I will be on Phan for a good amount if he is around +150
I will be on Phan for a good amount if he is around +150
Actually I don't know because of the short notice...
he probably be +200
Probably so. Siver's odds will probably be pretty high . . . maybe too high to bet.
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If Phan is +200 I will probably lay a 5u bet on him.
How many units in your bankroll PP?
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I am liking Gustaffson over Shogun style wise. I think Shogun will have a tough time taking him down and will be at a distinct reach advantage standing. Gustaffson is a big tall lanky guy. Shogun seems like he isn't training super hard anymore. Maybe he will be in good shape for this one. Who knows.
Found this article:
http://www.mmaconvert.com/2012/08/25...ith-jon-jones/
Posted Augest 25th. Ruas manager claims he will start training for the Gustafsson fight in one week.
Daron Cruickshank is an NCAA division 3 wrestler fighting Henry Martinez. Henry's takedowns defense looked pretty good in the Riddle fight IIRC. I actually thought he was very close to getting the nod.
Swick Versus Brown. I think this one is pretty close. I would bet Swick should look better in this fight than in the Demarques fight just because he had been out for 2 years in that one. With that out of the way..Swick should be a little faster on the feet but aside from that I guess I see this is a close one.
Penn/Mcdonald: I guess my gut tells me Mcdonald will overpower him, take him down and beat him up GSP style. That said, BJ has quick hands and a great guard. Probably a no bet. I am interested to see how big BJ Penn is for this fight.
Diaz/Bendo: Too close to call. I am rooting for Diaz as I assume everyone else is. I fully expect Bendo to come out with a barrage of leg kicks and Diaz to try and box the hell out of him. I think Bendo can dictate where the fight takes place and has some solid BJJ defense.
Dennis Siver versus Nam Phan is in the announced bouts on Wikipedia: Siver all day.
Yves Edwards/John Cholish: Cholish is a wrestler that trains at Renzo Gracie. I guess wrestling + BJJ should allow him to take down Edwards and stay there relatively safe. Edwards is a crafty vet of many fights though. He tapped out Cody McKenzie if that means anything. Edwards is obviously the better striker. Tough to call.
Schaub/Johnson: Schaub can probably dominate if he takes Lavar down. If he can't take Lavar down I don't know what happens. Lavar hits like a mack truck. Schaub if the odds are good.
Joe Albert/Scott Jorgensen: I guess Jorgensen due to wrestling experience and total MMA experience. Albert almost beat Menjivar, just throwing that in.
Thats about all I have an opinion on right now. I haven't been watching many fights lately so I don't know much about a lot of these guys. I also did almost no research for this.
Is Cruickshank the TKD blackbelt that got KOd on TUF?
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I think you're thinking of Justin Lawrence from that same season?Originally Posted by SPX
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
Nah, man.
I'm pretty sure it's Cruickshank. I remember he went for a takedown and got kneed by some tall dude on the way in.
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you are right, he was KOed
I don't think Cruikshank goes for the takedown much. Pretty sure he will try to stand. I have no opinion on the fight though...
I think Swick is better everywhere assuming he is healthy, which is a big assumption. It makes it hard to bet him because of his health problems, but I don't think Brown does a single thing better than Swick.
Vert excited to see BJ back in action, but Rory is huge. I am not ruling a BJ win out, but you have to favor Rory here IMO. BJ can probably keep it standing though for at least a round. BJ doesn't really submit people with his guard, he tries to take the back. I don't know, I won't bet against BJ here and may even bet his if his +odds get good enough. But Rory is probably going to throw him around and lean on him a lot.
I am rooting for Bendo. I think Bendo will win too by taking him down and pounding on him.
agreed. Siver is a better striker IMO, and Phan can't take him down. And even if he did, it probably wouldn't help.
I will take Cholish via takedowns.
Schaub is going to sleep if he doesn't try for the TD quick. Even if he does, I don't know if his shot is good enough to get it without mixing it up a little first. No way I would bet the favorite here.
Pretty good card, will watch. Will bet.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Going big on Schaub if he is better than -125.
Agree with Scientist on Swick/Brown.
I like Phan at the implied big dog odds.
My brain tells me Bendo wins via leg kicks and TDs/standing up in Diaz's guard and getting ground and pound (Like Bendo did agaiinst Cerrone and what DHK did against Diaz)
I also agree on Swicks health. Schaub is risky due to Lavars power. I do think he is the better fighter though.
The Nam Phan bet I don't understand. Even at +200. He isn't a better striker than Siver or a better wrestler. He is probably better at BJJ but Siver is very hard to get down.
Schaub is not the type of guy to go big on. He gets KObto much. But as I dog I would vet him.
It's hard to bet on Schaub knowing that he can't take hard shots well. I would bet on a prop that says this fight doesn't go the distance before betting on either fighter. If Schaub comes out looking to take the fight to the ground I think Lavar loses easily. He has a very poor ground game for a ufc fighter. If Schaub comes to fight standing look for Schaub to be Lavar's highlight reel. This fight result actually all depends on how Schaub decides to fight.
Yeah not bet is probably the wisest course of action.
MAIN CARD (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)
- Champ Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz (for lightweight title)
- Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
- Rory MacDonald vs. B.J. Penn
- Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Lavar Johnson vs. Brendan Schaub
- Mike Chiesa vs. Marcus LeVesseur
- Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver
- Bryan Caraway vs. Mike Easton
- Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor
- John Cholish vs. Yves Edwards
- Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez
- John Albert vs. Scott Jorgensen
- Tim Means vs. Abel Trujillo
I'm being ballsy on Shogun and Penn, they will probably lose.
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