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Thread: UFC on FX 5

  1. #41
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    • Travis Browne vs. Antonio Silva
    • Jake Ellenberger vs. Jay Hieron
    • John Dodson vs. Jussier Formiga -just a lean..need to really look at this
    • Josh Neer vs. Justin Edwards
    • Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens -fairly slight lean..would like to bet a possible decision prop
    • Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson-another slight lean
    • Dennis Hallman vs. Thiago Tavares
    • Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
    • Diego Nunes vs. Bart Palaszewski- gotta look at it
    • Phil Harris vs. Darren Uyenoyama
    • Mike Pierce vs. Aaron Simpson- this is going to be a -115/-115 type of deal...coin flip fight, very hard to call. decision prop..but it will be -300 or worse
    • Marcus LeVesseur vs. Carlo Prater- wut


  2. #42
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    For the record, I originally picked Browne to win and still think he probably wins...but starting to lean Bigfoot at current odds. I have a strong feeling I am overrating Browne and underrating Silva

  3. #43
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Maybe I think Bigfoot's better than he is, but I always go back to his fight with Werdum and his win over Fedor.

    I mean shit, if he can beat Fedor, surely he can beat Travis Browne. Right?
    I heart cock

  4. #44
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    I think the fight gets real interesting if Browne does not hurt Silva early. Browne has showed conditioning issues in the past (Kongo fight, Broughton fight). I also think that Kongo was able to clinch up with Browne and actually win the fight if there was no point deduction. Silva is a much bigger guy than Kongo and if he implements the same game plan I think he might possibly be able to make it look similar to the Arlovski fight. I will definitely be betting Silva +200...not sure which way the line is moving though.

  5. #45
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    I wish Sportsbook would go ahead and open the line up. I'd probably even bet Bigfoot at +150.
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  6. #46
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Travis Browne vs. Antonio Silva
    Jake Ellenberger vs. Jay Hieron
    John Dodson vs. Jussier Formiga
    Josh Neer vs. Justin Edwards
    Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens
    Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
    Dennis Hallman vs. Thiago Tavares
    Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
    Diego Nunes vs. Bart Palaszewski
    Phil Harris vs. Darren Uyenoyama
    Mike Pierce vs. Aaron Simpson
    Marcus LeVesseur vs. Carlo Prater

    - all guesses in the dark
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  7. #47
    Senior Member mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPX View Post
    Maybe I think Bigfoot's better than he is, but I always go back to his fight with Werdum and his win over Fedor.

    I mean shit, if he can beat Fedor, surely he can beat Travis Browne. Right?
    just from memory, i think he beat Fedor by taking Fedor down and gnp. I dont think he can take Browne down and probably not gonna outstrike Browne. Maybe Browne will gas and loses the later rounds but Im leaning Browne. No Bet for me though with that odds.

  8. #48
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Browne still hasn't beaten anyone who's really great. His best win is clearly Struve, who he just happened to hit with a sledge-hammer in the first round. No telling how that fight would've ended up if it had gone the distance.

    Also, as PP pointed out, Browne basically lost to Kongo.

    Now, I'm not saying that I EXPECT Bigfoot to win, but Bigfoot is definitely the more proven fighter here. I wouldn't be too shocked to see him outstrike Brown and I also wouldn't be shocked if he is in fact able to get Brown down in rounds 2 and 3.
    I heart cock

  9. #49
    Senior Member mike's Avatar
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    yeah if i would make a bet, its bigfoot or no bet. i've changed my betting strategy a bit, for the most part, only bet on fights i really like. if i feel a lil hesitant to place a bet, that's telling me that a no bet. its been working out pretty well for me.

  10. #50
    Senior Member edman5555's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike View Post
    yeah if i would make a bet, its bigfoot or no bet. i've changed my betting strategy a bit, for the most part, only bet on fights i really like. if i feel a lil hesitant to place a bet, that's telling me that a no bet. its been working out pretty well for me.
    Yeah its hard to bet instinct. The best thing you can do is post all your thoughts in their entirety and look to see what people have to say against them. If someone disproves a thought you have then you can base a decision of that. Just my opinion. Bouncing my opinions off others always seemed to work well for me.

  11. #51
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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  12. #52
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Edwards all motherfucking day at that line

  13. #53
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    surprised to see some of those lines. I though Roller/Volkmann and Simpson/Pierce would be even. MIght have to take the dogs there. I wanted to bet Darren Unem...ma. but to hell with -370.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  14. #54
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Edwards all motherfucking day at that line
    Agreed. That's a bet @ +260. Neer can be wrestled up.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  15. #55
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Just bet Bigfoot, Castillo and Bartimus.

    Pierce is too high.

    Simpson, Yves and Roller might be worth a look, but I'm staying away for now.
    I heart cock

  16. #56
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    And Simpson +170 in a near coinflip fight???

  17. #57
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Is it really a coin flip? Maybe it is.

    But I really kind of expect Pierce to beat him. Simpson's hands aren't THAT great and I don't think this size advantage y'all keep talking about (he was never a big middleweight) will give him much, if any, edge in the wrestling department.

    But I do agree that at those odds it's Simpson or nothing.
    I heart cock

  18. #58
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    I think it will be a clinch fest, the wrestling and striking are both about even IMO. I don't see why Pierce should be favored personally.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  19. #59
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    So you're betting Simpson?
    I heart cock

  20. #60
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Yeah probably.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

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