Northcoast
4'* Saints PLAYOFF GOY
3'* N Eng
Marq2*-Over N Eng
Marq1*-Under G Bay
Marq1* Under Hst
Marq1* Over N O
Reg Op-G Bay
Reg Op-Balt
Dom Chambers Today's winners ...
My 80 Dime winner is on the home underdog San Francisco 49ers in the NFC playoff game against the New Orleans Saints, Checking the sports books in Las Vegas at 6 a.m. and the Niners are gettang 3 ½ points. There was a 4s out there, so always sheop around to make sure you get the best number. My 40 Dime play is on the under in the Denver Broncos-New England Patriots game. The number poseed there is 51.
ANALYSIS
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: The last time we saw the Saints, they were dismantling the Detroit Lions 45-28. There was not much not to like about the Saints. They ran the ball and pass it at ease.
The Saints have the top-ranked offenae in the NFL . Drew Brees set passing record this year.
This is a different week and a different opponent. As good as the Saints offense can be, the San Francisco 49ers defense is just as nasty.
The Saints were 9-0 at home, averaging 41.6 points and 507.4 yards per game. They were different on the road, with a 5-3 record, 27.3 points and 441.6 yards per game. The Saints, 0-4 in road playoff games, are a different team away from the Superdome. And who can’t remembeer the 41-36 disaster last season in Seattle?
The recipe for success for the 49ers is nothing new. It’s run ball with Frank Gore, have quarterback Alex Smith manage the game, play great defense. The Niners allow a mere 10.9 points a game at home. The Niners average 23.7 points a game, but that average goes up to 27.6 at home.
And don’t forget the kicking game, which the Niners also have edge. San Francisco kicker David Akers set a record with 44 field goals this season, including seven farther than 50 yards.
The Niners are going to run the ball. As good as the Saints offense can be, their defense is ranked 24th in the league.
Another stat that comes into play especially in playoff games is turnovers. The 49ers had plus-28 turnover margin. They led the league in both takeawaes with 28 and fewest giveaways with 10. Last week against the Lions, there were two or three interception drops by the Lions. That will not happen this week.
And do not discount the week off the Niners had last week. That gives an extra week of rest and to heal. That’s huge this time of the year.
Take the Niners and the points.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: The reason for the under in this game is not much to do with the New England Patriots and more to do with the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos, with Tim Tebow, have the league’s top rushing attack. Look for the Broncos to establish the run and keep the ball out of the hands of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
Last week, the Steelers dared Tebow to beat them with his arm, and he did, completing 316 yards passing in a 29-23 OT win. The Patriots will not fall victim to that ploy.
The last time they played the Patriots won 41-23, but the Broncos imploded, committing three turnovers in the second quarter.
The Broncos are stressing to elimineate mistakes and keep ball control. That’s the only recipe of success that will work for them.The Patriots have the 31st ranked defense. So look for the Broncos to take advantage of that to maintain ball control.
With the total set so high, it’s going to need two-way scoring for it to get there. I don’t expect the Broncos to post many points. Since this is the second meeting, look for the Broncos’ defenee to be a bit more familiar with Brady and his aerial circus.
Take the under
Jeff Benton Saturday's Action
30 Dime winner going out on the New Orleans Saints as the road favarite this Saturday late afternoon agaienst the San Francisco 49ers. At the time I release this winner, the Saints are listed as the 4-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime bonus winner in college basketball on the Florida State Seminoles as the home underdog versus the North Carolina Tar Heels. At the time I release this winner, the Seminoles are the 6 1/2-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
Going to look for the experiance factor to play a deciding edge in this Saints-Niners showdown today at Candlestick Park.
San Francisco has most definitely made great strides in their first season under Jim Harbaugh, but at the end of the day I doubt whether Alex Smih and their fairly pedesetrian offense will be able to match shots with Drew Brees and his cast of weaopons?
Granted, the Saints are a different team outdoors, and the 49ers bring one of the top defenses in the league into the stadium today, but I still see New Orleans hanging close to 30-points on the board which means the Niners will have to come up with at least 27-points to get the cover. I don't think they can do that, as the Saints defense has been solid versus the run, and I am sure they will blitz the hell out of Smith if he is in dropback position.
