By Mark Wald Coldhardfootballfacts

The NFL home field is said to be worth 3 points to the home team. It’s no secret most teams play better at home than on the road. Over the last 40 years teams average about 22 points at home and 19 on the road. That’s a three point difference.

But it’s a three point difference based on average. It would be a mistake to say every team has a 3-point advantage at home just because that’s the league average.

Would you predict the Green Bay Packers will score 20 or 21 points next week because the league scoring average has hovered there for years? Doubtful. The Packers average almost 36 points a game.

Not only does Home Field Advantage vary by team, the concept itself is misunderstood.

We’re about to explain what NFL Home Field Advantage is, what it is not, and how it’s calculated. The teams that enjoy a true home field advantage might surprise you.

Home field advantage - what it isn’t
When people think of Home Field Advantage they think of teams that are tough to beat at home. Pittsburgh and Denver, for example, have reputations as tough places to play. Based on their win percent at home since 1970, their reputations are justified.

Top 5 NFL win percent at home since 1970 Team Home Away Total
Pit .722 .502 .612
Den .689 .457 .573
BalR .687 .405 .546
Mia .678 .515 .596
Dal .674 .506 .590


Since 2000 New England and Baltimore have the best home records.

Top 5 NFL win percent at home since 2000 Team Home Away Total
NE .787 .649 .718
BalR .755 .447 .601
Pit .718 .606 .662
Ind .702 .628 .665
GB .699 .547 .622


More recently, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Green Bay make life miserable for opposing teams while New England and Baltimore hold down the top spot.


Top 5 home win% last 3 years (2008 to Week 13 2011) Team Home Away Total
NE .867 .600 .733
BalR .833 .533 .683
Atl .800 .533 .667
NO .767 .600 .683
GB .759 .548 .650


There you have it. Over the last 40 years the Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens have the biggest Home Field Advantage in the NFL. Case closed, done deal?

Not quite.

While it’s difficult if not close to impossible to beat these teams at home, it doesn’t mean they have a significant Home Field Advantage. One reason they win a lot at home is because they win a lot, period.
Make no mistake: a team that is tough to beat at home and a team that has an advantage disproportionate to other teams by the mere fact of playing at home are two different things.

That’s why basing HFA based on win-loss record is faulty and misleading. On-field success is not a requirement for Home Field Advantage. There are great teams with little or no Home Field Advantage, just as there are bad teams with tremendous Home Field Advantage.

True home field advantage
Does a team play measurably better at home than they do on the road?

Is a team tougher to play in their own stadium than they would be playing in the stadium of their opponent?

If the answer is yes, the team has a home field advantage.

Sounds like a no-brainer. But it isn’t as simple as a team’s home vs. road record. Good teams win a lot no matter where they play.

But there’s also another important factor to consider: half of any Home Field Advantage is contributed by the visiting team. Since the visiting team (presumably) plays worse on the road, the home team not only benefits by playing at home, they benefit by the visiting team playing worse on the road.

In other words, a team is only 50 percent responsible for any edge gained by playing at home.

How, then, is homefield advantage calculated?

One way to do it is to compare a teams’ offensive and defensive scoring average at home and on the road, then adjusting it by 50 percent. Here’s an example, using a mythical Team A.

TEAM A example Team Home Away Home Diff Road Diff Home Advantage
PF PA PF PA 23 - 16 22 - 21 (7 - 1) / 2
Team A 23.0 16.0 22.0 21.0 7.0 1.0 3.0

On their home field Team A averages 23 points on offense and 16 on defense, a seven point advantage. On the road they average 22 points and allow 21, a one point advantage. That’s a swing of 6 points between home and road performance.

Since half of HFA is contributed by the visiting team, the result must be divided by two in order to arrive at a team’s contribution to its own home field advantage. In this instance, six divided by two equals a 3-point Home Field Advantage for Team A.

Here’s another example for mythical Team B:

TEAM B example Team Home Away Home Diff Road Diff Home Advantage
PF PA PF PA 21 - 18 16 - 22 3 - (-6) / 2
Team B 21.0 18.0 16.0 22.0 3.0 -6.0 4.5


Team B playing at home averages 21 points on offense and allows 18 points on defense, an advantage of three points. On the road they average only 16 points and allow 22, a disadvantage of -6 points. That’s a 9 point swing between home and road performance that, divided by two, equals a 4.5 point Home Field Advantage for Team B.

Now that we’re squared away on methodology, let’s see who’s rocking the joint at home.

NFL home field advantage by team
Based on regular season games played since 1970, here is the HFA for every team in the NFL. The Ravens top the list. Of the teams that have been around since 1970, the Chiefs top the list.

