2012 Parlay

[MMA_scientist]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

yeah, i don't think she does anything better. But cardio makes cowards of men. But at -375, she is probably good to go. There are a lot of unanswered questions about her, but because the women's talent pool is so shallow, Rousey's other experience is even more relevant. Also female judo > female wrestling. Worldwide participation in female judo has got to be 50x that of female wrestling. Rousey is a tough grappler with better takedowns and she has the arms of a man. She is probably going to take her down and submit her.

[SPX]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

Coenen was supposed to have better submissions too, but we saw how that worked out. Who could've predicted Tate would ever sub Coenen?

Like I said, I already have dropped a bet on Rousey, so I obviously think she's going to win. But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round. I mean, fuck, maybe it's the lock of the century but with the amount of data we have to work with I just don't think that conclusion can be reached responsibly.

[Ludo]

Coenen was supposed to have better submissions too, but we saw how that worked out. Who could've predicted Tate would ever sub Coenen?

Like I said, I already have dropped a bet on Rousey, so I obviously think she's going to win. But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round. I mean, fuck, maybe it's the lock of the century but with the amount of data we have to work with I just don't think that conclusion can be reached responsibly.

Coenen wasn't known as an ultra talented grappler, just a submission artist. Her main base is striking. It's kind of like Mir and Minotauro. Mir isn't the better overall grappler, probably not even the better MMA grappler, but he is an astounding submission artist to the point that he can make up ground in skill gaps just by his talent for latching onto and finishing subs.

Rousey is a whole other animal. With a base in offensive grappling and elite level grappling at that. We're talking about the difference between someone with a long torso who pulls subs out of their ass and an olympic medalist who has dedicated their life to grappling.

[SPX]

I guess the point I'm trying to make that's not coming across is that I feel like before you can make a decision about how much of a lock a fight is I think you just have to have a certain minimum set of facts.

[Ludo]

So we're off. The first play is:

4u to win 1.333u on Ronda Rousey -375 for the March 3rd event.

I shouldn't have done the tallying up right before I posted this. It's 4u to win 1.143u on Rousey -350, not -375.

[Ludo]

I guess the point I'm trying to make that's not coming across is that I feel like before you can make a decision about how much of a lock a fight is I think you just have to have a certain minimum set of facts.

I agree that most times that is the case. But we have seen what happens when Tate can't get the takedown. Given Rousey's raw core strength and balance mixed with world class takedowns of her own I just don't see Tate being successful in getting this fight where she needs to get it to win(which is on the ground with her on top of Ronda).

[Svino]

But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round.

Well, you can't really expect to get a "true lock" at +350.

Speaking of that, I've been going back and collecting some fight data from the last couple years. I'll let you know if I come up with anything interesting, and I'm still in the middle of it.

But one result at a glance: UFC fighters from -400 to -599 seem very solid. But damn... I'm gonna stay away from guys steeper than -600. They look like the worst bet of any probability class. So far this year, they're 2-1. Last year, they went 5-3. I think it's gonna get even worse as I go back further, since there's still Gracie and Penn to go.

[poopoo333]

Who has been -600 or worse in the UFC this year?

[SPX]

Speaking of that, I've been going back and collecting some fight data from the last couple years. I'll let you know if I come up with anything interesting, and I'm still in the middle of it.

But one result at a glance: UFC fighters from -400 to -599 seem very solid. But damn... I'm gonna stay away from guys steeper than -600. They look like the worst bet of any probability class. So far this year, they're 2-1. Last year, they went 5-3. I think it's gonna get even worse as I go back further, since there's still Gracie and Penn to go.

That IS very interesting. I wonder what is up with that.

BTW, what fights are you referring to?

[Ludo]

I think I'll definitely be putting the parlay on Brian Stann over Alessio Sakara if it's still alive by then. I don't see how Stann loses that fight. Same with Vitor over Wanderlei, again assuming this shit is still going by then.

[SPX]

I agree that Stann should walk away with that shit, but his line sucks. Sakara was actually on a nice little run before the Weidman fight, though I don't think any of the guys he beat were anywhere near as good of strikers as Stann.

And Vitor's going to smash Wanderlei. I'll be very surprised if that fight gets out of the 1st round.

[poopoo333]

Fights I am real confident in for the future:

Kongo over Hunt
Jones over Rashad
Tom Lawlor over Jason MacDonald
Vitor over Wanderlei


Don't consider them "locks" but I don't see those guys losing

[SPX]

I'm with you on Vitor.

[Ludo]

Fights I am real confident in for the future:

Kongo over Hunt
Jones over Rashad
Tom Lawlor over Jason MacDonald
Vitor over Wanderlei


Don't consider them "locks" but I don't see those guys losing

I'm going to pretty much stay away from heavyweight fights on this shit, too many variables with guys that big. Jones/Rashad has too much going on with the bad blood to be sure about. We've heard shit from both sides about Evans schooling Jones in sparring and vice versa. Lawlor doesn't really fit the bill of the guys McDonald typically loses to, but McDonald is pretty old now, so I guess he could probably get fucked up all around like Belcher did to him. My only concern would be Lawlor's conditioning issues(which cost Me money against Aaron Simpson).

[Ludo]

I'm with you on Vitor.

Time has been much kinder to Vitor since they last met. He knows how to find the chin about as well as anyone in the division and Wanderlei's has deteriorated in a big way. If it lasts more than 3 minutes I'll be surprised.

[poopoo333]

I actually think Jones is a no brainer over Rashad. Jones blows Phil Davis' MMA wrestling out of the water imo, and actually knows how to use his reach. I doubt Rashad is going to be able to outwrestle/stuff/outstrike Jones. His only chance is a big punch imo.

I don't think MacDonald has anything in him anymore, it is more of a fade on him

[SPX]

Time has been much kinder to Vitor since they last met. He knows how to find the chin about as well as anyone in the division and Wanderlei's has deteriorated in a big way. If it lasts more than 3 minutes I'll be surprised.

Honestly, a truly accurate line for Vitor is probably more like -900. I mean, does Wanderlei beat him more than once in 10 fights? I really doubt it.

[poopoo333]

How much do you have on Vitor X?

[SPX]

I actually think Jones is a no brainer over Rashad. Jones blows Phil Davis' MMA wrestling out of the water imo, and actually knows how to use his reach. I doubt Rashad is going to be able to outwrestle/stuff/outstrike Jones. His only chance is a big punch imo.

At +400, I'll take Rashad.

I don't think MacDonald has anything in him anymore, it is more of a fade on him

Well he did beat Jensen at least and Lawlor has proven to have questionable sub defense, but yeah, I expect J-Mac to lose.

[SPX]

How much do you have on Vitor X?

I dropped 4u on him at -250.