UFC 136

**edman5555** · 08-31-2011, 04:20 PM

Stann does pack some power, that is the only thing that concerns me. If you really take a look at Sonnens record he doesn't really do that bad. He just manages to get tapped out, rarely knocked out though. The guys that tap him out arent bums or anything either. Filho, Anderson and Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral. Good BJJ guys. He is 10 and 3 since losing to Horn in 2006. I think has fixeda lot of the holes in his ground game. That said, anything can happen. Maybe I should just bet Guillard and leave it at that.

**MMA_scientist** · 08-31-2011, 04:37 PM

I just hate Sonnen, so I think he is overrated. But really, I don't think Stann has the style to beat him, unless he has vastly improved his takedown defense. He hasn't though, so Sonnen is going to dry hump his way to a decision.

He is .500 in the UFC though, just sayin.

**sbjj** · 08-31-2011, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by edman5555

Stann does pack some power, that is the only thing that concerns me. If you really take a look at Sonnens record he doesn't really do that bad. He just manages to get tapped out, rarely knocked out though. The guys that tap him out arent bums or anything either. Filho, Anderson and Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral. Good BJJ guys. He is 10 and 3 since losing to Horn in 2006. I think has fixeda lot of the holes in his ground game. That said, anything can happen. Maybe I should just bet Guillard and leave it at that.

Personally, I would bet Sonnen before I would bet Guillard. Sonnen can take a mean shot and is facing a guy that while improved on the ground, is not a BJJ phenom and is just not on Sonnens level with wrestling.

Guillard is just as prone to getting subbed(Lauzon can su dudes) and has been rocked by guys that do not hit as hard as Lauzon. I actually think Guillard is a somewhat risky bet.

It sort of amazes me that Guillard is a higher favorite against Lauzon than he was against Roller.

**edman5555** · 08-31-2011, 04:59 PM

I don't know how prone Guillard is to getting subbed at this point. He has gone a long time without it happening. Kinda like Chael. I think they are both learning some sub Defense. I agree with you about Lauzon being able to sub him if they go to the ground I just really disagree about Joe's ability to get the fight there. I don't think thats happening. Melvin is very hard to take down. I think most of his sub losses are because he opted to take down his opponent. On top of that, Joe will get blasted on the feet. He has no chance standing IMO. Guillard has never been knocked out BTW so lauzon is not going to be the first guy to do it. If this fight goes past the second round I will be suprised.

**sbjj** · 08-31-2011, 05:09 PM

I think Lauzon is going to try for the takedown harder than any of Guillards most recent opponents. I had a big bet on Guillard against Roller because I thought Roller would stand with Guillard, and his takedowns are actually pretty weak. But I really think Lauzon is going to pressure Guillard like he has not been pressured recently.

Meanwhile Sonnen has taken down and dominated 3 or 4 fighters whose TDD is far above that of Stann. And i think Sonnen is actually priced better.

i am not betting either straight up. But i was considering throwing Sonnen in some parlays.

**edman5555** · 08-31-2011, 05:13 PM

Yeah Stanna TDD isn't good. He knocked out Leben though. That worries me. I think it may have been a fluke though.

**poopoo333** · 08-31-2011, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by edman5555

Yeah Stanna TDD isn't good. He knocked out Leben though. That worries me. I think it may have been a fluke though.

I'll save people the time:

"OMG CHRIS LEBEN WASN'T FEELING GOOD!!"

Guess what? If they fought again after Leben was cured by Ghandi or whoever the fuck cures people, Stann would still win.

**edman5555** · 08-31-2011, 07:31 PM

it might be true, it might not be. Who knows. Lebens chin could be shot, or not. Either way Chael has a good chin,.

**poopoo333** · 08-31-2011, 07:43 PM

I was just saying that because I knew somebody would throw that out there. I think Sonnen is gonna beat Stann easily.

**Vandelay** · 08-31-2011, 08:14 PM

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick

**poopoo333** · 08-31-2011, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by Vandelay

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick

**poopoo333** · 08-31-2011, 10:56 PM

I think Edgar will come back even better, and make the adjustments to not get caught like he did against Maynard in their last fight. I really think Edgar is going to win this one, he really impresses me.

Aldo/Florian is actually a little tough to call for me. Aldo will probably win, but his conditioning is a question mark imo.

Chael Sonnen will Sonnen Stann.

Dave Herman's defense looked like shit against J.O.E., will be smaller, and has some pretty shitty cardio. I think Russow would be a good dog play.

I'm in the minority and think Lauzon has a shot. I just hate how he gasses after round 1. I'm not sure if Lauzon will be able to get Guillard down though, or hold him there if he does. Lauzon's best shot is probably grabbing a choke in a scramble.

I think Demian Maia is gonna dominate Santiago on the mat. Santiago was taken down a lot and held down a lot by Misaki.

Pettis/Stephens is tough to call but Pettis has the slight edge imo

I think Stipe Miocic will beat Joey Beltran..but we all know the IWS/Joey Beltran curse.

Nam Phan should beat Matt Grice.

I'm unsure on Zhang/Elkins, Simpson/Catone, and Cantwell/Massenzio. It will be Cantwell's 1st cut to MW though, and he looked like total shit against Diabate.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-01-2011, 08:34 AM

Originally Posted by Vandelay

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick

Yes, and Chael only loses to Brazillians.

Sonnen via awesomeness

**edman5555** · 09-01-2011, 04:57 PM

I'll take Sonnen. I am not sure about Dave Herman though I guess I should not underestimate Mike Russow. I can't agree with you about Edgar though, Maynard beat him once and IMO kicked his ass the second time. Edgar barely squeezed by. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him win but I don't see why he has the advantage.

**Svino** · 09-01-2011, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by edman5555

I can't agree with you about Edgar though, Maynard beat him once and IMO kicked his ass the second time. Edgar barely squeezed by. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him win but I don't see why he has the advantage.

It seems that the theory goes something like this:

1) The first fight doesn't count because it was so long ago -- superseded by the second.
2) Maynard got lucky by clipping Edgar in round 1; the later rounds represent the fight as it most likely would have gone.

I don't really agree though. I'm prepared to bed Maynard if I can get him at any significant +odds. I do believe that Maynard gassed out a bit from trying to finish early.

**poopoo333** · 09-01-2011, 05:22 PM

Yeah, I took the first fight into account when I bet the 2nd fight (I bet Maynard). I thought something very similar would happen.

**MMA_scientist** · 09-01-2011, 05:32 PM

I think it is close enough that either guy could take it. As such, the value is with Maynard IMO. I like what Frankie is doing with his training more, but Maynard is bigger.

**edman5555** · 09-01-2011, 06:20 PM

Yeah Couture said Gray told him he gassed after round 1. Chasing frankie around like that and swining made him tired. Frankie was still fresh afterwards though because he has an endless tank. If Gray paces himself he can win this..this is a toss up. It should also go the distance.

**Svino** · 09-01-2011, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by Svino

I'm prepared to bed Maynard if I can get him at any significant +odds.

Um, shit. I mean I'm prepared to bet Maynard.

And yeah, in the second match, I was on Maynard to win by decision with a hedge on Edgar by decision. Lost it all, naturally. Did the same dumb thing again later with Fitch/Penn.

**poopoo333** · 09-01-2011, 06:27 PM

^^BOL that sucks some major dick

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