NFL homefield advantage since 1970 Team Home Away Home Advantage*
PF PA PF PA
BalR 23.9 16.8 17.9 19.6 4.5
KC 22.4 18.4 18.8 22.5 4.0
Den 24.0 18.6 19.8 21.3 3.5
Det 21.7 20.2 17.6 23.5 3.5
Jax 22.2 18.3 19.2 22.0 3.5
Pit 23.3 15.9 19.8 19.2 3.5
Sea 22.5 20.1 18.7 23.0 3.5
AZ 20.4 21.2 17.3 24.3 3.0
Buf 20.5 18.9 18.4 22.9 3.0
Chi 20.4 17.7 17.1 20.4 3.0
Cin 22.4 20.6 18.6 23.0 3.0
Dal 23.9 18.0 20.4 20.0 3.0
GB 22.6 18.5 19.7 21.4 3.0
Hou 21.8 21.8 18.4 24.3 3.0
Min 23.1 18.1 20.7 21.5 3.0
NE 22.7 18.6 20.3 21.7 3.0
StL 23.3 20.2 19.2 21.8 3.0
Ten 21.7 19.7 18.8 23.0 3.0
Atl 21.0 20.8 18.0 22.9 2.5
Mia 23.3 17.6 20.4 19.9 2.5
Oak 22.5 19.3 20.1 21.6 2.5
SD 22.8 20.3 20.2 22.9 2.5
SF 23.5 18.0 21.8 21.0 2.5
TB 18.7 19.4 15.9 21.8 2.5
Cle 18.7 19.3 18.0 22.2 2.0
Ind 21.7 20.7 19.7 22.6 2.0
NYG 20.5 19.3 18.1 20.5 2.0
NYJ 20.5 19.8 19.0 22.4 2.0
Was 21.8 18.2 19.9 20.6 2.0
Car 20.0 19.4 19.7 22.3 1.5
NO 20.3 20.9 19.4 22.9 1.5
Phi 20.5 18.1 19.8 20.7 1.5
Total 21.8 19.1 19.1 21.8 2.5



Covering more than 40 years, this chart is interesting historically but probably not helpful to bettors looking for current information.

Narrowing the focus to games played since 2000, the Baltimore Ravens (not surprisingly, since their first season was in 1996), Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks have the biggest Home Field Advantage.

NFL homefield advantage since 2000 Team Home Away Home Advantage*
PF PA PF PA
BalR 24.4 15.2 18.0 18.7 5.0
Min 24.5 20.2 20.5 25.1 4.5
Sea 23.8 19.7 19.1 24.3 4.5
SF 22.1 19.5 18.6 25.4 4.5
AZ 20.9 22.1 17.7 26.9 4.0
StL 23.8 23.5 18.2 25.5 4.0
KC 24.2 21.3 20.3 24.5 3.5
Dal 23.2 20.1 18.7 22.1 3.0
Det 20.4 23.8 17.6 26.8 3.0
GB 25.9 17.9 24.4 22.3 3.0
Hou 21.8 21.8 18.4 24.3 3.0
Jax 21.2 18.4 18.9 21.9 3.0
Buf 19.6 20.3 18.4 24.0 2.5
Chi 22.0 19.2 17.3 19.9 2.5
Den 24.1 20.9 21.8 23.4 2.5
Ind 26.7 19.8 25.2 23.1 2.5
Pit 24.3 16.4 20.7 17.7 2.5
SD 26.1 20.3 23.2 22.9 2.5
Atl 22.5 21.8 19.2 22.1 2.0
Cle 16.6 19.7 16.5 24.0 2.0
NYJ 21.2 18.4 19.7 20.7 2.0
Oak 21.2 22.1 19.2 23.7 2.0
Ten 23.3 20.5 20.2 21.9 2.0
Cin 20.6 22.2 18.6 23.0 1.5
Mia 20.5 19.2 18.9 20.5 1.5
NE 25.8 16.9 26.1 19.9 1.5
TB 21.0 19.0 18.0 19.1 1.5
Car 19.0 19.7 19.8 22.3 1.0
Was 18.9 20.0 17.3 20.6 1.0
NO 24.2 22.1 24.6 23.1 0.5
NYG 22.3 20.9 21.8 21.5 0.5
Phi 24.1 18.6 23.4 19.1 0.5
Total 22.5 20.0 20.0 22.5 2.5


HFA varies from team to team and season to season. It must be updated constantly to remain valid, useful information.

We narrowed the focus to 2008-2011. That’s a little more than three seasons and as current as it gets. Anything less (say, last season only) would suffer from insufficient sample size.

With a 6.5 edge at home, Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks have the biggest Home Field Advantage in the NFL today.

