10-29-11

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SB Professor Original NCAA Picks

12:20 PM EST
146. Vanderbilt +9*

3:30 PM EST
138. Rutgers +7*

7 PM EST
143. Mississippi +13*

Rest of Games
116. Akron +7.5
130. Indiana +8.5
159. Missouri +10
117. Ball St. +12.5
141. Boston College +7
119. Wake Forest +7
168. Florida +2.5
169. San Jose St. +7.5
174. Idaho +7
176. UNLV +2.5
112. Kentucky +10
192. Ohio St. +7.5
194. UTEP +10
196. USC +7.5

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Legit picks

2* oklahoma/kansas state (over)
1* kansas state

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Seabass:
Private Plays
400* Michigan State +14
400*Oklahoma State +14
400*Florida +3
400*San Jose State +7

Lucky 7:
300* Ga Tech (ACC GOY)
300*Stanford/USC over 60 1/2
200 Arizona +4
100 Va Tech over 54
100Kent State +4
100Hawaii -7
100 Iowa State + whatever you can get

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SPORTS WAGERS

Wake Forest +7/+239 over NORTH CAROLINA PINNACLE
3:30 PM EST. Rarely do we play a pooch that we don’t believe can win the game outright and this one is no exception. Thus, we’ll play Wake on both the money line and spread. For one, the home-field edge in this contest is rather non-existent, as there might be as many Deac fans at this one as Tar Heel fans. North Carolina is 5-3 overall and they have a lot of very average wins. What’s more notable is the Tar Heels 1-3 conference record and their inability to beat anyone of substance. The Tar Heels best win this year was a 14-7 home victory over Louisville and all we can say to that is big deal. Wake is coming off a narrow 24-23 win at banged-up Duke last week and that close call has them undervalued here. Wake has a whole bunch of hidden positives going for them. They’re well-coached and they’re getting progressively better with each passing game. Wake has been battle tested and they’ve passed with a big win over #23 Florida 35-30. The Demon Deacons should have little trouble moving the chains all day long against this suspect defense that can’t stop anyone, let alone anyone good. We get the better team in a non-hostile environment that probably has a better chance of winning than the host. Play: #119 Wake Forest +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). Play: Wake Forest +239 (Risking 1 unit).

Georgia Tech +4 over CLEMSON SportsInteraction
8:00 PM EST. The Tigers are undefeated and they’ve been moving up the rankings every week. After opening the year with two easy, Clemson then went on to beat three ranked teams in succession and its stock soared. Subsequently, the Tigers whacked Boston College by 22 in what was supposed to be a “letdown” game. The past two weeks the Tigers have scored 56 and 59 points respectively and now their stock is off the charts. The Yellow Jackets are the complete opposite of Clemson. They were supposed to be make some noise this season and they started out like gangbusters with a 6-0 record before losing to Virginia and Miami over the past two games. Now the Jackets stock has dropped dramatically and as a result, we get a double dose of sell high and buy low. The Tigers are winning and scoring a lot of points but what is being overlooked is their inability to prevent points and they just can’t keep winning 50-45 games. Tigers have been on a high for too long and at some point they’re going to come crashing down. Tech can really slow this one down with an effective running game that ranks 5th at 321 yards per game against a Tigers defense that can’t stop the run. They will wear out this Clemson defense. This one has danger written all over it for the ranked visitors against an unranked host. Yellow Jackets outright but we’ll accept the points. Play: #124 Georgia Tech +150 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

KANSAS STATE +13½ over Oklahoma PINNACLE
3:30 PM EST. It's called smoke and mirrors only when it's not sustainable. K-State's get-outgained-but-win act is here to stay. Red zone efficiency, turnover margin and big-play special teams are consistent hallmarks of Bill Snyder teams past, present and future. Another constant is stellar performance as a home underdog. Two touchdowns would have been ample even before Oklahoma's season came crashing down last week. Now the visitor can barely call itself the favorite. The Sooners had three big questions entering a season that was supposed to produce a national title run, and all three were exposed in last week's home loss to Texas Tech, the lowest moment of the Bob Stoops era. Brent Venables' defense has been sliding for three years now while Landry Jones has never quite looked like a quarterback that could make it through a season without a costly performance. And the Oklahoma special teams -- particularly the placekicking -- have long been mediocre for a top team. Kansas State can't win in Stillwater next week, but the Cats have a great shot at this one and they know it. The Wildcats are a team on the rise and will enter next season as the Big-12 favorites. Snyder produced six 11-win seasons in a span of seven years during his first tour on the sideline of the stadium that now bears his name. The upcoming run might not be quite as impressive, but it will produce plenty of big wins. The first defining moment is upon them, and Snyder's charges are up to the task. Huge overlay. Play: #188 Kansas State +13½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

