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Today's NFL Picks
Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog. Dallas is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 1
Time Posted: 12:00 a.m. EST (12/29)Game 301-302: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.431; Philadelphia 135.425
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); OverGame 303-304: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 114.881; Atlanta 137.964
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 23; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 11; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); UnderGame 305-306: San Francisco at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.980; St. Louis 120.305
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 18 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10 1/2); UnderGame 307-308: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.166; Minnesota 126.866
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); OverGame 309-310: Detroit at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 138.183; Green Bay 133.734
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); UnderGame 311-312: Dallas at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.912; NY Giants 128.643
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); OverGame 313-314: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.770; New Orleans 142.647
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 57
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9); OverGame 315-316: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.875; Houston 127.502
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); UnderGame 317-318: Baltimore at Cincinnati (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.469; Cincinnati 132.311
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 39
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1); UnderGame 319-320: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.191; Cleveland 129.868
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; No Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7 1/2); N/AGame 321-322: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.907; Jacksonville 129.002
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3 1/2); OverGame 323-324: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.794; Miami 133.935
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2 1/2); UnderGame 325-326: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.508; New England 142.456
Dunkel Line: New England by 16; 46
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); UnderGame 327-328: San Diego at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.420; Oakland 131.823
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); OverGame 329-330: Kansas City at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.748; Denver 133.969
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); UnderGame 331-332: Seattle at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.988; Arizona 132.093
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over
DCI NFL
Season
Straight Up: 158-72 (.687)
ATS: 118-110 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 573-539 (.515)
Over/Under: 121-112 (.519)
Over/Under Vary Units: 393-318 (.553)
Sunday, January 1, 2012
GREEN BAY 37, Detroit 26
San Francisco 25, ST. LOUIS 6
MIAMI 24, N.Y. Jets 20
Chicago 26, MINNESOTA 24
NEW ENGLAND 39, Buffalo 17
NEW ORLEANS 40, Carolina 23
PHILADELPHIA 30, Washington 14
JACKSONVILLE 21, Indianapolis 18
HOUSTON 21, Tennessee 16
ATLANTA 37, Tampa Bay 14
Baltimore 19, CINCINNATI 18
Pittsburgh 18, CLEVELAND 10
Seattle 20, ARIZONA 19
OAKLAND 26, San Diego 25
DENVER 20, Kansas City 16
N.Y. GIANTS 29, Dallas 21
Robert Ferringo
NFL:
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
329 Kansas City (+3.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
under 46.0 Dallas at New York Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
under 41.0 Seattle at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
under 41.0 New York Jets at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
under 41.0 Chicago at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
324 Miami (-2.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
325 Buffalo (+11) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
313 Carolina (+8) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
315 Tennessee (-3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
under 37.0 Kansas City at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
303 Tampa Bay (+11) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
Doc Sports
NFL Selections
#34 Take Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
Cincinnati by 6
#52 Take New York Giants -3 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend.
New York by 10
#60 Take Denver Broncos -3 over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
Denver by 10
#62 Take Under 49 in Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
Strong Opinion Play
Week 17 NFL Trends & Angles
We have now reached Week 17, and since this is the final week of the regular season, we advise being very carful with how you use the trends and angles in this column or any other approach you use for that matter, as many games this week will have a preseason feel with many teams that are locked into the playoffs really having nothing to play for.
Back to the matter at hand, remember last week when there was a conflict at the top of our angles, as the Seattle Seahawks fell into a system that said to fade road favorites after their 11th win of the season (in this case the 49ers) while the Niners fit the Monday Night Magic angle? Well, case solved as the game ended in a Push with San Francisco winning by two points!
The Monday Night Magic angle turns up for the sixth straight week this week after the New Orleans Saints' big win in Drew Brees' record breaking performance Monday night, but keep our aforementioned advice in mind as the Saints may sit some regulars.
We will lead off with a nice road underdog angle this week that should not be hindered by favored teams sitting players.
Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (168-107-7, 61.1% ATS since 2002): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. There are three qualifying plays for this angle for Week 17: Chicago +1, San Diego +3 and Tampa Bay +12
Play on any team coming off of a Monday night win by 17 points or more with no bye week (44-23-1, 65.7% ATS since 1999): There was a time way back in the day where backing the opposite of what a team did on Monday night the following Sunday was profitable, with the theory being that the teams that lost in the national spotlight would be motivated to play better while the teams that won would be overvalued after the whole world just watched them win. Instead, just the opposite has been true since 1999, and we think that the reason is this original line of thinking became so prevalent that the contrarian actually became the mainstream, giving value to backing teams to repeat their Monday performances. The one push on the ATS record of this angle came last week, and that came after the trend won each of the previous four weeks. It gets one last chance this season with the Saints -9 vs. Carolina, but be careful as New Orleans may rest regulars.
Play against any road favorite after it has won its 11th game of the season (56-27-1, 67.5% ATS since 1989): Teams that have won 11 games are more often than not playoff teams that do not need to run up scores late in the year, and as you can see fading these teams as road chalk has been like a gold mine. This angle is still 2-0-1 ATS this season, as the Packers failed to cover at the Giants and at Kansas City (losing outright) after getting Win #11 and the 49eers pushed last week. This is a very dangerous angle to play this week, as all three qualifiers are facing teams with something to play for. For the record though, two of the qualifiers are the Rams +10½ vs. San Francisco and the Bengals +1 vs. Baltimore. The third qualifiers once the line comes out will be the Cleveland Browns hosting Pittsburgh.
Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (56-37, 60.2% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle went a perfect 2-0 when it last turned up in Week 15 and it has two qualifiers in Week 17 that may actually benefit for the favorites resting players, those being the Carolina Panthers +9 at New Orleans and the Buffalo Bills +11 at New England.
Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-68-6, 59.8% ATS since 2002): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of teams not liking to be embarrassed and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. There are two qualifiers in this final week of the regular season: San Diego +3 and Denver -3½.
Play against any home favorite coming off of two or more road losses (55-36-2, 60.4% ATS since 2002): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses don't enjoy as much of a home field advantage as they normally do when they finally do return home, and this becomes more true as it gets later in the season, when those consecutive losses affect a team's playoff chances. As a case in point, while this angle is an already excellent 60.4 percent over all games since 2002, it has gone lights out during the month of December over this same span, going 22-10, 68.8 percent after a perfect 2-0 week in Week 13, which was the last time the angle had a play! Well, it has one for Week 17, but it is a dangerous one: the Indianapolis Colts +3½ at Jacksonville. Will the Colts "Suck for Luck"?
Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (70-48-5, 59.5% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or not the team is now home (32-24-4 ATS) or away (38-24-1 ATS). There is one qualifying play for this week: Tampa Bay +12 on the road.
Wunderdog
Game: Tennessee at Houston (Sunday 1/01 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +1.5 (-110)
There isn't anything Houston can do to change their playoffs seeding in this game, as they will be the No. 3 seed win or lose. Despite that I think Houston has some work to do on offense with Taylor Yates. It looks like Andre Johnson will be playing this week, so this game could be a good tune-up to get them in-sync. What might be more important is having Wade Phillips back on the sidelines after surgery to help get the Texans’ rush defense back in order. Tennessee is in a must-win situation, but that only means they are a marginal playoff team and teams in this role often struggle, and the line is usually inflated on top of it. The Texans come in with a 16-5 ATS mark at home vs. a team with a winning road record in their last 21, and are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog. The Titans are not getting it done as road chalk at 1-5 ATS in their last six, and the dog has ruled this series at 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Houston is the pick.
WUNDERDOG
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns -Browns +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons -Buccaneers +11
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders -Chargers +3
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals -Seahawks +3
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants -OVER 46
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals -Bengals +1
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -Redskins +9
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans -Texans +1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams -Rams +10.5
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -Bears +1
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins -OVER 41
Nelly
3* GOY - Patriots -10
01/01/12 Nelly's 3* #326 New England Patriots -10 over Buffalo Bills 12:00 PM CT
A win clinches the top seed for the Patriots after surging back from a 17-0 deficit last week. New England was clearly a bit flat after the hyped game with Denver but the Patriots still came out on top and would have won by double-digits if not for a late Miami score. The Patriots allow more yards than any team in the NFL but they have created turnovers and gotten stops when needed. Buffalo won 34-31 with a great comeback when these teams met in week 3 but fortunes changed quickly for the Bills who snapped a seven-game losing streak with a turnover filled win last week over the Broncos. The 40-14 final was misleading as turnovers created three touchdowns for the Bills as the game got out of hand in the fourth quarter. Buffalo is 1-6 on the road this season and the Bills are in for a tough match-up against a Patriots team that will be out for revenge while still having plenty to play for with the top seed clinched with a win. This is an early game so New England can’t wait to see what Baltimore and Pittsburgh do and New England has won ten in a row against the Bills in Foxboro, winning by an average margin of 13.1 points and going 6-4 ATS. New England is 20-2 S/U and 14-7-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings with the Bills as the loss early this season snapped a 15-game win streak in the series. New England is also 11-1 ATS since 1985 when playing the last regular season game at home including a blowout win last season 38-7 in what many figured would be a game with limited motivation. The injury news for Tom Brady has scared this line down well below where it should be and while the news of the shoulder x-ray is a concern there is no question Brady will be playing in this game and with Dan Marino’s old yardage record in reach he should be playing to win, even though he likely can’t catch Drew Brees in that race. Brian Hoyer is also a more than capable back-up that has played well in preseason action and given the weapons on this team the production is not likely to miss a beat against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Buffalo certainly has nothing to play for and after finally breaking the losing streak the Bills should be in a flat spot on the road. Buffalo has allowed 29 points per game on the road this season while New England’s defense has been far better at home, allowing just 19 points per game. The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series and Coach Belichick likes to enter the playoffs with momentum, as New England is 9-2-1 ATS in the last twelve week 17 match-ups. Take advantage of a depressed line and back a team trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC.
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #329 Kansas City (+3.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #324 Miami (-2.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #325 Buffalo (+11) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #313 Carolina (+8) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #315 Tennessee (-3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #303 Tampa Bay (+11) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
This Week's Totals:
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 Dallas at New York Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 Seattle at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 New York Jets at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 Chicago at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 37.0 Kansas City at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
Strike Point Sports
2-Unit Play. Take #322 Jacksonville (-3.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #315 Tennessee (-3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #313 Carolina (+8) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan 1)
5-Unit Play. Take #312 N.Y. Giants (-3) over Dallas (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan 1)
NFL Game of the Week
Vegas Sports Informer
2 Unit Play. #324 Take Miami -2 over New York Jets (1:00p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
5 Unit Play. #317 Take Baltimore -2 over Cincinnati (4:15p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
(Game of the Week)
3 Unit Play. #312 Take NY Giants -3 over Dallas (8:30p.m., Sunday, Jan. 1)
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