Yeah I can't imagine Tito winning but those are good points you brought up. Baders takedowns don't seem to be that good. IIRC, Hamil only took him down when shot in hard and fast. I don't know if Bader can do that, he probably can.
I guess I feel a lot like Trotterz. I bet the fight goes the distance though because Tito hits like shit and has a great jaw. Bader is kind of a clunky puncher as well, though he does seem to hit really hard.
I don't think Bader is that far ahead of Tito in any one area... but there is literally nothing Tito does that Bader doesn't do better, faster, and with gusto. Tito has pillow hands, his takedowns suck now, and he gasses. What is he going to do? Maaaybe win a decision in a kickboxing match... Basically it is not so much that Bader is going to blow him away, it is more that Tito has no offense.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
As bad as Tito has done in the past, he hasn't been getting obliterated by anyone. He is usually in all his fights, he just always manages to lose.
I have a thing about his gassing though. I feel like every fight is the fight in which he might finally get it under control. He is always coming off of a long layoff or injury. I think this is the first fight in a long time he is not coming off an injury/layoff. He had his previous fight against Hamill and another training camp. I think this could be a better Tito than we have seen in a long time but I do not know. He is so fucked up/injured it is hard to tell. Either way Trott made a good point, Bader usually fights a close fight against his opponents. I don't really want to bet Bader at that line and I can't see betting Tito unless it is by decision at like 7 to 1 odds or something. Maybe a unit on that would be worth it. He almost beat Rashad.
Tito by decision..
Not tito inside the distance.
Not Bader by submission.
Fight goes the distance.
Oh, I wouldn't bet on Bader at that line either. I am just saying, Tito has no offense. His weapon is ground and pound, that is all he has. He can't ground Bader, so he has no offense. His defense is good so he can stay in fights, he just doesn't have any means of actually winning them.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Do you guys think there's value in -470 because I sure don't
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Tito is live IMO. I might play him by dec.
No. But I don't think Tito can win either.Originally Posted by Luke
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Tito by SD
Why not?
He stole rd 1 from Hamil and I think he can do the same against Bader .All it takes is a close second rd and Tito could win the fight , we all know how bad MMA judges are .
And check that its -500 now not -470
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
I'd bet Bader at -300 or better. Not -500.
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Yeah I wouldn't lay 5 to 1 on a fight like that. I just don't think Tito will win. Tito is the guy with value imo, just because he is +400 and it will probably get better
I think the value is with Tito.
Say what you want about that clown, he has been fighting all the top guys, and he never gets blown out. All the way back to Rashad (fuck you and that point deduction), up through Forrest, Machida, and Hamill.
You can't really say Hamill's a top guy, though. I mean, Rampage basically just proved he wasn't.
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Negro please
I feel you, but at the same time, Is Bader really that good? He squeaked by old ass Nog, and got raped by Jones just like everyone else has. You can make the case that he was losing to Jardine before he breathed on Keith's jaw and KO'd him.
No way he should be that big a fav.
I'd say he's obviously not at the top of the division, but Tito just can't seem to win a fight these days.
I honestly would like to see him get a win, though. I wish they'd give him someone who doesn't really have any wrestling ability.
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I bet at this point no one wants to be "that guy" who loses to Tito.
I mean, the first person that Tito actually beats will have a stigma that stays for life.
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They will never give Tito someone he could beat. They are not interested in building Tito up, why should they. He is old and shot. If he can't beat relevant guys, and he can't, there is no point in paying him. I mean, who cares if he beats... I can't think of anyone he could beat right now... but you get my point.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Stephan Bonnar
plus I honestly don't think they like Tito. He talked so much shit about them. He basically referred to Dana/Fertittas like they were some piece of shit stuck on the bottom of his shoe. They just took him back in because he is a draw and they are a business.
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