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Thread: UFC 151

  1. #41
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  2. #42
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

    Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

    He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.
    See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

    And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver

  3. #43
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...
    I'm not gonna copy/paste but I plan on posting my little breakdowns on each fight.

    And you should do the work too, then we can see where we are missing things and stuff.

  4. #44
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Poopoo, that sounds like a lot of work. Why would you listen to anyone else right now anyway, youre on fire lately
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.
    .
    Awesome, thank you both.

    So I started with $50 and have been typically doing $5 at a time (I put $20 on my SF parlay this weekend because I was really sold). I'm close to $120 up after two events.

    The whole point for me in this was to really have some fun but also turn my obsession (MMA) into maybe some free money.

    I'm not always a favourites guy either. I already have a straight up bet on Belcher and got E. Silva and Hendricks at even for an upcoming parlay.

    I expect to take a few losses, but as I've held off this long on betting, I'm still steadfast in not letting lines get me. I also won't bet on fighters I'm a fan of.

  6. #46
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    got E. Silva
    Fuck you.



    Banned.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

    And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver
    I felt Siver was more effective through the fight, I was actually shocked at how many people disputed the fight. As per the earlier comment, unsuccessful grappling also really seems to effect judging negatively. I also liked that Siver seemed to be able to get back up without much trouble and stayed off the choke.

    Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.

    I know the weight cut hurt Kenny, but Siver was just as effective against Nunes. I really think he will make a splash at 145 before he inevitably gets crushed by Aldo or Mendes.

  8. #48
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    With that amount at stake, it is not that important... but it helps everyone else keep track of your actual handicapping ability, rather than focus on your lunch montey bankroll. It doesnt y matow you divide it, but helps us keep track of how your doing, so i can decide if i should just tail you instead of following my own losing instincts.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Fuck you.



    Banned.
    I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

    Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?

  10. #50
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

    Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?
    Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

    I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

  11. #51
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post

    Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.
    es.
    I dont think he is saying what you are saying... 30-28 means there was a 10-10 rd
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  12. #52
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

    I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.
    We generally run everyone off with our bad personalities. I was trying something new and just hoping zak's new recruits didnt read anything in ot or sny old thread
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

    I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.
    I feel included!

    I will just give my two cents.

    The Penn fight told me the new leaner Fitch (apparently doesn't cut much weight now) has lost the edge his complete lack of athleticism was hiding.

    Erick showed no issue with keeping Brennaman off and that guy can light up anyone on the feet. There's more than enough tape out there on Fitch at this point and Erick has gotten better with every fight. I also don't know how hungry a guy like Fitch can be knowing he will literally never get back to a title shot.

  14. #54
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Cleveland, how old are you?

  15. #55
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    25

  16. #56
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleveland View Post
    I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.
    I'm certainly not going to argue that Makdessi is any kind of great wrestler, but I really think this was a case of Hallman really bringing his A game. Makdessi's wrestling has been fine in all his other UFC fights. It's not like he has a history of getting taken down easily by just anyone.
    I heart cock

  17. #57
    Senior Member MMA_scientist's Avatar
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    I didn't realize Hieron already fought and beat Ellenberger. Poopoo... video. Make it happen.
    2012: +19.33
    2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

  18. #58
    MMA Moderator poopoo333's Avatar
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    Can't find the vid

  19. #59
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.
    That's the truth. It's been a while since I last had a really bad swing, but I can usually count on at least one a year. I remember I once went from something like 15u ahead to 15u in the hole for the year in like a month and a half. It was gay.



    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_scientist View Post
    I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.
    Fuck yeah! You can't find it online, though. But I do have it in a Word doc.

    Though this is easier:

    http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where...et-mma-now.mma
    I heart cock

  20. #60
    Senior Member SPX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poopoo333 View Post
    It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.
    Maybe I'll start doing breakdowns again. I stopped because no one seemed to give a shit. I wasn't going to waste my time if no one was going to respond.
    I heart cock

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