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Chase Diamond (ksp)

Killer Club

100 Dimes Notre Dame -23

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Ohio Sports Betting Prodigy

UTAH - 4.5

NOTRE DAME -23.5

GEORGIA TECH +4

UCLA +5

TENNESSEE +4

OKLAHOMA -12.5

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Florida (4-3) versus #21 Georgia (5-2)
3:30 PM ET, Saturday, October 29, 2011
*Neutral Field* EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
(Georgia - 2 ½, 48 ½)

Alert, Alert, Alert.....SEC Rivalry game here!!! It’s an event known as “The World's Largest Cocktail Party”! OK, I’ll be the first to admit, after Georgia lost their first two games like they did, where I felt they needed to win at least one of them to be a contender in the SEC East, I was writing them off in Week 3. I really thought it was going to be the end of the line for head coach, Mark Richt and offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo too after this season. Not to say it wont as the general consensus among the Georgia faithful is they get tired of seeing their team recruit top classes time and time again only to keep coming up short. They want to know why they’re not being talked about year after year with the Alabama’s and the LSU’s. And as they think the world of Mark Richt as a man and a coach, with great football “smarts”, they also feel it’s time to “put up or shut up”. They want results. Although I feel this may truly be the end of the line for Bobo and his play calling after this season, a win against their despised football enemies, Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers, may be the only thing that saves Richt’s skin. And I personally feel it’ll take victories in both contests to do this and not just close games. They have eased the situation a little though by winning 5 straight games after those first two losses. Florida on the other hand is just about where I thought they’d be this year record-wise. Bringing together a new coaching staff and trying to employ new schemes usually takes a year or two to gel. Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis will surely do fine in “The Swamp” and a win against their Georgia rival would surely get them back on track and start building their legacy in Florida. Florida is on a 3 game skid but the situations and outcomes of these teams are a little bit different. Lets break it down a little and find out why things are the way they are.

First of all for Florida, their starting QB, John Brantley was injured in the Alabama game a couple weeks back and they have had to play with a backup. That is probably one reason they have been outscored 93-17 over their past 11 quarters. Plus, their speedy running back Jeff Demps was out against Auburn with an ankle injury. They hope to have both back for this contest which will certainly help, but they will by no means probably be playing at 100% and Brantley will surely be rusty and probably take the majority of the game to get back to where he wants to be. Another reason that Florida has had it rough is that they haven’t just been playing cupcake teams. This will be the fourth straight ranked opponent the Gators have faced so that does carry a little more weight, but on the downside of that is that the tougher opponents tend to break you down and wear you down a little more than just the average teams can do. Florida owns the number 71 ranked offense in the nation. They average 26.9 points per game. They average 353.6 total yards per game. It is a pretty balanced attack that features 178 yards through the air and another 175.6 on the ground. Defensively they average giving up 18.9 points per game. They average allowing 289.1 yards of opposing teams offense. 168.4 yards by passing and another 120.7 by rushing.

On the other side of the ball, you have the Georgia Bulldogs that unlike the Gators, are coming in with some momentum and on a winning streak. Lets get right to their stats. They average 411.1 yards per game. 248.7 of them by way of the arm of Aaron Murray and the passing attack and another 162.4 of rushing per game. Defensively, the Dawgs rank number 7 against the run on the road only allowing 71 rushing yards per game. This fact will help to slow down the speedy Demps of Florida somewhat. Overall, Georgia defensively allow on average a total of 273.1 total yards. 171 yards by passing and only another 102.1 through the air. Georgia leads the SEC in conference play with their 248.7 passing yards per game. Last week Aaron Murray lead an attack against Vanderbilt which showcased a career high 326 passing yards and 3 TD’s for him. He’ll be fired up for this game for sure. He wants and is ready to be recognized as one of this conference’s top QB’s. He loves to get out to a fast paced start and early lead which shows by the fact that they have outscored opponents to the tune of 61-10 in the first quarter this year. Teams constantly find themselves having to abandon their gameplan early and play from behind. Still feeling the effects from Tebow and the Gators kicking the butts of Georgia the past few years, the Bulldogs will want nothing more than to return the favor this year, which in turn will eliminate Florida from contention for the SEC Eastern Division Championship. That alone should be motivation enough for the Dawgs to want to win by double digits.....embarrassing their southern foe rivals in the process.

