UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[MMA_scientist]

That is pretty much how I see it, except I think it will be a rape on the ground if it stays there. Brock has proven his mettle on the mat, he can grapple and his ground and pound hurts. I am sure JDS is very capable on the ground, but a few years training bjj is not going to prepare him to deal with a bigger stronger high level wrestler. If it stays on the ground for any length of time, I expect a 1 sided beat down. I don't think JDs will survive personally. But maybe his takedown defense and standup ability is awesome.

I would love to see a 30 second KO though, complete with Brock circus monkey cartwheel.

[SPX]

For some reason, I was thinking 5 rounds... but if JDS gets stuck on the ground, I see no reason why Brock won't stop him. I really think it comes down to can he or can he not get and keep JDS on the ground. If so, Brock wins easily and probably devastatingly. If no, then JDS wins easily and probably devastatingly. Given the known quantities though, it is really just a guess whether JDS will be able to stuff the takedown or escape to his feet.

The only truly "devastating" finish Brock has ever had was in the second fight against Mir.

Consider his other fights:

Mir 1 - loss via submission, though it probably should've been a TKO win
Herring - decision
Couture - TKO after catching the old and undersized Couture with a punch; no way does he knock JDS down like that
Carwin - submission against a zombie; no way does he submit JDS like that
Cain - devastating TKO loss

I just don't see Brock having a track record to suggest that he will finish JDS.

[poopoo333]

Couture, Carwin, and Cain=wrestlers. You can't compare JDS to them. Styles make fights.

[poopoo333]

I would also like to point out that JDS slowed down significantly against Nelson, a fight he was dominating. This was a striking match with a few clinch "battles". Brock is going to push the pace and try to grind JDS out on the mat. I think JDS will probably slow down a lot against Brock.

[Mr. IWS]

On paper, the whole; "Brock will take him down" game plan seems all well and good, and I think he can/will take JDS down at some point in the fight, but that dude goes to shit as soon as he takes a couple punches, and after seeing him get hit by Carwin and Cain, I'm not sure what will be different in Brocks approach to actually getting punched in the face now.

I have done a complete 180 on Brock. I really thought the guy was the future, but if He can't take a punch, and keep coming forward in the fight game, He better go find something else to do. And after this fight with JDS, he may do that.

[MMA_scientist]

I just don't see Brock having a track record to suggest that he will finish JDS.

He finished Carwin, Couture, and Mir and that scrub he fought in his first fight. We can downplay the finishes, but Mir and the scrub are the only guys that got stuck under him too. Herring gave his back every time, but Brock did not want to risk losing the back or ending up on bottom, so he never put his hooks in and went for a choke and just stayed there and lumped him up. I am just saying, if JDS gets stuck underneath or tries to play guard against Brock, he is going to look like Mir did, but probably worse because Mir is most likely a better grappler than JDS. If Brock has trouble controlling him, JDS will get his chances and probably KO him easily. But I just don't know how many chances JDS is going to get, that's the question mark in this fight. Brock did get a shot off on Carwin (he got stuffed) before he got rocked. He did get shot off on Cain too. Grapplers looking to shoot can almost always get at least one clean shot off before a real strike is landed. The only question is what will JDS do with it.

Bottom line Brock has finished 4 of 5 out of his wins. He has 7 fights, and 6 of them have not gone the distance. JDS has 13 fights, and only 1 decision. I don't think this is going to a decision.

[edman5555]

I will take Brock in this. Fuck Bodog for posting lines like 6 months in advance. Really.

[SPX]

Couture, Carwin, and Cain=wrestlers. You can't compare JDS to them. Styles make fights.

JDS has his BJJ. It's not like he's ONLY a striker. And if he had no clue about the ground then he would've been put down and kept down by both Gonzaga and Nelson.

[SPX]

I'll also say this: From what we've seen, it looks to me like Brock's striking is a lot shittier than JDS's wrestling.

[zY|]

Given how Brock takes punches, and how JDS delivers them, this is not a great matchup for Brock. I seriously doubt he keeps JDS down for long if he gets it there. And once JDS gets up Brock's confidence will drop significantly.

[edman5555]

I'll also say this: From what we've seen, it looks to me like Brock's striking is a lot shittier than JDS's wrestling.

Good one.

[edman5555]

Given how Brock takes punches, and how JDS delivers them, this is not a great matchup for Brock. I seriously doubt he keeps JDS down for long if he gets it there. And once JDS gets up Brock's confidence will drop significantly.

