do the TKO props, because of early stoppages and just volume stoppages. Like what if Bocek gets mount or bank mount and just keeps raining down shots (which I think is a very real possibility), same with Couture.Originally Posted by poopoo333
But I probably going to do one, for a few units, a little higher risk than usual because I can't find anything for a magic parlay that is a guanteed winner. I mean "not Daley by submission" against Diaz- those are the kinds of things I like to see for my 12u bets. Machida won't submit Couture, that is tight. I doubt Hominick submits Aldo, but Hominick does have a triangle...
I am going to have to get creative. We got time though. Gimme some ideas. How about Not Shields in rd 5? I am staying away from Henderson/Bocek... there is no result that would surprise me there.
The more I think about this fight, the more I think GSP is going to win with relative ease. I mean, Shields has only one path to victory, he has to get the guy with the best takedown defense in the world down and keep him there for 5 rounds. GSP may try to keep it standing, but if Shields is just keeping him on the fence, GSP can always just change the gameplan and put Shields down. GSP may have some trouble putting him away but I can't see how Shields wins this.
I looked at that too actually. I think that is a good one to include for sure
GSP by sub
not a good idea.
remember the mayhem-shields fight, with 5 more seconds to go in the round, it would have been mayhem by rnc
^^I bet on GSP by sub @+1100 lol
Shields wishes he had the standup that Fitch has. Shields has absolutely no chance standing. It is takedown or bust. The only question is whether Shields' wrestling has gotten better than GSPs somehow. I know that is all he has been working on- he has had Sonnen and Askren in there... But GSP knows Shields is going to be trying to just get in on a double leg and never let go. I have to think he is going to be ready for that.
While I think GSP takes this more than 9 times out of 10, I do think Shields has several possible ways to win:
1) Takedowns and top control
2) Wall-and-stall
3) Miracle sub
#1 Seems like the least likely of the three to me. I wonder if GSP's jiu-jitsu is overrated.
^^#2 is the most likely imo
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
- Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts
- Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia
- Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
- John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson
- Pablo Garza vs. Yves Jabouin
Any thoughts on these?
We know that GSP's top game is solid... and even way back in 2004 he was able to sweep Hughes. He passed BJ Penn's guard kind of easily when they fought last. I think GSP has a very good passing and submission defense. We have not seen him on bottom for more than a second... I guess the question is what should Shields be able to put GSP on the ground when Fitch, Koscheck, Hughes, Sherk, Trigg all failed? The only thing I guess you could say is the Shields is fully committed to a grappling match. He has never willingly stood that I can recall. If he gets stuffed, he keeps trying.
I suppose Shields could catch a guillotine choke or try to force some wild scrambles... but that assumes GSP wants to fight on the ground. But why should he? GSP has a history of fighting to the weakness of the other guy, I am sure he is planning on standing unless forced to grapple. I also read where Danaher (GSPs bjj coach said Shields has the grappling equivalent of a knock out punch in his guillotine choke. So I am sure they have worked a lot on the guillotine defense.
The cage pressing is the only thing that concerns me really. I don't know what GSP will do if Shields tries to just hold him on the cage and magnet to his legs. I don't know... GSP is the obvious rightful favorite. But maybe it is best to just stay away at the current line.
It is tough to bet these canadian cards because they take all these mid level canadians and match them up with guys they might be able to beat. I think all of those fights are close to even. Makdessi looks like a solid prospect, but Watson has that wrestling card to play. I don't think Watson will be able to hold him down and will probably get knocked out in stunning fashion. They are all really evenly matched IMO. I am not going to bet any of them most likely.
Something to consider on Pierson. I just rewatched Pierson/Riddle and while he is strong with a good stiff jab and power in his strikes he clearly has conditioning issues. He laid a beating on Riddle in round one but even at the end of round two while peppering for half the round he was still visibly tired. I think Ellenberger takes this fight by outworking him.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
This is how I see it as well. Shields is not some invincible wrestling machine. Even without mentioning the end-of-the-round choke, Mayhem was able to take a couple of rounds off Shields when they fought.
Fuck that. I'm going to make some money off this fight.
I heart cock
Ok, I agree. I can't make my mind up here. On one hand, I envision GSP just coming out and decimating Shields in humiliating and spectacular fashion. On the other I see a fight that is hard to score because Shields just hangs on his legs the whole time. He is a slightly worse wrestler than Koscheck IMO, but he is way more crafty. I could see him trying to create some scrambles or going for a leg lock to try to change things up.
True, Mayhem gave Shields a decent fight, but he clearly lost IMO. Shields got stuffed by Lawler several times too... And we know about Kampmann.
You know what, you are right. I am letting the hype get to me. GSP is going to push his shit in.
Last edited by MMA_scientist; 04-21-2011 at 05:28 PM.
Menjivar will beat Valencia rather easily.
I kinda figured this too, but I am guessing the line will be ridiculous.
Agreed. I am actually expecting round 1 being really competitive and high paced, then Ellenberger taking over in rounds 2 and 3. Riddle seemed content to stand, and I think Ellenberger will definitely shoot if he is losing on the feet. He is relentless too, so I doubt he will get stuffed and just give up.
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