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Thread: 2012 Parlay

  1. #281
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    2279 / 14.45 = 157.71. I didn't take it out the .01... I am only off by a penny.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  2. #282
    Senior Member Ludo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    Obviously I don't think he WILL sub Kampmann... but for these types of plays, the question is CAN he sub Kampmann? I am going to let it roll though... screw it.

    $2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.
    I don't think Ellenberger can sub Kampmann unless there are some extenuating circumstances like Ellenberger hurting Kampmann bad and Martin dives for a halfassed takedown and gets caught in a guillotine, but I'm not seeing it as very likely. Kampmann has fought better grapplers with better submissions before.
    2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
    Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
    Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
    Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u

    2012: +20.311u

  3. #283
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    2279 / 14.45 = 157.71. I didn't take it out the .01... I am only off by a penny.
    No, I mean:

    MMA Scientist:
    $1500 to win $158 on Not Evans by submission
    $1658 to win $121 on Not Condit subs Diaz/Not Pierce subs Koscheck/not Nelson subs Werdum
    $1779 to win $93.77 on Not Ellenberger to sub Sanchez
    $1872 to win $187 on Not Akiyama to sub Shields/Not Boetch to sub Okami/Not Bart to sub Hioki
    $700 to win $37.23 on Not Alves to sub Kampmann
    $2096 to win $141.49 on Not Koscheck to sub Hendricks
    $1200 to win $52 on Not JDS by sub/not Herman by sub.
    $2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.
    Running total: $2,289.72($1500 beginning bankroll)

    I thought you would need $2,289.72, not $2,279. Just wanna make sure I got it right

  4. #284
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Oh. Well I only bet 2279... I just misread the total. But that is what I bet.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  5. #285
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    Oh. Well I only bet 2279... I just misread the total. But that is what I bet.
    Reported.

  6. #286
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Reported.
    Damnit. One more report and I get banned (hopefully).
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  7. #287
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post

    $2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.
    Chalk i up, poopoo
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  8. #288
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Although I blew my separate bankroll for this, I am back in it. I plan to do "Not Russow/Wandy or Franklin by sub" @ 147.

  9. #289
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Just made this play:

    $1200 to win $73 on Not Guida by sub.

    Holding the rest back for Not Wand and Not Russow by sub when the lines open.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  10. #290
    Senior Member Vandelay's Avatar
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    Id rather put not franklin by sub in. Neither should happen though.

  11. #291
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vandelay View Post
    Id rather put not franklin by sub in. Neither should happen though.
    The line is a lot better on Not Franklin by sub for some reason (Wand never been subbed)... probably going to take that.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  12. #292
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Bet the fight to go the distance @+330, also hedged a bit with Wandy by (T)KO.

    Werdum is my big play of the night, with basically no pay back. Is he a lock?

  13. #293
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    I will be shocked if Russow beats Werdum. But then again, I doubt Werdum can get the TD, which is the only reason I havent unloaded on it. Should be a mismatch. Russow has never even been in the cage with a top 10 fighter, and Werdum has been beating Overeem's and Fedor's for damn near a decade.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  14. #294
    Senior Member Ludo's Avatar
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    The only thing that worries Me about the Werdum fight is the last time someone was that kind of favorite over Russow he used the hammerfist of doom for the upset.
    2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
    Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
    Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
    Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u

    2012: +20.311u

  15. #295
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Bet the fight to go the distance @+330, also hedged a bit with Wandy by (T)KO.

    Werdum is my big play of the night, with basically no pay back. Is he a lock?
    I am dumb...thought this was the 147 thread.

  16. #296
    Senior Member Vandelay's Avatar
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    Whats up with 5d not offering individual props for the Werdum Russow fight. I wanted to take not russow by sub.

  17. #297
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Because UFC 147 is fucking stupid.

  18. #298
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Because UFC 147 is fucking stupid.
    What is lowest number of PPV buys any UFc has ever done. This has to be the worst card ever that they expected us to buy.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  19. #299
    Senior Member Vandelay's Avatar
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    Im expecting maybe 125 thousand buys. Might be lower.

  20. #300
    Senior Member Ludo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    What is lowest number of PPV buys any UFc has ever done. This has to be the worst card ever that they expected us to buy.
    Modern Era has the lowest UFC PPV at 125k, UFC55.
    2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
    Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
    Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
    Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u

    2012: +20.311u

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