This is San Fran's first playoff game in years, while this time of the year has become commonplace for New Orleans. I am aware that the Saints have never won a playoff game away from home, but that will not stop me from backing them today. It won't be easy, but the Saints will be a touchdown better than the 49ers when the smoke has cleared.
The Saints running attack has been a definite weapon this year, and Darren Sproles has given Sean Payton the "player in space" that is needed to neutralize some of the things the 49ers like to do on defense.
I am laying the road chalk with New Orleans to be playing football for at least one more weekend.
ANALYSIS # 2
Dangerous spot for the Tar Heels today, as they catch a Florida State team in serious payback-mode. Last year UNC used a three-pointer at the buzzer to beat the Sems on their home floor, 72-70.
Florida State did grab the cover in that game as the 2 1/2-point underdog, and the points have been the play with State when they face North Carolina, as Florida State has gone 6-1 against the spread the last seven times the schools have faced one another, and they have been able to split the last four meetings straight up.
Seminoles have the size with James and Gibson to neutralize the Tar Heels bigs, and they also Ian Miller now eligible after missing the first nine games of the season. Miller has been pouring 15-ppg since his return.
Florida State has gone 7-2 against the spread the as a home underdog since the '08-'09 season, and they are getting just enough today to make me interested in backing them.
Another tight one between these two ACC rivals, as the Seminoles make it a 7-1 series spread run in the underdog role.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ San Francisco Under 47: Google News Play. The Niners know that they cannot beat the the Saints in a shootout and they have one weapon on their team to help them make sure that doesn't happen, and his name is Frank Gore. The Saints were 12th in the league vs the run and they will be taking on Frank Gore (1211 yards, 4.3 ypc and 8 TD's) and the Niners 8th ranked rushing offense. All tat running that the Niners will be doing will eat up plenty of clock as they know that is one way to keep this offense off the field. The Saints offense is number 1 on the year, but in their last 4 road games on grass field they were able to score just 23.8 ppg. The Saints do come up with a lot of big plays, but the feeling here is that the Niners very good defense will make this team work their way down the field with some time consuming drives. The Niners allow just 10.9 ppg at home and their home games overall have put up just 38.5 ppg. I really don't expect more than 44 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992 and 14-4 UNDER in home games after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
2 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans -3,5 over SAN FRANCISCO: Gonna take the square stand here. I feel that their is no way the niners will be able to score enough points to keep this game close. I expect the Niner running game to help keep the scoring down, but it will also give them fewer possessions and I don't see them scoring every time they have the ball. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a them them this year. Going up against the Niners defense, I don't expect the Saints to score every time as well, but they will put enough points on the board to get the cover here. I expect the Saints to win by a TD.
Sports Wagers NBA 3-0 +664.00 Last Night
L.A. CLIPPERS -2 over L.A. Lakers Pinnacle
What a great spot for the Clippers to really show the city and the rest of the NBA that they're the “new kids in town”. The Lakers are getting far too much credit after extending their winning streak to five and running their record to 9-4. What most bettors forget is that Kobe's team opened 0-2 and were 3-3 at one point. The five wins in a row came against Golden State, Memphis, Phoenix, Utah and Cleveland last night. All were at home with the exception of an OT win in Utah. The Lakers did all they could to hold off a furious rally by the Cavs last night. Now the Lakers will get right back to work and play their sixth game in eight nights. They're tired and they're overvalued. The Lakers have played 13 games to the Clippers eight. The Clip Joint are rested and after a bit of a tough start, they've now won four of five. Included in that run is wins over the Heat and Trail Blazers. The Clippers are getting very familiar with one another and all that talent is beginning to gel. This is a spot where actuality trumps reputation. Play L.A. Clippers -2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Minnesota +8½ over ATLANTA Pinnacle
The dismantling of the Timberwolves occurred a few years ago with the departure of Kevin Garnett and it's been downhill ever since. Not much attention has been given to the T-Wolves and that's going to allow them to sneak up on some teams and steal some wins, especially teams from the East, who rarely see them. Several items point in their favor and we'll start with Darko Milicic. Minnesota constantly fed the ball in the post to Milicic even though he was their least effective offensive player on a per-possession basis. Merely redistributing these possessions to players who can either score or pass will substantially improve the Minnesota offense. Second, they have Rick Adelman coaching, which means two things: (1) They have Adelman, and (2) they no longer have Kurt Rambis. Huge difference and it's showing. The T-Wolves are 4-4 over their past eight games. They took the Bulls to the wire recently and went into New Orleans last night and won by seven. They catch the complacent Hawks after Atlanta beat Charlotte by 30. The Hawks are now 8-4 but that's as misleading as their 44-wins from a season ago. The Hawks gave up more points than they scored in the regular season, went 10-17 after the All-Star break, lost one of the top sixth men in free agency and didn't do much to replace him. Last week they lost Al Horford and there's no way they're going to replace him. What we have here is an overpriced Hawks team playing an underpriced Wolves squad and the result is an overlay with the pup having a great shot to win this one straight up. Play: Minnesota +8½ (Risking 2.14 units). Play: Minnesota +346 (Risking 0.5 units).
