I think Oliveira will be too much for Brookins. He is definitely better standing, if Brookins can take him down, we will have to see how good his defense is, but I think Oliveira will probably get it done. Depends on the line of course, but I would be looking for something close to even, under -150
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Opened Oliveira -300 Brookins +220 on 5d
I like Oliveira here. Not really impressed with brookins. Oliveira should have the better standup and ground game.
Anybody have any thoughts on Kampmann/Ellenberger or betting it? I like Kampmann at +200 and I am thinking about playing the distance prop.
I think slight edge to Ellenberger. Kampmann has value IMO. I think it will be close, with Ellenberger getting the better of it early by mixing up a few takedowns. Kampmann might surprise Ellenberger with his underrated wrestling though. I don't have confidence either way, but @ +200, I really don't think you can go wrong on Kampmann
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Also gotta take consideration in this being a 5 round fight. I see Kampmann getting takedowns of his own in rounds 3,4, and 5.
Ellenberger by split decision @+1200 has value. Actually, it is a lock.
Ellenberger always gasses. He beat the shit out of Diego early on but Diego almost finished him in the third. I think that if he can keep from getting finished in rounds 1 and 2, then Kamp could take 3, 4 and 5. And it wouldn't shock me to see him take 1 and 2 as well.
I heart cock
Ellenberger has big power and Kampmann frequently gets dropped. Cardio advantage goes to Kampmann. Kampmann probably has a bjj edge too. Ellenberger is really going to have to watch out for those guillotines which will make his takedowns a lot harder to land. As the fight goes on I could definelty see it getting hard for Ellenberger. As he gasses(if he does) he could getp icked apart by Kampmann. Kampmanns striking is pretty solid, probably better that Ellenbergers technically. He does have less power though. This is a close and interesting fight. @ +200 I would agree that Kampmann is the best pick.
When has Kampmann been dropped since the Marquardt fight @ 185?
That is a good point. Only the much larger Marky Marquardt and Paul daley dropped him. They both can drop anyone. Especially Paul Daley.
Paul Daley didn't even drop him, he just beat the fuck out of him against the fence.
On the feet I don't think it is a given either guy has the advantage. Ellenberger looked improved on the feet against Diego, but Diego is just a flat foot brawler. Kampmann has more technical striking..real curious to see how they match up.
hehe
Jake Ellenberger hits back at claims he has issues with his cardio following the Diego Sanchez fight.
“Well first I think Diego is an extremely tough fight. I think he’s a tough fight for anybody in the world. He would be a tough fight for anybody who competes in MMA. I say that because you can watch this guy on TV and say wow he looks tough, but anybody who fights him and you’ll see how tough he is,”
“He’s not going to roll over, he fights with a lot of heart and that’s not that common. A lot of guys don’t have a lot of heart and he definitely does. He definitely had me in a bad position in that third round. That’s a very hard position, but I actually love that position. I do that position a lot myself so I know how extremely tough it is to get out of it.”
Ellenberger feels he could have gone five rounds with Sanchez in his last bout.
“In the last fight could I have gone five rounds? Absolutely. I think people need to take in mind (saying) ‘oh he looked tired.’ Well, he had my back. That is the worst position to be in, in a fight. I’d rather be mounted than for someone to have your back because it’s so hard to escape. I obviously escaped the position at the end of the fight, but could I have fought two more rounds? Absolutely,”
“People can speculate but if I had to go five (rounds) I absolutely could.”
Ellenberger also comments on the nature of the sport and has no concern for outside opinions.
“People are always going to judge and say what they want, and jump ship, but that’s the sincerity of this sport,”
“People like to make opinions and change their minds on very small things.”
“People talk all the time, I don’t really care to be honest. I’m just going to control what I can control, and I’m going to prepare myself for five rounds knowing that this fight could definitely go five rounds,”
Kampman slowed down a bit in the Alves fight too but it was a fast pace fight. his striking is versatile but he seems to leave himself open for a counter right and that is Ellenberger's money maker. Ellenberger's striking is pretty simple. he has a powerful counter right hand and knees and that's pretty much it. Simple but effective, so far. considered the odds, its Kampman or nothing .. Im staying away from this fight though lol
Some thoughts on this card:
The line on Kampmann / Ellenberger was right about where I thought it belonged, so I probably won't bet it. I agree that the 5 round length probably makes in Kampmann or nothing.
Oliveira certainly looks better than Brookins, but I don't want to bet him at -200 odds on a main card until I see more of what he looks like when he can't get the sub.
I'm not sure Marcello deserves to be a +165 dog to Silica. His striking is weak and Sicilia has some power, but I think Marcello has a good chance of getting the fight to the ground and doing his thing. Also, the guy Sicilia lost to was the last-picked guy in the house, Chris Saunders.
Chris Tickle is really bad on the ground.
Does anyone know why Proctor is such a significant favorite over Larsen? It's not obvious to me.
I'm calling an "unproven cardio alert" on two guys: Myles Jury and Pat Schilling. Neither has ever fought over 5 minutes. So even though I don't think Saunders is any good, I also don't like Jury at a -300 line.
Schilling wrestled for 1 year in college and Max Holloway is a white belt in brazilian jiut jisu I beleive. Could be a mismatch on the ground. Holloways standup looked pretty decent against Poireir though.
I heard Ellenberger's best round is his 5th
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
I really like the Holloway by decision at over +500 that BookMaker has up now. Holloway is the favorite to win the fight and 3 of his 4 pro wins are by decision.
Kinda liking Brookins decision +250 on 5d
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Luke
