Play:
Not Evans by Submission -900 $900 to win $100. 5d won't let me go over $900 now. Probably drop another $600 once the limit is raised.
Evans has never even attempted a submission in the UFC. Davis is not going to be the first guy to get submitted here, as he is quite the grappler himself, and likes the submission game.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
10u @-1020
Will hedge a little with rashad sub of night probably
Adding $600 @ -1020 to win $58.82
So it is $1500 to win $158.82 I am going to stop there.
So... 2012 Parlay begins. I am going to use a $1500 bankroll for the year. That is equivalent to 9.3u for me, I am just going to play with the profit from 2011. From here on out, it rides.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
For all the BS I talked about not betting Sonnen. I am starting to think my 2 fighter parlay for this event will be Sonnen-Dunham.
i am slightly hesitant about Dunham. I was all about him before but I have some issues with Lentz. He is similar to Tyson Griffin and he was able to give Dunham a good fight(though Tyson is probably a better striker and also has better foot movement). Aurelio also gave dunham a good fight and sherk beat him. I know the Sherk Decision was lame. Dunham doesn't hit really really hard either. Lentz is an in your face fighter. I don't see what would stop Lentz from getting inside on Dunham. I don't think it will be especially hard punches..I could be wrong though.
The Griffin/Dunham fight was pretty much domination, in my opinion. That fight is actually the reason that I think Lentz has little chance here, with his best shot being to lock on a guillotine when Dunham is not suspecting it.
I heart cock
hmmmm ok
What about Oliveira? He should win that, I just finished looking at Wisely... I think he is behind everywhere, takedowns, striking, grappling... his best chance is to catch a submission on Oliveira, but that doesn't seem very likely.Originally Posted by sbjj
But, he is -500. I would do it in a parlay, but I can't find the other half of it. Lentz is hard to bet. He always keeps it close (except against Oliveira).
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Lentz lost soundly to Bocek. Olivieria was kicking his ass. The rest of his fights were close. Supposedly the Tyson Griffin fight was a bad decision. I think Dana gave Tyson his win bonus. Lentz is pretty good. He still a short stubby wrestler though. He should have trouble with Dunhams reach and wrestling/grappling ability. I haven't read much about Wisely yet. I should do that tonight. I am still hoping for some sort of line improvement but it is starting to seem like its not going to happen. Anyways, I have 3u on Maia. I am now thinking about a Chael/Dunham/Oliv parlay. Or all three straight up. 5dimes reduced juice isn't parlayable so I'm actually better off betting them straight up. We'll see if they offer it. I guess I'll wait for that, so no more bets until the day before. (I am still worried the lines will go to shit, nobody wants to bet Bisping)
Anybody have a vid of Lentz/Bocek?
So the 3 parlay candidates are Sonnen-Olive.-Dunham. The question is which of the 3 has the highest probability of losing.
And I agree with SPX. Dunham straight tooled Tyson both standing and on the ground. He was taking down Tyson easier than anyone(Sherk and Edgar) ever has. I think Dunham is finally realizing how good his wrestling really is, and I would not be surprised if he took Lentz down.
I will do a quick play by play...
Round 1...Bocek takes Lentz down. Lentz looks to have a guillotine, no he does not. Lentz can not get up.
Round 2...See Round 1.
Round 2...See Round 1.
To be honest, it looked like Bocek was not worried about being subbed at all...he seemed to almost give him the guillotines.
I think Oliveira has the highest chance of losing and is the least proven. may actually throw a little on wisely. Then dunham.
Oliveira actually has more fights than Dunham, and has beaten similar level of competition in the UFC, and has similar losses (Dunham beat Griffin and Escudero, Do Bronx beat Lentz and Escudero; Dunham lost to Guillard and Sherk, Do Bronx lost to Cerrone and Miller). I think the difference is that Oliveira is fighting a weaker opponent. I mean, Lentz did beat Griffin- who I condsider Dunham's best win. Oliveira beat the shit out of Lentz (I know it was not a win, but it is a loss in the same way Matt Hammill beat Jon Jones).
That is my issue with the Sonnen fight too... it is not that he is bad, it is that his opponent is going to make it a lot harder for him to win. The distance between Dunham and Lentz is shorter than the distance between Oliveira and Wisely IMO. The same issue with Sonnen. I actually think Sonnen has a better style matchup than Dunham, but I think Bisping is a tougher opponent overall than Lentz.
So I guess it goes Oliveira, Sonnen, Dunham... That is pretty much what the lines say to at this point.
But at the current lines, I think Dunham is the only one I would even consider.
Last edited by MMA_scientist; 01-25-2012 at 08:49 PM.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Where did you see wisely fight video
Btw sherdog scored Tyson lento 3 rounds for griffin. Mmajunkie scored it 29 28 tyson
Dunham gets all three rounds on sherdog. He gets two on junkie. Against Tyson that is.
Dunham killed Griffin. I think Dunham is a super good grappler... his standup is pretty good too, but his grappling IMO. Lentz is a one trick pony on the mat, but he is a pretty solid wrestler too, so there could be a lot of clinching.
Lentz can't beat him except by decision, and even then, it will close. I just wish the line was more like -250 than -350. It is -500 on some sites, which seems pretty damn silly to me. I try to save my -400 lines for things are pretty much locks in my view... I just, it doesn't seem like that kind of fight to me. Still, I am still thinking about betting it.
Maia is up to +140 od 5d. I really don't get that at all. I mean, Weidman is tough and may beat him, but I just don't understand how he can be favored.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I am going to add einemo to my bets. He is a lot bigger than russow and a very talented grappler. He should have a very big reach advantage as well. Russows striking isn't that great IMO. I def underrated him before but I don't think I am now
. What does everyone else think?
I like Einemo as a dog... but Russow is a pretty strong wrestler, he is going to be hard to get down. The thing that scares me is that Einemo is old and I think he only has 1 round in him.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
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