Do you think that Brock might come back a little stronger from this? I mean he has gotten his ass kicked standing twice in a row. The first time he came back during the fight, the second he got his ass kicked. Maybe that ass kicking will wake him up a little bit and convince him to train his standup a lot more.

Note: Brock may have never legitimately had his ass kicked in his life before he fought Cain. He has been a Monster his whole life, who would want to fight him. It isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Either way a couple of things are pretty evident. Brock can't stand with JDS or he will lose. JDS doesn't have the wrestling that Brock does. We don't know if Brock can hold JDS down.


I think we are somewhat divided on the board here. I personally think that Brock can get JDS down. What makes anyone think JDS can wrestle? It's not impossible or anything but just because Cain kicked Brock's ass it doesn't mean that Brock is can all of a sudden. He is a big ass monster of a man that can wrestle.

[Thewisemann]

Too many ??S in this fight, im staying away unless I get at least +150 on someone. I am leanig towards Brock getting him down and smashin him. I would love to see JDS KO him though.

[SPX]

What makes anyone think JDS can wrestle?

If he literally had no wrestling ability then he would've gotten outgrappled by both Gonzaga and Nelson.

Having been trained by the Nogs, he obviously has some BJJ skills. And BJJ could be seen as a form of wrestling, as it's Judo-based, and Judo is actually considered a form of wrestling.

[MMA_scientist]

If he literally had no wrestling ability then he would've gotten outgrappled by both Gonzaga and Nelson.

Having been trained by the Nogs, he obviously has some BJJ skills. And BJJ could be seen as a form of wrestling, as it's Judo-based, and Judo is actually considered a form of wrestling.

I don't think anyone is saying he has NO grappling skills. He is a brown belt in bjj and he obviously has some takedown defense. I think the question is whether his takedown defense is GREAT, which it will have to be to stop Brock from taking him down. If he gets on the ground, he is going to again have to be GREAT to out grapple Brock on the mat. There is no reason to think his takedown defense is anything other than "good" at this point. I mean, Roy couldn't get Justin Wren down either. And Gonzaga could not get Schaub down, other than that, I don't even remember him trying to take anyone down. Those are not the sternest tests of takedown defense...

So while JDS's wrestling may be better than Brock's boxing, that does not mean he should win. The question is really whether JDS's takedown defense is better than Brock's takedown offense. Because Brock is not going to stand with him, no matter what. He will clinch him, dive at ankles, he may even try to pull guard... he won't stand in front of him.

I just think JDS's ground game is still a question mark. His takedown defense is obviously good enough for most guys, but he still hasn't had to fight a wrestler.

I don't like either guy as a favorite, I would start thinking about either guy @ +150

[Thewisemann]

I don't think anyone is saying he has NO grappling skills. He is a brown belt in bjj and he obviously has some takedown defense. I think the question is whether his takedown defense is GREAT, which it will have to be to stop Brock from taking him down. If he gets on the ground, he is going to again have to be GREAT to out grapple Brock on the mat. There is no reason to think his takedown defense is anything other than "good" at this point. I mean, Roy couldn't get Justin Wren down either. And Gonzaga could not get Schaub down, other than that, I don't even remember him trying to take anyone down. Those are not the sternest tests of takedown defense...

So while JDS's wrestling may be better than Brock's boxing, that does not mean he should win. The question is really whether JDS's takedown defense is better than Brock's takedown offense. Because Brock is not going to stand with him, no matter what. He will clinch him, dive at ankles, he may even try to pull guard... he won't stand in front of him.

I just think JDS's ground game is still a question mark. His takedown defense is obviously good enough for most guys, but he still hasn't had to fight a wrestler.

I don't like either guy as a favorite, I would start thinking about either guy @ +150

I agree with you 100% scientist. JDS has good td defense, but i dont know if its good enough to stop Lesnar. And that pretty much is the key to betting this fight. I have to get +150 either way.

[poopoo333]

I also agree with scientist 100%. Being good in bjj doesn't mean you can stop a great wrestler from taking you down and controlling you. See little nog vs bader, and even nog vs brilz

[Luke]

I actually thought this line would open at -200 and was looking to get on Brock at +175 or higher.

I dont think there's any doubt Lensar is going to get JDS on the ground ,its whether he can keep him there or not is the question

[zY|]

Brock is a can. JDS by assassination.

[Luke]

Brock is a can. JDS by assassination.

So bet all you got on JDS