WUNDERDOG
CBB 154-124 Season-to-Date +$3500
Game: Ole Miss at Auburn (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 124.5 -110
The Ole Miss Rebels are off to an 11-5 start on the season and travel to play an Auburn team that has done very well at home at 9-1 for the season. Auburn has struggled for points in their last three games, but those were facing some elite teams in Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State. They have seen 10 of their other 13 games produce 65 points or more on the offensive end, which puts a low total in jeopardy of going over the top. The Tigers have played their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record OVER the total, and this series has played up-tempo with each of the last four producing a win on the OVER.
Play this one OVER the total.
Bob Christ’s breakdown of Pro Football Playoffs January 13, 2012 11:16 AM by Bob Christ
Last Week 1-3)
PRO FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS
SATURDAY, Jan. 14
Denver (9-8) at New England (13-3)
Time: 1:30 p.m. PT
Line: Patriots by 13½ (50)
Weather: Low-20s, clear
Facts: New England was 1-2 vs. playoff teams in 2011, winning 41-23 at Denver in Week 15. The Broncos were outscored by 81 points this season, second worst margin ever for a playoff team. Denver had 252 yards rushing vs. the Patriots and still blown out. Patriots TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski teamed for 13 catches and 179 yards vs. Denver. Tim Tebow averaged an NFL season-high 15 yards a drop-back last week vs. Pittsburgh. A week earlier his norm was 2.1 vs. KC, second worst.
Analysis: The Broncos, off a 29-23 win vs. Pittsburgh , have had three losses that exceeded 25 points this season -- three more than the other Final 8 squads combined. And, Denver is on short rest vs. a bye team led by QB Tom Brady, which was 2-1 as a double-digit choice this season. In league postseason history, teams in this spot have gone 1-4 (SU & ATS) and have been outscored 169-62. It won’t help that Broncos defensive boss Dennis Allen picked this week to flirt with St. Louis about its head coach opening.
Forecast: Patriots 40, Broncos 14
New Orleans (14-3) at San Francisco (13-3)
Time: 5 p.m. PT
Line: Saints by 3½ (47)
Weather: High 50s, clear
Facts: The 49ers, 7-0-1 ATS at home, have a turnover edge of +28, second best in NFL history. New Orleans , behind QB Drew Brees and the most productive offense in NFL annals, has scored at least 42 points in its past four games, all indoors. By contrast, SF has scored that much just once in the past eight seasons. 49ers QB Alex Smith was sacked a league-high 44 times in the regular season. The Saints, though, have had only two sacks their past three games covering 131 drop-backs.
Analysis: Things have turned somewhat sour for SF since its 9-1 start. For instance, the Niners gave up nine sacks to Baltimore on Thanksgiving. And what’s with RB Frank Gore? His production has dropped from 4.9 yards a carry and five 100-yard rushing games in the first half of the season to a norm of 53.6 a game and 3.5 a carry the final eight games. Defensively, through 14 games, only one team eclipsed 100 rushing yards. In the final two immensely important games, bottomfeeders Seattle and St. Louis both surpassed 100.
Forecast: Saints 38, 49ers 19
SB Professor Early NCAAB Picks 1/14
As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's NCAAB Picks:
2 PM EST
578. Florida St. +7* (mostly +6.5's but system says buy up to +7)
Rest of Games:
545. Villanova +8.5
547. St. Bonaventure +8.5
597. Oregon +8.5
574. Rhode Island +6.5
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