The 49ers have their work cut out for them today, as they face off against a fantastic offense, and will need to play well on both sides of the ball to have a chance to advance past this round. Having an extra week off to rest, and prepare is a huge advantage for them.
The Saints have been a different team on the road then in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, and the Drew Brees numbers on the road are very comparable to Alex Smiths numbers at home.
Brees road vs. Smith home in key passing efficiency indicators
Brees on road: 70.6% completions, 4.8% TD, 2.2% INT, 8.0 YPA, 100.7 rating
Smith at home: 62.7% completions, 5.7% TD 1.4% INT, 7.8 YPA, 99.8 rating
The 49ers defense should be able to keep them in this game if they can continue to play outstanding inside the 20. This year they allowed TD's on just 25% of Red Zone possessions at home (#1 in NFL) , and as good as the Saints offense is, on the road this year their Red Zone offense has struggled, ranking 26th in the NFL, scoring TD's on 43.75% of Red Zone possessions. They will need to do better offensively in the Red Zone as they have been horrible over the season, but have shown improvement over their last 3 games, and face off against a Saints team that was 31st in Red Zone defense, and allowed TD's on 73.68% of RZ drives on the road (62.79% overall)
I like the 49ers to come out focused and prepared and fully expect them to give the Saints all they can handle. I am concerned about the added pressure of a playoff game, and the experience on the Saints side of the field, however I like getting the 3 points in the 1st Half before Payton can make his halftime adjustments.
San Francisco +3 (-120) 1st Half
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