Well I am pissed because I sucked last night and lost all my winnins from friday night. I do not like any of these bets because I can see ways for both guys to win. All the dogs look live. I kinda don't like that. I prefer it when I can look at a fight and say "this guy should definetly win"
I don't know what I'm going to bet, but offhand I like most of the favorites. At current odds, I like Diaz, Melendez, Aoki, and maybe Kyle as a dog.
Diaz hasn't shown many signs of weakness recently at all, especially in the way he beat the crap out of Noons. Daley has put in some pretty mediocre looking performances. It's hard to see if his head is really in the game.
Melendez beat Kawajiri once before and he has improved substantially since that fight.
Fancy Pants vs. Magic Pants is a little harder to call, but I think people are taking away a little too much from Aoki because of his loss to a great fighter in Melendez and the bizarre kickboxing-MMA New Year's incident.
I used to think Mousasi was underrated but I've turned around completely because of his cardio. I want to see him win a fight that goes into late rounds before I bet on him at favorite odds against a credible opponent.
Diaz vs Noons was pretty close. I wouldn't say Diaz "beat the crap" out of him.
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I guess I need to go rewatch that fight. I remembered it as pretty one-sided but maybe that was just about him exceeding expectations in the striking.Originally Posted by SPX
I am having trouble reading the Crusher/Melendez fight. Yes Melendez beat him last time out and has improved but so has Kawajiri. not to mention Gilbert hasn't fought since mid april of last year while Kawajiri has stayed active. Plus he just manhandled Thomson at new years eve.
Anybody have thoughts on Beerbohm/Aoki? I know Beerbohm can hold his own on the ground but will it be enough against someone so aggressive with subs?
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
It depends on which round your referring to. For the most part Diaz was getting the better of things for rounds 1, 3, and 5. Noons showed signs of life in rounds 2 and 4 but got the holy fuck kicked out of him in round 3. I remember they considered stopping the fight at one point because Noons was opened up pretty bad.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
I bet on Diaz vs Noons and I wasnt sure when it went to decision I was going to win or not.
I remember a lot of rds being close ,I'd have to rewatch it again .
LINK??????
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
This is weird but I remember you saying after the fight something like "If Diaz loses this decision I'm never betting MMA again"
and
http://www.megavideo.com/?v=Q1UC1YML
Daley might not be in good enough shape for this fight. He said before he wanted to fight for the title in june or july so he could get in better shape. That was after missing weight for his last fight. Daley will be relying entirely on his standup in this as well. If it touches the ground diaz can sub him pretty easy. Diaz is a good boxer with a good chin. I can see Daley winning by ko/tko or maybe even dec but it isn't worth betting on. Might as well hold out for something else on another card..too many coin tosses on this card.
Beerbohm is a good all around fighter and Aoki is a wiz on the ground. This is another coin toss. If Beerbohm can avoid getting subbed he can win but Aoki is an animal with subs. No bet for me.
Gegard vs Mike Kyle. This one is up in the air as well. Kyle can hit really hard and he is a lot bigger as far as I understand. Gegard did beat that kickboxer in K1 recently though. I feel like he can avoid getting caught but who knows. Also Kyle might be able to muscle him around the cage. I don't know what Gegards takedown defense is like nor do I know what Kyles takedowns are like.
I don't know shit about Tatsuya. I'm not looking anything up. Too late for that. Melendez did beat him before though.
There are some other fights happening on this card as well. I know Jorge Masvidal is fighting KJ Noons..according to bestfightodds.com alert section. A good area to look at to see upcoming fights. I bet Masvidal comes out as a dog and I think he has a chance. His standup is pretty good and he can land takedowns. He hung in there with Paul Daley and almost beat him.
Now that I mention him almost beating Daley is makes me think Daley is not really that great. Sorry for the mid speech revelation. On top of that, his knockout over kampmann doesn't impress me as much after watching Diego "beat" him/land a lot of shots. He knocked out scott smith who to my amatuer eyes has no boxing defense/limited technique, blocks punches with his face. He def has a lot of ko power though. That can't be overlooked.
Couple things: Daleys offense in this fight is going to be a shitload of leg kicks and punches. He isn't going to be trying to take down Diaz because Diaz is a slick bastard on the ground. Maybe he will incorporate a takedown or two at the end of the round to get some points or something but it won't be happening a lot. Anyone disagree?
Paul Daley leg kicks: those are going to be to wear down Diaz. Daley missed weight( I am pretty sure) for his last fight and said he wanted to wait until june/july to get in "championship shape" for the fight. He is fighting the beginning of April. If Daley gasses by the 4th or 5th round, how much of a difference are those leg kicks going to make? I am going to call those semi-moot because he isn't going to be wearing out diaz in this fight(most likely).
So that leaves boxing. Diaz is a really good boxer and he has a good chin. I think Daley CAN knock him out but he is going to have a hard time. It's not easy to knock out a good boxer with a good chin by outboxing him which is what I think he will have to do and is probably his only avenue to victory. Outside of a head kick or extre luck on the judges cards.
Diaz can even hurt Daley standing. Agree or disagree? He hung in there with KJ noons and outboxed him didn't he? I didn't see the fight..KJ is a pro boxer, probably a crappy one but still. I looked up his record, he only has 6 round fights on it. What is the deal with that? Anyways, I am picking Nick Diaz to win. He has the advantage stylistically if you ask me. I think he can probably hang on the feet with Daley and he can def win on the ground. Daley can't even shoot for a takedown in this one. He is going to be striking and only striking. Daley will have to do the guessing game where he wonders if a strike is coming or a takedown attempt. Anyways I know I just wrote a long story but let's hear your opinions..
Daley missed weight for his last fight as well as one in the end of 2010.
Wall of words..........
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Pretty sure I said that because MMA decisions had been so bad lately. Just because I scored it for Diaz doesnt mean it wasnt close enough the judges to screw it up. Odd though that you remembered but I do remember saying something all those lines
Last edited by Luke; 03-27-2011 at 08:40 PM.
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
The Fight Metric numbers are pretty close.
In every round the difference between total number of landed strikes is 11 or less.
http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/3058
I heart cock
I just watched rd 3 again ...........what the hell are you talking about?
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Anyone have an opinion on my wall of words?
I agree that Masvidal should have a chance against Noons. I'd probably even take him at +150 or better.
I heart cock
Just rewatched it . Rounds 4 and 5 were close enough bad MMA judges could have gave them both to Noons. Thats probably what I was scared of going to the cards . I know I scored it for Diaz but that doesnt mean anything when it comes to some of these judges
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
I'm just now starting to look at this card
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
1) I don't know about Kyle's takedowns, but I would call Mousasi's TD defense weak.
2) Daley would be crazy to ever bring this fight deliberately to the ground. The question is, how hard will Diaz try to get it there and will he be successful? I'm guessing it stays standing, but might fear of getting taken down discourage Daley from overusing the leg-kick?
I know Diaz's takedowns aren't the best, but Masvidal was able to take Daley down without a whole lot of problems.
Daley seems to have good TDD for a minute, but if his opponent is relentless then they will eventually get him down. If Diaz makes that his plan then I have little doubt that he will win. But who knows if that will be his plan.
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