UFC 132 July 2nd

[Thewisemann]

Went from an 8u roll a few weeks ago to a 37u roll now. Gonna cash 22u out

[SPX]

I think Siver is definitely more comfortable and just a better fighter. But he was outstruck fairly soundly by Pearson and fought a close fight with Fisher.

I like Siver a lot and am a fan, but I think Melvin would just be too fast, too technical, and too powerful. And Siver's not really a submission threat like Diaz or Roller were, so I don't think that that's a weakness he could exploit. I think we'd be looking at a pure striking match, with Melvin either knocking him out or taking a clear UD.

[Vandelay]

Pass. I'd rather see siver vs guida and guillard vs the winner of miller-henderson.

[Luke]

I thought Wiman won too.

BOL

negged and reported

[Vandelay]

Also, on a sidenote, the magic prop parlay wins yet again. Poopoo was more confident in this one than I was, but it worked out well.

[poopoo333]

Also, on a sidenote, the magic prop parlay wins yet again. Poopoo was more confident in this one than I was, but it worked out well.

I am so happy I took Not Bader by sub instead of Not Tito by sub

[SPX]

^^^ Yeah. That fight proved how horribly wrong things could go though when betting on things that will "never" happen.

[Luke]

Also, on a sidenote, the magic prop parlay wins yet again. Poopoo was more confident in this one than I was, but it worked out well.

I looked at the last 4 events last night and out of approx 44 fights (88 fighters) there were 3 subs(I think) in those 4 events , so recently you could have just parlayed pretty much any fighter and won a "not by sub" bet . I have no idea what the ratio normally is or if 1 sub an event is normal I just know the info for the last 4 events.

[Luke]

On another note I'm just too chicken to lay the juice on the parlays even though it seems like they hit quite often

[Vandelay]

Yea when tito subbed him, I second guessed myself because i was pretty sure i put not bader by sub. Anyhow bader made a rookie mistake in going for that takedown immediately. Had ortiz been in the same spot, I think he's smart enough to protect his neck in addition to bader probably not goin for the sub.

[Luke]

Has anyone ever checked the ratio of subs per event on average? I'm just curious as to if I should start giving the "not by sub" parlays a lot more thought

[Thewisemann]

I am so happy I took Not Bader by sub instead of Not Tito by sub

While Tito hasnt subbed anyone in forever, if ever, he has shown glimpses of submission skill. That's why I took not Bader by sub and bet Ortiz by sub @ +3000

[Thewisemann]

I am so happy I took Not Bader by sub instead of Not Tito by sub

While Tito hasnt subbed anyone in forever, if ever, he has shown glimpses of submission skill. That's why I took not Bader by sub and bet Ortiz by sub @ +3000

[edman5555]

yeah he almost subbed machida. That was actually pretty close. I think Guillard probably beats Siver.

[SPX]

Yea when tito subbed him, I second guessed myself because i was pretty sure i put not bader by sub. Anyhow bader made a rookie mistake in going for that takedown immediately. Had ortiz been in the same spot, I think he's smart enough to protect his neck in addition to bader probably not goin for the sub.

Both of Bader's losses have come by choke, so he's obviously weak when it comes to defending those. I wonder if we're going to see more fighters trying to exploit that weakness in the future.

[SPX]

Has anyone ever checked the ratio of subs per event on average? I'm just curious as to if I should start giving the "not by sub" parlays a lot more thought

I haven't checked, but they do seem to hit a good deal if you're smart about your choices.

If you're laying 5 to win 1, you just have to win 6 of every 7 to show a profit. It seems like it's probably doable over the long term. When I refund my 5dimes account (as I'm hoping to do next month) I'm going to look into a little more.

[Vandelay]

I thought about betting the no subs occurring at all during this event. I think the odds were around plus 1900 or something like that. Ended up passing on it, but there werent any huge mismatches where a sub was likely.

[Luke]

I haven't checked, but they do seem to hit a good deal if you're smart about your choices.

If you're laying 5 to win 1, you just have to win 6 of every 7 to show a profit. It seems like it's probably doable over the long term. When I refund my 5dimes account (as I'm hoping to do next month) I'm going to look into a little more.

I'd be interested to see how many subs happen for each event over the last two years................you should get on that

[poopoo333]

I think for the most part, I will stick to "not by subs" and try to stray away from "not by (T)KO" props for these parlays. You don't have to factor in shit like early stoppages and the "fluke punch" and things like that. Also some of the lines are very skewed... You get the other ones in -1000 to -3000 range, but you get not Guillard by sub @-977. That makes no sense at all. Guillard hasn't subbed anybody since 2003, and it's pretty damn obvious his gameplan would be to strike or get back up to his feet and avoid being on the ground with Roller if it went there. I think we just have to make sure we don't force the bets every card to get better odds on the parlay, there will always be next time.

Future "not by sub" props that will be used by me in the future:

Not Rich Franklin by sub
Not Jorge Rivera by sub
Not Dan Hardy by sub
Not Ben Henderson by sub
Not Duane Ludwig by sub
Not Okami by sub
Not Brendan Schaub by sub
Not Rampage by sub

I think those are pretty close to "locks".

For UFC 133 I am reluctant on a prop bet for Belfort/Akiyama and Davis/Evans

[SPX]

Roller gonna die

That's true.