Both teams are coming in after some much needed rest and bye weeks will probably be of more significance to the Gators as they had two key players that needed it badly. Georgia did need to for Crowell to be able to rest that wrist of his too that was nagging him. Nevertheless, both teams will benefit. In order for Brantley to be able to try and find his rythem again after getting hurt, the Gators offensive line will have to do an outstanding job of protecting him, giving him the time he needs to make plays down field. He doesn’t need to have to scramble as he is already not one of the most nimblest of QB’s and plus he is not going to be in top form and probably not be playing at 100%. So don’t look for any sprint outs to the side to throw down the field. You more than likely see some shotgun type plays and maybe some three step drop quick passes to help protect him. On defense, they’ll surely have to try and slow up the playing combination between Murray and Charles. Orson Charles has accumulated 4 TD’s already on 22 receptions and 299 yards. That’s despite missing the game against South Carolina. Murray is a 61% passer that has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season so far and 16 touchdowns. The Gators Special Teams unit has been picked on and laughed at some this year too. They’ve been fooled on some trick plays and had problems just catching punts in general. They just have to play better in general from their last outing against the Tigers from Auburn. They only managed a mere 194 yards of total offense while allowing 278. Plus they had 3 turnovers and wasn’t able to create not a one for themselves to capitalize on. Meanwhile, Georgia has seemed to improve weekly on their game. Their defense ranks sixth in the nation as a whole. Their last game out against Vandy, they were able to amass 443 total yards of defense so they seem to be clicking finally. They did have one turnover but caused 4 that they took away.

Now here is a couple of other things to take into account. The Dawgs are finally going to be at full strength at the linebacker position for this game. For one reason or another, they’ve had at least one of them missing in every game since their opener against Boise State. That hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing as it’s given all the backups plenty of playing time and experience in case of an injury to that position. Yet again, this is something that is coming at just the right time for Georgia as Florida prides itself on their speedy backs. Still, I’m not saying it’s just going to be a cakewalk containing Demps and Rainey. I’m just saying this helps and will allow them to swap experienced players in and out at this position to keep them fresh and rested. The other reason that this is so important is that Georgia has suspended a couple of players for being knuckleheads for the first half of this game. Nosetackle Kwame Geathers and Safety Sean Williams both are being sidelined for the first two quarters. On the bright side, they will be rested for the whole second half against the attack of the Gators.

Something else we have not touched on yet, and another reason that the Murray/Charles combination may be a key, is that Georgia may be without Malcolm Mitchell again as he missed all of the Vandy game nursing an aggravated hamstring. If he sees action here, more than likely it may just be limited. He has been a good weapon for Murray as he has 25 catches on the season for 438 yards. On another note, Georgia knows that there is a possibility they may see two or maybe even all three of Florida’s quarterbacks in this game and they have made sure to prepare for each one. There really isn’t a whole lot of difference in their styles and Driskel is the one that may be more apt to just take off and run. When their starter Brantley is not in there though, and Georgia is faced with either Brissett or Driskel as the signal caller, then they’ll be licking their chops knowing that this tandem has only combined for 1 TD but has thrown 5 interceptions. Studying both teams practices and coaches quotes for this game, I can tell you that Georgia looks to be strong and focus their attention against the run first but have put a lot of emphasis on rushing the passer with just the three or four guys up front without blitzing which will allow them to squeeze the pocket. This will cause Brantley, or whoever is back there to rush their throws and make bad decisions. Murray says that he has had this game circled since way before the season and he wants to have an outstanding outing against the Gators and his home state crowd. The Dawgs know that this is the best opportunity they’ve had in recent years to down the Gators and as long as they don’t get in their own way, then they should pull it out. Granted that all these Georgia wins recently have not come against top-notched teams, they do not want to let South Carolina gain anymore ground on them and will give it their all this whole game through. I have the Bulldogs as 6 point favorites here so I’ll be glad to recommend taking Georgia minus the 2 ½ points. Best of Luck to us!!!

Georgia Bulldogs -2 ½ Reply With Quote

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Teddy C
6* Iowa-15.5

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Maddux

20* nebraska
10* wisconsin
10* usc
10* auburn

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Vegas runner

3* max bomb* ohio state +8
2* ucla +5
2* penn state -5
2* nebraskas -4
2* usc +7.5

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Ivy league sports

kansas st
mich st
usc

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The Consensus Pick

Pick of the Day: 7-point teaser [Wake Forest +13.5; Idaho +14] (-130) [NCAA-FB]

Free Pick: 7-point teaser [Florida +10; Arizona +10.5] (-130) [NCAA-FB]

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Underground Sports Connection

Complete Card:

SD st (-)
USC (+)
Oklahoma st (-)
Maryland (-)
Oklahoma (-)
Syracuse (+)
Nebraska (-)

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Comps:
Duh Manager-South Carolina
Winner Line-OVER Stanford
OTM-OVER Nevada
Kevin Karr(Special K)-New Mexico State