C/P from another site, article by Marc Lawrence
Long before the GOLD SHEET first called out the premise, Zig Zags were primarily known as popular rolling papers for those who enjoy their smoke of choice.
In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple:
‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.
The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.
How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.
Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2010.
Game on
Overall: 642-566-29
Game Two: 156-133-12
Game Three: 169-127-4
Game Four: 133-132-5
Game Five: 90-100-5
Game Six: 62-53-1
Game Seven: 23-21-2
The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three where they become a 57% point-spread play on the blind. That’s especially true for home teams that were limited to 75 or fewer points in Game Two as these guys get really stoked, going 13-2 in these contests.
Round ‘em up
Round One: 303-261-14
Round Two: 194-174-7
Round Three: 96-90-6
Round Four: 49-41-2
While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round One as they are 160-121-8, including 85-58-5 when playing off a double-digit defeat.
Planting the seed
No. 1 Seeds: 90-80-4
No. 2 Seeds: 83-63-3
No. 3 Seeds: 70-65-8
No. 4 Seeds: 65-58-1
No. 5 Seeds: 51-47
No. 6 Seeds: 44-44-1
No. 7 Seeds: 34-46-3
No. 8 Seeds: 43-36-4-3
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.
Living up to it’s billing, No. 2 tries harder.
Burn baby burn
Like all things that are popular, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags start to go up in smoke since 2001.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 10 years (2001-2010), going 331-317-9 – or 51.0% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-19 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.
Talk about a buzz kill.
Higher than a kite
So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?
Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting:
1) Double-Digit Dogs are 40-19-1 and,
2) favorites of more than four points off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8.
After all, they make the best sensimilla, if you know what I mean…
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