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Thread: UFC 151

  1. #21
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Jones via decision is +600?

    That's retarded.
    I heart cock

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPX View Post
    Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."
    I was referring to having missed weight and looking completely drawn out.

    A 36 year old wrestler is exactly the type of fighter who won't try to cut weight responsibly. Wrestlers love to push the envelope and father time just isn't on his side, he wasn't a small WW, I'm not sure maxing out at 155 is going to be to his benefit.

    Dropping a weight class this late into your career also outdoes a lot of the veteran knowledge he had built based on his experience. He'll have less strength now, it will adversely effect his cardio and he'll have to adjust to the typically faster and better gassed 155ers.

    I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.

  3. #23
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    ^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

    The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    I played Jones ITD straight, but I can hedge it a bit with Jones decision +600. I think Jones will be able to get Hendo down and work from there, not sure if he is going to just stand on the outside and strike (although if he did he would still win easy)
    100 year old Hendo's cardio has to be a concern for everyone, especially against someone who isn't going to stand in front of him.

    The ITD odds are terrible, but I can actually understand them.

    Jon was content to toy with Rashad and if he can can stay outside everyone's range as he continues to develop his striking, he may take a page from the Spider. Given the noddle arms and the odd chokes he can pull off with them, I'm also not convinced a shorter fighter like Dan would be wise to try to tie him up.

  5. #25
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    Depending on lines, what is everyone's thoughts?

    Is there anything that I've overlooked?
    You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

    Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    ^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

    The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi
    TRT has to be the biggest black eye on MMA no?

    I meant to mention that in what will likely be his attempt to max out. TRT helps with developing and maintaining muscle, I really expect Hallman to keep as much weight on as possible, it's really the only advantage a guy like him would have by jumping down.

    I really like your point though, North American MMA is built on "control." It's my biggest apprehension on the fight. However, I look to the Pellegrino and Griffin fights as my benchmark to Thiago's ability to negotiate some high level wrestling/grappling and he's really fared well.

    I feel I should disclose that I bet exclusively on the most likely result and more or less ignore the lines, I'm a parlay guy (unless it's a -700 like Jones lol). I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack) and the same again adding Saffadine (I was worried about bowling's one punch power)

    I'm really glad I was given the invite, you guys all seem to have some excellent insight and pay attention to the details.

  7. #27
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack)
    Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


    Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

    Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

    Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.
    I also really like the Siver matchup, it seems people have turned on him post Cerrone, but with a win he was a fight out of the title picture and was always going to be insanely undersized at 155.

    I think you meant Hallman, if so I agree that he has the grappling to neutralize Hallman (his jiu jitsu is overlooked as he's turned into a kick boxer of late) but I really think his conditioning will play a factor.

    I was never a Heiron fan, so I may be falling to some bias, but Jake just needs to find the chin (a suspect one in Jay no less) and you're in trouble. I will be holding my breath if it makes it to the third, but I also think Jake knows what he lost in the Hitman fight. A caged animal is the best bet in my opinion.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


    Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.
    Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

    I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)

  10. #30
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

    I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.

  11. #31
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Yeah I meant Hallman.

    I might be over-rating Hieron due to his wins in Bellator. But I agree with SPX that Hawn is pretty good, and would likely beat a lot of UFC WW's (though I actually think Hawn could have been given the Nod in that fight). Ellenberger is a beast though, and there is no real reason why Hieron should be able to beat him (unless he can do the same thing Kampmann did, which he probably can't.) It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.
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  12. #32
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?
    Depends on the person. Some people take a % of their bankroll and label it as their unit (for example, some people would use 2% of their bankroll as a unit), and some people just decide to use a certain amount of money as their unit. It is just easier to track. I think somebody has asked this before and Scientist gave a pretty good explanation.

  13. #33
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.

  14. #34
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

    I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)
    a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.

    Now my standard spiel on bankroll management: It is probably more important to your overall success long term than being able to pick winners. If you overbet your bankroll, you will be on the sidelines in no time. It feels great to win big chunks, but we all hit rough spots, and you will too. You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.

    Ok, off to ignore my own advice now.
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  15. #35
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    was that already out or did I just guess it?

    As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.
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  16. #36
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.
    2012: +19.33
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  17. #37
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    was that already out or did I just guess it?

    As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.
    It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.

  18. #38
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

    The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...
    2012: +19.33
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

    I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.
    Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

    Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

    He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.

    Jake has shown he's gunning to hurt you and will go full berserker if he smells blood. It will likely always be his undoing as you can't unlearn a killer instinct. I still think if he hurts Jay early that it may help wear down enough cardio that even in 3 rounds he still should have an edge.

  20. #40
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

    The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...
    I have been taking it a bit more seriously as well lately. Right now I have a browser opened up with every UFC until UFC 155 from UFC 151 and am in the process of looking at all the fights/breaking them down/typing shit on a word document. Also have ONE FC and the upcoming Bellator wikis up as well. I am almost done with 152. Then I will go to Bellator, 151, and ONE FC in that order.

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