^^ I never did it that way. I have always thought it was a pretty inexact science. I generally just go with whether I have confidence that they guy will win, and if I am willing to pay the price. It is really the same thing as setting a line and comparing to the existing line, just less exact. I do think it is helpful to have that knowledge, but I have never really felt that anyone could accurately set a winning percentage.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Yeah, I don't set percentages or anything. I basically just bet bigger on lines I think are way off and if I am in confident in that side to begin with. For example, Daniel Cormier/Josh Barnett. I thought Cormier should have been around -200 and he was at + odds so I put 10 units down on it
Yes, but even then, at least implicitly, by saying the line is "way off" or that a fighter should be "around -200" still refers to percentages. After all, the line itself has no other meaning.Originally Posted by poopoo333
I heart cock
i never do the percentage thing and convert it to a line. its how confidence i am on certain fighter to win the fight and how steep the line on him is then decide how much i want to bet. though i never bet on a guy with great odds if i dont think he has at least 1 clear way to win. But i think Stan will edge Bisping standing and Bisping is going to have to take stan down to beat him. Bisping td is overrated tho, imo. From what i remember, he usually able to get guys down after they starting to gas. otherwise, his td isnt that good. I think stan beats him.
In my opinion, Bisping is the better striker as well as a better grappler..I really think Stann's actual kickboxing ability is very overrated
That's what I do for the main card fights (or matches where I feel pretty confident in my memory of both fighters).
Probably Svino is the only one here that actually does the math. I just use a calculator on the internet. But for me it is more clear to think in terms of odds... like rather than -200, I think 2:1... But everything everyone is describing is really just lazily converting it and deciding if it is accurate. Saying "I just think about my confidence on fighter and how steep the line on him is then decide if it is worth it" is the exact same thing, just less precise. That said, that's pretty much what I do too.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I think the time you really need to be careful about percentages is when combining multiple bets on one fight, so you can add percentages together and see what total odds you are effectively betting.
Demetrious Johnson vs Joseph Benavidez - 5 rounds - UFC 152 propositions Sat 9/22 1003 Johnson/Benavidez goes 5 round distance -300 10:30PM 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance +220 Sat 9/22 1005 Johnson wins inside distance +1170 10:30PM 1006 Not Johnson inside distance -2510 Sat 9/22 1007 Johnson wins by 5 round decision +310 10:30PM 1008 Not Johnson by 5 round decision -430 Sat 9/22 1009 Benavidez wins inside distance +282 10:30PM 1010 Not Benavidez inside distance -402 Sat 9/22 1011 Benavidez wins by 5 round decision -120 10:30PM 1012 Not Benavidez by 5 round decision -120 Sat 9/22 1013 Johnson/Benavidez draw +6000 10:30PM 1014 Fight not a draw -15000 Brian Stann vs Michael Bisping - 3 rounds - UFC 152 propositions Sat 9/22 1103 Stann/Bisping goes 3 round distance -145 10:30PM 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance +105
....Vladdy Matyushenko Steps in to Face Matt Hamill at UFC 152
I never do it. To me it almost doesn't matter how you look at it. I know what -200 pays out and I can estimate a fighters probability of winning and compare the two.
What?
2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
Lmfao
Vladdy/Hamill is going to be one boring ass fight.
Wow, Jones under -500?
I heart cock
Yeah..surprised. He is going to win and I want to bet it.
But after today, I hope the Karate Kid gets teh fastest KO in UFC history
Luke, we may as well put our new BetDSI bankroll as well as our $500 free play bank roll on Jones here.
Well, I just put 7.5 units on Jones @-475.
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