Ufc 130

[edman5555]

It is called a motherfuckin magic parlay. It is the inverse of the wisemann special.



Thanks... They have been working out great for me. The only downside is that they are pretty much the backbone of my betting strategy now. If 5d ever goes under or bans me, I am not going to be able to bet because I don't know where else to find these props. I don't think they offer all the props in Vegas... ?

I can't take full credit for it though, poopoo actually gave me the idea.

The odds on the Magic parlay props I wanted went to hell. Do you usually see these fluctuate a lot Scientist?

[SPX]

I still question this reliance on props.

In my opinion straight bets should still--and should probably always--be the cornerstone of any betting system.

[edman5555]

Yeah they will be but these are a helpful new tool.

[poopoo333]

Not Maynard, Story, Rampage, Nelson, and Stann by sub is like -400. Thinking about adding Pac man to this if I go through with it. Stann by sub kinda worries me but I don't think Santiago will gas like Massenzio did. And I don't see Nelson subbing Mir.. I actually think that fight may go to decision

[MMA_scientist]

The odds on the Magic parlay props I wanted went to hell. Do you usually see these fluctuate a lot Scientist?

Yeah I am pretty sure they move with the line. If the favorite becomes more of a favorite, the props move too... I think it is actually fairly complicated, but to answer your question: yes, they fluctuate a lot in both directions. Sometimes a submission prop will fall like 1000 points though, from -2300 to -3500, whereas the line might have only moved 30 points. But sometimes they get better by a lot too.

[MMA_scientist]

I still question this reliance on props.

In my opinion straight bets should still--and should probably always--be the cornerstone of any betting system.

I agree, but only because of the limited availability. Value is value.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Maynard, Story, Rampage, Nelson, and Stann by sub is like -400. Thinking about adding Pac man to this if I go through with it. Stann by sub kinda worries me but I don't think Santiago will gas like Massenzio did. And I don't see Nelson subbing Mir.. I actually think that fight may go to decision

I would trade Maynard out for Edgar... that is what I had last time (Not Edgar by sub) and he scared me once with a guillotine, but the line difference is worth the risk IMO. Not Edgar by sub is -1750, not Maynard is -5400.

Also not sure not Not Ramage by sub is -2000 and Not Hammill is -6800. I guess Hammill could tap to strikes...

[MMA_scientist]

You can get "not edgar/rampage/nelson/stann by sub" for -416

If you add Story in it comes down to -338


I went ahead and pulled the trigger on the edgar/rampage/nelson/stann for a couple units just in case...

[MMA_scientist]

Nelson is not going to submit Mir. Mir might submit Nelson though. Edgar did scare me last time with a standing guillotine, but I think it is worth the line difference. Rampage hasn't even attempted a submission in 10 years. I don't think he could submit Hammill anyway. We've talked about Stann... but I think Stann is going to want to force a standup fight and I really don't think he can sub Santiago anyway. He only got Massenzio because Massenzio was half dead from fatigue.

[SPX]

I agree, but only because of the limited availability. Value is value.

I agree.

I just don't want to get used to that shit when there's apparently only one book on earth that has the range of props to make it a viable strategy, and that one book is notoriously picky not only about who they're going to take money from but also how they're going to take it.

[Mr. IWS]

[poopoo333]

I would trade Maynard out for Edgar... that is what I had last time (Not Edgar by sub) and he scared me once with a guillotine, but the line difference is worth the risk IMO. Not Edgar by sub is -1750, not Maynard is -5400.

Also not sure not Not Ramage by sub is -2000 and Not Hammill is -6800. I guess Hammill could tap to strikes...

I don't see Hamill tapping from subs, and I think Edgar by sub is more likely then Maynard by sub. I honestly won't be surprised if Edgar wins ITD in this fight. Flame away edman and everyone else

[edman5555]

Consider yourself flamed. But seriously I guess he good guillotine him. It is funny though I was thinking about that today and I came to the conclusion that he wouldn't try a lot because that usually means giving up the takedown. The fight prob goes the diff sonot giving any tds is very crucial. Examples: kamp shields and dunha, sherk

[poopoo333]

Not Mosley by 12 rd decision/Not Maynard by sub/Not Rampage by sub/Not Nelson by sub/Not Stann by sub/Not Story by sub, 4u to win 1.1u

[trotterz]

Not Mosley by 12 rd decision/Not Maynard by sub/Not Rampage by sub/Not Nelson by sub/Not Stann by sub/Not Story by sub, 4u to win 1.1u

not so sure about not story by sub in here. I could defenetely see story taking alves down more than once, and alves giving story his back to try to get back up, could easily result in a rnc.
this is pretty much the only one that I could see happening

[MMA_scientist]

Alves has been subbed several times before, but he defintely looks better on the ground now. I doubt Story subs him, but I could definitely see it happening, he likes that arm triangle... if he can wear Alves out, I could see it. But seriously, it won't happen.

[poopoo333]

UFC 130 Fight Card: Cody McKenzie Out, Gleison Tibau in

[Svino]

UFC 130 Fight Card: Cody McKenzie Out, Gleison Tibau in

Aw, I like Cody. Hope he's not injured.

[Thewisemann]

I am now working with a 5u bankroll, + have .9u on stann and 3.22u on reem

[edman5555]

Jorge Santiago is no joke, at least on paper that is. Reem? You mean Allistair over Werdum?