UFC 154

[poopoo333]

GSP/Condit: GSP has question marks surrounding him with the long layoff/serious injury. I think he matches up great stylistically with Condit and should win. I think he has the striking edge and the wrestling/grappling edge. Condit has shown weakness to wrestlers in the past and GSP fights to his opponents weaknesses and I think he will look to take the fight down. I think it will look like a bit more competitive of a fight than GSP/Alves was actually. However, with the ACL injury and the layoff, I wouldn't bet GSP straight at around -350 or whatever he is. I might bet him by decision if it gets to around even money. I actually have a tiny bet on Condit by decision @+1015 right now but I fully expect it to lose.

Martin Kampmann vs Johnny Hendricks: This fight is very hard to call in my opinion. I originally thought Hendricks would be able to get into Kampmann's face, close the distance, land some big shots and get some takedowns. However, Hendricks has good credentials but he really hasn't seemed to translate his wrestling TOO good to MMA but he does it pretty well. I think he will be able to get Kampmann down a few times, but I do not think he is going to be able to run a takedown clinic on Kampmann and hold him there for 15 minutes. Kampmann is pretty good at getting back up, but the fight with Shields worries me. A gassed Shields was able to get Kampmann down, and advance position well. Alves was able to advance position on the mat as well. Kampmann also has the tendency to get backed up into the fence often (as we all know), but he isn't easy to put away. Kampmann will probably outstrike Hendricks in a straight striking match, but Hendricks has those big hooks and Kampmann is susceptible to those big hooks. Kampmann also had good takedowns of his own, he seems to take fighters down best when he is in the clinch, not when he shoots doubles/singles. Hendricks has been taken down quite a bit for a wrestler, and I think Kampmann might be able to get him down. This is a hard fight to call and I lean Hendricks to get another close decision. Also, Kampmann +3.5 would be a decent bet as well, but I have a feeling that will be close to -200.


I still have to look at the rest, but I think I am going to end up convincing myself into a Tom Lawlor pick over Francis Carmont as crazy as it sounds.

[SPX]

As long as GSP fights like GSP, I think we'll see a pretty dominant performance. He'll take Condit down and do his GSP thing. And that's pretty much that.

As for Kampmann/Hendricks, I dunno, I guess I kind of expect Hendricks to take it, or maybe that's just the pessimist in me. But Kampmann can pretty much win any fight and has a long history of playing the spoiler. Kampmann is very hittable and Hendricks could potentially land a big punch that finishes him. Or maybe Hendricks can wall n' stall his way to a decision. But Hendricks is also the guy who lost a decision to Rick Story, who Kampmann convincingly outwrestled and outfought. Kampmann also held his own in the wrestling department with Shields.

So Hendricks via KO or boring decision, or Kampmann via decision or submission would be my guess.

[Ludo]

Kampmann is definitely hittable, he actually got outlanded by Story in their fight if I remember right. Hendricks has the tools to win this, but like you said Martin has ruined a few people's special nights. It's hard to say here. On the one hand Kampmanns defensive wrestling is underrated, but on the other hand while he's clearly the superior technical striker he has a tendency to allow himself to be drawn into sloppy brawls which doesn't favor him at all.

Both have advantages depending on how this plays out. In a straight up kickboxing fight where Martin stays disciplined he takes this fight. There aren't a whole lot of guys at 170 who can play Kampmann's game and come out of it ahead. The same can be said for Hendricks' game either, though.

[SPX]

Yeah, I mean, it was a super close fight and was a while back at this point, but you can't forget that Kampmann holds a win over the current interim champ.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I mean, it was a super close fight and was a while back at this point, but you can't forget that Kampmann holds a win over the current interim champ.

That's actually another example of his underrated grappling. Thanks brah

[SPX]

Well . . . you're welcome.

I actually think Kampmann might be a better grappler than he is a striker. He has very good wrestling AND submission skills.

Most importantly though, he is a true mixed martial artist. Most fighters lack one thing or another. Maybe they're good at striking and wrestling, but they have a hard time finishing subs. Or they're good at wrestling and subs, but they're striking is below average. Or they can strike and are good at subs when they can get into position to get them, but they struggle with guys who have strong wrestling ability.

I wouldn't call Kampmann EXCELLENT at anything . . . but he's very good at everything. Truly well-rounded. And he's one of those guys who people consistently underrate, but I understand why. He's one of those guys where pretty much in any fight you think there's an equal chance he could win OR lose.

He was a favorite against Daley and Diego and lost. And he was a dog against Paulo Thiago (big dog! WTF?), Story, Ellenberger and Alves (at least by fight time) and he won all of those.

So against Hendricks? Shit. Who knows?

[SPX]

Speaking of Diego, where the fuck did he go? I saw on Wiki that he apparently said in August that he was going back to lightweight but I haven't heard anything about any prospective opponents.

And speaking of fighters who say they're going to drop weight and then drop out of sight, I haven't heard anything lately about Guida either.

[poopoo333]

Tom Lawlor vs Francis Carmont: Before looking at this fight I thought I would end up leaning Lawlor...but after watching the vids I think this fight is going to be pretty competitive with the edge to Carmont. They are both decent all around with decent striking/grappling. Carmont does end up on his back a bit from what I have seen and Lawlor can get TDs of his own. Lawlor's boxing is fairly crisp as well, but I think Carmont will be able to handle it fine. None of these guys are great at one thing, but I think Carmont is going to edge out a decision here. Lawlor may be able to win round one by getting on top, but he tends to tire and Carmont hasn't shown any conditioning issues. In Carmont's last two fights, he ended up on his back and was in some pretty bad positions/subs, but in those last 2 fights, both opponents gassed after getting the upper hand and Carmont took over/got the finish. Lawlor is another guy with conditioning issues that can end up being a part of this trend. I do think Carmont's line will be steep, so I do not want to lay anything too heavy on him. Lawlor +250 or better might be worth a small bet because he can steal rounds with takedowns, but his gas tank is a huge factor. Ideally I would like Carmont to come out close to -200 and I'd like to parlay him with GSP. Lawlor's ability to steal rounds with takedowns of his own does worry me however.


Thoughts on this fight?

[edman5555]

In the shields fight kampmann kept dropping for guillotines when shields shot on him. I think that is why he was taken down so easily. He was winning the steiking exchanges in that too iirc.

[poopoo333]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

[poopoo333]

[edman5555]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

[edman5555]

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

After thinking about it for a bit, griggs does have big power. It is probably a no bet for me.

[poopoo333]

Although I will probably end up betting Griggs if the price is right....

why are we betting on this fight? These guys are bums.

[poopoo333]

A fighter I really want to bet on this card is Sam Stout.

[SPX]

Why? It's likely to be mostly a stand-up fight. Do you think Stout is that much better of a striker?

[mike]

Stout will probably go for tds lol

[SPX]

Despite getting killed by Hallman, Makdessi has actually shown some decent T3D. Lesser wrestlers were unable to get him down.

That doesn't mean that Stout can get him down but I wouldn't base Makdessi's takedown defense on one fight.

[poopoo333]

Sam Stout > Pat Audinwood in the takedown department. Kyle Watson too, although he didn't really go for TDs.

I'll just say this about this fight and it's just my opinion....Stout -175 would be a good deal.

[SPX]

Stout's got the experience and he's a better than average LW but I don't know about taking him at -175. I might take him at -135 or so.