Strikeforce January 12th

[poopoo333]

After Marquardt's last performance and Saff's last two..I would probably say Marquardt opens -265 to -285 range

[SPX]

I don't think it will be that high. At least I hope not.

I'm actually not sure I'd take him above -200.

[poopoo333]

So I just watched some film and although I already figured this...Barnett and Cormier are locks. The guy Barnett is fighting sucks soooo bad.

[poopoo333]

Can we get some lines for this damn card? FUCK

[edman5555]

So I just watched some film and although I already figured this...Barnett and Cormier are locks. The guy Barnett is fighting sucks soooo bad.

What about the guy Cormier is fighting. He's fought mostly cans but has beaten an handful of guys with decent records. I guess Corm should kill him but I do think Cormiers hype is through the roof. A bit too much if you ask me. He may be the next ultimate badass but I think he probably has a way to go. I'm probably wrong about that. Either way they will both be insane favorites. Parlay for value.

[poopoo333]

Cormier will win. This is a squash match. Cormier has solid striking and amazing wrestling. He just manhandled Josh Barnett, how is he going to lose to some journeyman?

I plan on betting:

Roger Gracie, Josh Barnett, Daniel Cormier parlay.

Tim Kennedy/Jacare parlay.

Nate Marquardt straight if it's -275 or better.

[edman5555]

I think Souza over Herman is probably a good idea. Herman isn't that bad though.

Kyle/Mousasi we talked about already. Tough one to call because Kyle is dangerous and Gay guy is somewhat flaky.

I just glanced over Adriano Martins record and he looks pretty good. He is fighting Jorge Gurgel. Martins beat Ronnys Torres in 2010. He lost a majority dec to that Trinaldo guy with the nasty standup IIRC that fought Tibau. I guess this would be more of a bet against Gurgel than anything. I really know nothing about either fighter.

Payan has a better looking record than Bravo..

I don't know what to expect from Conor Huen and Coutures son. Coutures son dominated Conor Huen in the grappling department and Huen was almost able to outgrapple Noons for the decision win. That said, Noons is the best striker Couture has ever had to deal with and he has decent takedown defense. Who knows what happens.

I think Marqy marquardt will beat Saff but I don't really know. They both have great takedown defense and good striking. I think the power edge on the feet has to go to Marquardt. Saff might be able to outpoint him and keep it standing, who knows maybe get the knockout. Marquardts only been knocked out once in over 40 fights though. I don't know, Saff generally looks the same in all the fights I have seen.. Defends the takedown and outpoints his opponent. He does look good everytime though and he gets the "W".

Gracie will probably tap that guy out. He got headbutt KO'd by Lawal and he's already beaten Keith Jardine. I know beating Jardine isn't amazing but it was only his sixth fight ever. Two of those six fights were in 2006 and 2008. He didn't really compete consistently until 2010. Starting in 2010 thats 4 fights and a win over Jardine. I know, he isn't really that great.

[edman5555]

I was just looking over Mike Kyles record and his tko wins are over guys with somewhat shitty records with the exception of one tko win over Cavalcante. I read the pbp of that fight and here is an excerpt from it: Feijao is visibly winded and looks like he is out of shape. He is flat footed and gets clobbered with a big right hand. He falls to his back and Kyle pounces on him. That is Kyles best win via tko.

His other tko wins have records such as: 0 and 2, 6 and 4, 6 and 10, and lastly 0 and 2 again. He seems like he is pretty decent and has some power and explosiveness in his hands. Dangerous combo of course.

Gegard has never been knocked out in MMA over the course of 37 fights, and 8 kickboxing matches. Seems like a pretty solid bet to me. See what the odds are.

[edman5555]

Trevor Smith is fighting Tim Kennedy. He looks like he is pretty good at subbing people. 9 wins by submission. The last guy he fought was a black belt in BJJ and he choked him out. I guess if Souza couldnt tap him out this guy wont but ya never know.

[edman5555]

I have a feeling the odds for this thing are going to be super shitty.

[edman5555]

One thing I love about Strikeforce is they have a much smaller roster so there are a lot more mismatches. This makes it so much easier to pick.

Edman^

[edman5555]

Got some more info on Adriano Martins BJJ background:

2x World Champion (2003 blue, 2004 open weight – purple)
Dumau Cup Champion (2008)
World Cup Silver Medallist (2005 light weights absolute – brown – CBJJO)
World Bronze Medallist (2006 black)
Dumau Cup Bronze Medallist (2008 open weight)

[SPX]

Noons/Couture is interesting. Couture has kind of been exceeding expectations and Noons looked like SHIT against Thomson.

I think that one largely comes down to whether or not Noons really shows up. If he does, and he can keep it on the feet and work his boxing, he should win. But a Couture upset really would not shock me.

[SPX]

As for the Gurgel fight, I'm staying far away from that shit. Maybe take Adriano if he's like +175 or better, but I don't think that's going to happen.

But Gurgel might just come out and win handily. Or he might get his ass kicked. Either seems about as likely.

[edman5555]

Noons/Couture is interesting. Couture has kind of been exceeding expectations and Noons looked like SHIT against Thomson.

I think that one largely comes down to whether or not Noons really shows up. If he does, and he can keep it on the feet and work his boxing, he should win. But a Couture upset really would not shock me.

Yeah Couture has definetly done that. Noons is also up and down. It is a tough call.

[edman5555]

As for the Gurgel fight, I'm staying far away from that shit. Maybe take Adriano if he's like +175 or better, but I don't think that's going to happen.

But Gurgel might just come out and win handily. Or he might get his ass kicked. Either seems about as likely.

I havent seen many Gurgel fights but he doesn't seem to fare all that well. He also has never knocked anyone out which leads me to believe he lacks power in his hands. On top of that he is a BJJ guy and he has only submitted one guy since 2005.

[edman5555]

He is also pushing 35.

[poopoo333]

I agree with both of SPX's last two posts. However, Gurgel probably couldn't beat Kyle Maynard "handily".

[SPX]

Gurgel has great BJJ creds, but he rarely works his grappling in fights. He usually just stands and bangs and the result is usually him losing a decision. But with that said, most of the guys he's lost too are solid (but not top tier) fighters. And he does have a few wins in SF so it's not like he never wins a fight.

From the info I've got though, it's either a dog bet on Adriano or nothing. Or I guess maybe a dog bet on Gurgel if he opens as a healthy dog, which could happen, I guess. I suspect this fight's gonna be a pick 'em though and at even-ish odds I'll just stay away from the shit.

[SPX]

I agree with both of SPX's last two posts. However, Gurgel probably couldn't beat Kyle Maynard "handily".

Hey, he subbed Billy Vaughan in 44 secs.

Then again Billy Vaughan is 11-14 according to Fight Finder.