Ben Burns' NFC BEST BET O/U GAME OF WEEK! *7-1 YESTERDAY!* (NFL Totals = 29-13 YTD!) *CAR/PHILLY*
I'm playing on Carolina and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. Not exactly this season's best Monday night matchup but I feel there's solid value with the total. As you're surely aware, the Eagles are a mess. A team that once had Super Bowl aspirations now sits at 3-7, losers of six straight. I personally don't think the Eagles are going to roll over here - and this is a chance for them to show that on National TV. However, I still don't see them scoring many points. Remember, the offense has Foles at QB and is without LeSean McCoy. Rather, I see it as an opportunity for their maligned defense to step up with a big effort. Foles, who is working behind a banged-up offensive line, threw 46 passes last game, completing just 21. He finished with only 204 yards, getting picked off on each of the Eagles' first two possessions. After Foles got sacked four times, the Eagles have now been sacked 33 times. That was the third worst mark in the league, entering this week's action. I don't think Reid wants to be throwing the ball nearly as often this week. Even with the loss of McCoy, I expect to see a real effort to establish the run. After all, throwin 46 times amounted to only six points last week. In many cases, long-term statistics and tendencies don't have much relevance, as coaches and players change so quickly. Stats about a team from 3-5 years ago tend to come from a team that's completely different than the present day team. That's true of the Eagles, personnel wise. Like all teams, they've had a lot of player turnover over the years. However, Philadelphia is a little different in that Reid has been around for such a long time. While he's not going to be here much longer, with him having been on the sidelines here for so long, in my opinion, some of the longer-term stats start to take on a little more relevance. That said, note that Reid and the Eagles have long had a history of playing lower-scoring games against bad teams. In fact, the UNDER is 75-42 the last 117 (9-6 L15) times that Philadelphia faced a team with a losing record. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 79-58-2 when the Eagles were off a game vs. a divisional opponent, as they are here. The UNDER is also 69-38-4 when the Panthers are off a divisional game but I would argue that's less relevant due to the fact that the Panthers have a different coach now than they did in the past. Speaking of the Carolina coach, I like the fact that Ron Rivera was once Andy Reid's linebackers coach. He should have a little extra motivation for a strong defensive effort from his team. The Panthers last couple of games have snuck over the total, barely. (Last week's game landed right near the number and it was low-scoring until late in the game, plus points were scored in OT.) No thanks to Carolina's offense though. The Panthers have scored 22 or fewer points in six straight games, averaging 18.4 on the season. The Eagles have been even worse; they've averaging 16.2. Given those type of offensive numbers, one would expect an O/U line of about 37, perhaps even less, in some cases. We're getting more than that here and I feel that's generous. *10 NFC Best Bet
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