UFC 152

[poopoo333]

• Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson - for inaugural flyweight title
• Michael Bisping vs. Brian Stann
• B.J. Penn vs. TBA
• Evan Dunham vs. T.J. Grant
• Vinny Magalhaes vs. Igor Pokrajac
• Marcus Brimage vs. Jim Hettes
• Seth Baczynski vs. Simeon Thoresen
• Matt Hamill vs. Roger Hollett
• Dan Miller vs. Sean Pierson
• Charles Oliveira vs. Cub Swanson

• Mitch Gagnon vs. Walel Watson

BJ Penn vs TBA is gonna end up being BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald @ UFC on FOX 5 I think

[SPX]

Benavidez finally gonna get a belt.

[poopoo333]

I think Benavidez will be able to beat Johnson...line is a bit high but I think he may be good for it.

Bisping is going to beat Stann clearly, imo. Has the edge in technical striking and grappling...Stann can KO him, and that's it.

Dunham vs Grant is going to be awesome and pretty close. I think Dunham is slightly better everywhere but nothing would really surprise me in this fight. Picking Dunham though


Oh, and Aloe-Vera vs Swanson...

[MMA_scientist]

They dont expect anyone to pay for this bullshit do they?

[SPX]

I agree with you about Stann. I got to talk to him once for the magazine. He is nice as hell, and not in a fake way. I think he is a genuinely good-hearted dude. He probably doesn't have the technical skills to beat Bisping, but it's not out of the question for him to KO him. He has dynamite in his hands. He KOd fucking Leben after all.

As for Beni and Johnson, I do favor Benavidez but I'm not sure I consider him a shoe-in. Johnson could win.

[SPX]

They dont expect anyone to pay for this bullshit do they?

Yeah, you're right, the only title that matters is JDS's.

Cuz he's SOOO BIGGGG!!!!

[poopoo333]

I agree with you about Stann. I got to talk to him once for the magazine. He is nice as hell, and not in a fake way. I think he is a genuinely good-hearted dude. He probably doesn't have the technical skills to beat Bisping, but it's not out of the question for him to KO him. He has dynamite in his hands. He KOd fucking Leben after all.

Yeah, Stann is a REAL likeable guy...it's going to suck to see some douche like Bisping beat him.

[SPX]

Yeah, Stann is a REAL likeable guy...it's going to suck to see some douche like Bisping beat him.

I actually kind of like Bisping and think he's a little misunderstood, sort of like Rashad.

[poopoo333]

I actually kind of like Bisping and think he's a little misunderstood, sort of like Rashad.

I see what you are saying...he has two sides to him for sure, but doing shit like spitting at Jorge Rivera's corner is a bit silly. I think he is very underrated though by a lot of MMA fans. I actually believe he is really good and is capable of beating most MWs.

Edit: I originally thought Sonnen, Weidman, and Silva were the guys that Bisping probably won't beat. But now that I think about it, Okami and Shields are bad match ups for him too.

[SPX]

I think Bisping has continued to improve. The dude has been around for a long time now and I think he's come a long way since losing to Hamill.

As for your list, Sonnen would probably beat him again. Weidman perhaps, though I'm not positive about that. Not sure about Okami either. But I would favor Bisping against Shields. If Shields can't get the takedown, he's fucked. And I'm not sure he can get it, at least not consistently.

[poopoo333]

I think Bisping has continued to improve. The dude has been around for a long time now and I think he's come a long way since losing to Hamill.

As for your list, Sonnen would probably beat him again. Weidman perhaps, though I'm not positive about that. Not sure about Okami either. But I would favor Bisping against Shields. If Shields can't get the takedown, he's fucked. And I'm not sure he can get it, at least not consistently.

I think Weidman would have his way with Bisping to be honest...I think Weidman would probably be able to beat Sonnen at his own game and I am a Sonnen nuthugger. I am really high on Weidman, have been since he was announced to fight Sakara. He is great and is only improving. Oh and while on the subject on Sonnen, people think Bisping beat him but I didn't see it that way. People were just really surprised Bisping defended the TD as well as he did. I also read recently Sonnen had some issues going into that fight as well (crazy weight cut and had trouble with the commission all of fight week).

As for Okami...it's an interesting one. I'd actually like to see it one day.

I would not favor Bisping over Shields for the simple fact of how judging works in MMA. If Shields has Bisping up against the cage for 2 minutes of the fight but Bisping is defending well and stuffing Shields, Bisping outstrikes Shields for 2 minutes of the fight, and Shields gets a takedown and stays on top for a minute and doesn't do much=90% of the time in MMA, Shields gets that round.

[SPX]

Weidman to me is like Cormier. For some reason I just can't get on board. I keep thinking they're going to lose any day now.

I thought Sonnen beat Bisping, but it was very close. And if anything it is the Sonnen fight that makes me think Bisping would probably beat Shields. Bisping defended so well against Sonnen that I think he will just shrug Shields off and go to work on his face.

[poopoo333]

Nothing to argue there...hopefully one day we see the fight..it's interesting to me. I actually want to watch Shields vs Palhares next.

So back to original point...I am really confident in Bisping over Stann. The Stann by KO factor is there, but you can always hedge with Stann by KO or Stann KOTN. I would bet Bisping now, but to my surprise Bispings line is holding around -170 and was even down in the -150s at one point. I don't want to bet the line around -170, then have the chance to take it later on at -140

[SPX]

I think most people feel like we do: Bisping is more technical and a better grappler. Stann's one out is his KO power. So I doubt the line drops too much more than it already has.

Me, personally, I'd probably say it's about 70/30 or 75/25 in favor of Bisping. But we'll see.

[MMA_scientist]

Bisping is a kickboxer with no power and bad defense. He usually wins with his grappling. I think Stann will light him up standing to be honest. But Bisping can win by getting it to the ground, which he almost always does. I will probably bet Bisping at -170.

[poopoo333]

Me, personally, I'd probably say it's about 70/30 or 75/25 in favor of Bisping. But we'll see.

I don't really know much about the correlation with percentages and lines, but wouldn't 70% mean the line should be WAY more than -170 and would warrant a pretty big bet?

[MMA_scientist]

I don't really know much about the correlation with percentages and lines, but wouldn't 70% mean the line should be WAY more than -170 and would warrant a pretty big bet?

-170 implies a 63% win rate

-233 implies a 70% win rate

[SPX]

I don't really know much about the correlation with percentages and lines, but wouldn't 70% mean the line should be WAY more than -170 and would warrant a pretty big bet?

If in fact Bisping has a 70% chance to win then the line should be -233. So yeah, -170 would be low in that case. But I could always be wrong and Stann could show us just how wrong I am when he blows Bisping to pieces in 30 seconds. We both know how this sport is.

BTW, if you ever want to know what the proper line is for any given percentage, this thing is pretty handy:

http://www.covers.com/sportsbetting/money_lines.aspx

[poopoo333]

Oh, I was wrong then. Thanks guys

[SPX]

Speaking of setting a percentage for each fight and then converting that into a moneyline, does anyone really do that anymore? I used to do it for every fight and that's how I made my betting decisions, as per Performify's betting guide. But now I just look at a line and make a decision on whether or not I think it's a good deal. I get the impression that's how most of us are doing it rather than literally saying, "Well I think he has a 70% chance of winning, but the line says it's only 63%! That line is off!"