1-10-11

[Mr. IWS]

ADAM MEYER

6* VIP CLUB* Oregon Ducks +2

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY DEL GENIO

Marquette -3

[Mr. IWS]

tom stryker

3 oregon +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRRINGO

cbb
6 notre dame +3 ½

nba
boston -9
chicago -10

nhl
los angeles -180
st. Louis -150
boston +115

cfb
6 UNIT* auburn -2 ½

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* CFB Auburn -1
20* NBA Celtics -8½
20* CBB Marquette -3
10* CFB Auburn under 73
10* NBA Pistons +10
10* CBB Austin Peay -10½

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

40 Dime Oregon

20 Dime Oregon / Auburn Over

[Mr. IWS]

jeff benton

Monday's BCS Title Game Winner ...

40 Dime college football release on OREGON plus the points against Auburn in the BCS championship game. Heavy money has come in on Oregon over the past 24 hours, drapping this number down to Auburn -1 in one spot here in Vegas, though the conrsensus pointspread both here and offshore is still Auburn -2. Although I expect at least a seven-point Oregon win, don’t get caught taking a bad number here. Get the most value available, which as I pubdish this selection is the Ducks +2.








OREGON





Let’s go over a few undisputed facts.





Fact: Last year, Oregon was a four-point favorite over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and lost outright 26-17, finding the end zone just twice after scoring 43, 47, 42, 44, 44 and 37 points in its last six regular-season games (all against Pac-10 opponents).





Fact: Multi-threat Ohio State quarterback Terrell Pryor torched the Ducks defense for 338 combined rushing and passing yards.





Fact: Auburn QB Cam Newton is better than Terrell Pryor and, playing in the SEC this season, obliteaated much better defenses than Pryor did playing in the Big Ten.





Fact: Speaking of the SEC, this league has won the last four national championship games, and it is 6-0 SU and ATS when playing for the whole enchilada. (No Pac-10 team other than USC has ever won a BCS title).





Fact: Auburn beat five opponents this year ranked 18th or higher in the national polls; Oregon beat one.





Fact: Despite all those widely-known truths – and believe me, what I just detailed isn’t any kind of secret – this pointspread has plummeted from Auburn minus-3 to 2½ to 2 and now – in most spots – 1½ or even 1. And this isn’t the result of a bunch of Ducks fans rolling through Las Vegas on their way to Glendale, Ariz. It takes sharp money to move a number that much over such a short period of time (and much of the line movement has come in the last 48 hours).





So why do you think this is? Why do you think a team from the “weak” Pac-10, one that got dominated by a Big Ten opponent in the Rose Bowl 53 weeks ago, is getting so much support even though they’re facing the big, bad SEC and big, bad Cam Newton? Answer: While the Tigers will have the single best player on the field tonight, Oregon will have the better overall team – we’re talking offense, defense and special teams. And for everyone who argues “yeah, but the Ducks haven’t faced an athlete as dynamic as Newton,” I’ll corunter with “yeah, but Auburn hasn’t seen an offense as fast-paced with as much electrifying speed/home-run-hitting ability as Oregon.”





And to me, the Ducks’ quick-tempo offense will prove to be the difference as they wear down an Auburn defense that has been had multiple times this season. Yes, the Tigers held South Carolina to just 17 points in the SEC championship game on Dec. 4. However, that was more a product of the Gamecocks self-destructing than anything else. Prior to that, Auburn allowed 27 points (24 in the first half) to Alabama), 31 to Georgia, 31 to Ole Miss, 43 to Arkansas, 34 to Kentucky and 27 to South Carolina in a regular-season contest.





You know what the common thread was in each of those six games (plus a 17-14 win at Mississippi State in Week 2 and a 27-24 overtime home win over Clemson)? Auburn trailed in every single contest – and often trailed BIG – barely escaping against Mississippi State, Clemson, at Alabama (28-27), at Kentucky (34-31) and at home vs. South Carolina (35-27). Even the 65-43 win over Arkansas was misleading (Arkansas led 43-37 with less than 12 minutes to play).





Of course, Auburn supporters will point to those eight wins as proof that the Tigers are resilient and NEVER out of a contest. I’ll acknowledge that … so long as those who make that argument will agree that A) Auburn has been playing with fire all season long and B) the reason the Tigers had to rally so frequdntly was because their defense was so often terrible, particularly a young secondary that got burned countless times by some pretty pedestrian quarterbacks (outside of Alabama’s Greg McElroy and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, Auburn really didn’t face a quality passer all season).





Well, Oregon’s Darron Thomas (2,500 yards, 28 TDs, 7 INTs) is an outstanding passer and he’s absolutely loaded with weapons to his left, right and behind him. Thomas led an offense that accomplished a slew of incredible feats this year (including scoring 43 points or more 10 times in 12 games). The most impressive stat? The Ducks had more than 20 scoring drives of three plays or less this season!





While we’re on the topic of impressive stats, although it got lost in the shadow of its incredible offense, the Oregon defense was outstanding this year, allowing just 18.4 points and 327.8 total yards per game. Admittedly, the Ducks did surrender 29, 32, 31 and 31 points to Arizona, USC, Stanford and Arizona State. But they still managed to win each of those games by double digits (42-31 at Arizona State; 52-31 vs. Stanford after trailing 24-0; 53-32 at USC; 48-29 vs. Arizona).





In fact, while six of Auburn’s victories were by eight points or less (including two by a field goal and one by a single point), Oregon was challenged just once: a 15-13 win at Cal. It absolutely was a horrible performance by the Ducks that night in Berkeley … but it was their ONLY one of the entire season!





Bottom line: I’m not going to dump on Auburn, because it has had a tremendous season, and there’s no question Newton is one of the most exciting college football players of all time. But this Oregon team is on a mission. It is on a mission to avenge last year’s Rose Bowl stinker against USC. It is on a mission to avenge that 19-8 loss at Boise State to start last season. It is on a mission to prove it (and the Pac-10 in general) can play championship-caliber football.





And even though I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks got down early (they started slow several times over the second half of the season), I have no doubt in my mind they’ll be the one left standing in the end.





Oregon 38, Auburn 28