Homefield advantage last 3 years (2008 to Week 13 2011) Team Home Away Home Advantage*
PF PA PF PA
Sea 20.8 20.1 15.9 27.7 6.5
SF 24.1 17.3 17.7 21.8 5.5
BalR 25.8 13.4 21.9 18.8 4.5
Dal 27.0 20.6 19.6 22.5 4.5
AZ 24.8 23.3 19.5 25.1 3.5
GB 30.2 18.1 26.2 21.1 3.5
Min 24.5 19.9 21.3 24.2 3.5
Atl 26.0 19.0 21.9 20.4 3.0
Chi 25.1 21.1 19.0 20.7 3.0
NE 29.8 17.5 27.4 21.0 3.0
NO 30.9 20.5 27.5 23.1 3.0
SD 28.2 19.6 25.8 23.0 3.0
StL 15.9 24.4 12.0 26.4 3.0
Car 19.8 19.8 20.7 25.9 2.5
Cin 19.0 19.7 17.6 23.5 2.5
Ind 23.5 20.2 23.3 24.9 2.5
NYJ 23.8 17.1 23.2 21.4 2.5
Buf 17.9 20.1 20.6 26.4 2.0
Hou 24.7 20.8 23.8 23.9 2.0
NYG 26.0 21.7 24.3 24.4 2.0
Pit 24.3 15.7 21.0 16.7 2.0
Ten 24.2 19.9 20.3 20.2 2.0
Cle 15.4 20.4 15.3 22.9 1.5
Det 21.7 27.2 19.2 28.0 1.5
Jax 19.8 23.3 16.8 23.5 1.5
Phi 26.3 20.3 25.5 22.6 1.5
KC 19.5 24.5 17.7 24.1 0.5
Den 21.8 25.9 21.4 25.3 0.0
Mia 21.5 22.6 19.3 19.4 -0.5
Was 16.7 21.0 17.8 21.2 -0.5
Oak 18.4 24.3 19.8 23.8 -1.0
TB 19.3 23.8 19.6 21.8 -1.0
Total 23.0 20.7 20.7 23.0 2.5


It’s about line value and relative performance
When it comes to on-field prowess we’re all about the bottom line. Statistics will not convince us the Seahawks are harder to beat in Seattle than the Patriots are in Foxboro. After all, more than 85 percent of the teams that walk into Gillette Stadium walk out losers.

But that’s not the point. The point is relative home field performance and its impact on betting lines.

The Seahawks play better at home relative to their overall performance than the Patriots do.
The Patriots at home are a little better than they are on the road. The Seahawks at home are much better than they are on the road.
A Seahawks betting line is impacted by the game being in Seattle even more than a Patriots betting line is impacted by the game being in Foxboro.


In other words, the Seahawks have a bigger home field advantage.

***

The Seahawks haven’t had a winning record since 2007, yet they enjoy the league’s biggest advantage playing at home?

Correct. On-field success is not a requirement for Home Field Advantage. Nor does the lack of Home Field Advantage limit on-field success. The 1984 San Francisco 49ers are a quintessential example.

The ’84 49ers went 15-1 and won the Super Bowl. They did it despite having one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL. Take a look at their game by game results.

1984 San Francisco 49ers Week H/A Opponent SF Opp
1 @ Detroit Lions 30 27
2 Washington Redskins 37 31
3 New Orleans Saints 30 20
4 @ Philadelphia Eagles 21 9
5 Atlanta Falcons 14 5
6 @ New York Giants 31 10
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 20
8 @ Houston Oilers 34 21
9 @ Los Angeles Rams 33 0
10 Cincinnati Bengals 23 17
11 @ Cleveland Browns 41 7
12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 17
13 @ New Orleans Saints 35 3
14 @ Atlanta Falcons 35 17
15 Minnesota Vikings 51 7
16 Los Angeles Rams 19 16



The 49ers destroyed their opponents on the road by an average score of 33-12. Playing at home the average margin of victory was much closer; 27-17.

That’s more than a 10-point swing in favor of road performance equating to a -5.5 point Home Field DIS-advantage, as shown below.

1984 San Francisco 49ers Team Home Away Home Diff Road Diff Home Advantage
PF PA PF PA 26.9 - 16.6 32.5 - 11.8 (10.3 - 20.7) / 2
1984 SF 26.9 16.6 32.5 11.8 10.3 20.7 -5.3



Were the 1984 49ers an easy team to beat at home? No. They lost only one game. But if you were a team facing the 49ers in 1984 you wanted to face them in Candlestick Park

(Quality of competition is a factor. But HFA would normally never be calculated based the results of a single season. We did it here to illustrate a point)

Credit the great Bill Walsh for turning a negative (playing on the road) into such a positive that a normal positive (playing at home) appears negative by comparison.

You can be sure the linemakers were aware of this when they set the point-spreads for 49ers home games in 1984.

If the next Seahawks betting line for a game at CenturyLink Field looks a little off kilter, now you know why. And it isn’t.