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Thread: Wild Card Weekend

  1. #1
    Senior Member Chico1856's Avatar
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    Wild Card Weekend

    NFL YTD
    Preseason 14-9 (+4.75)
    Reg Season 24-21-1 (+2.55)



    The Indianapolis Colts have been amazing this year, turning around last seasons last place team, and winning 11 games this season behind #1 Pick Andrew Luck, and the emotions of playing strong for Head Coach Chuck Pagano. Emotions can carry a team quite a distance, especially thru the regular season., Now the Colts must travel to Baltimore this weekend, and this is the playoffs. They have to play a Ravens team that was a play away from the Super Bowl last year, A Baltimore team that knows their window is closing. A city that will be saying goodbye to their most beloved player, Ray Lewis, and that is not fond of the Colt franchise as a whole. Emotions will be high on both sides, and the Colts may find themselves in a position of trying to match their opponents energy.

    For the Ravens, they are an experienced playoff team, that knows how to prepare, and what to expect this weekend. They were able to rest several players in last weeks game, that they approached essentially as a bye week, while the Colts played a great game against the Texans, putting them in a historically tough spot, as Wild Card teams on the road off a division game, as a dog of 3 or more points, are just 4-30 SU, and 9-25 ATS.

    The Ravens should be able to put up points against a Colts team that surrendered 5.14 yards a rush (31st in NFL) and ranks 22nd in defensive passer rating, allowing qb's an average rating of 90.07. Defensively the Ravens rank 8th against the rush, allowing 3.99 yards a carry, and 11th in defensive passer rating, and have the leagues #2 Red Zone defense.

    The Colts had some success this year, but should find it a bit more difficult in Lucks first road playoff game, in what should be an electric stadium, and the Ravens experience, and edge in the trenches should be more than enough to let Baltimore get the win and cover here.

    Baltimore Ravens -6.5
    “It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”

  2. #2
    Senior Member Chico1856's Avatar
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    Looking at 1st Half as well

    Colts avg 11.8 points per game on offense (pretty even home vs away), but on defense allow 16ppg in the first half on the road, compared to just 10.6 at home.

    Ravens much better at home, scoring 15.1 in the first half at home vs 9.4 on the road, while on defense are pretty even allowing just 10.8
    “It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”

  3. #3
    215 Hustler Mr. IWS's Avatar
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    GL man, Im gonna start looking tomorrow at the games.

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  4. #4
    Senior Member Chico1856's Avatar
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    The Bengals are rolling coming into Saturdays game in Houston, but looking a little deeper into just who they defeated, may taint the picture just a bit. In their 9 games since the bye week, they have gone 7-2 SU, however they only played 2 teams that made the postseason over that span, losing to Denver, and beating Baltimore last week in a game that the Ravens treated as a bye week, resting several key starters.

    The Texans are entering the playoffs losing 3 of their last 4 games, not what you would call reassuring for a team entering the playoffs, but recall that Houston was in a similar situation last year facing the Bengals in this round, losers of 3 of 4, and without several key starters, including their starting QB, Matt Schaub.

    In this game where both teams feature inexperienced playoff QB's, the game very well could rest on the haunches of the fat guys, and the Texans have the edge in the trenches. While both teams have great Defensive Lines, (Houston ranks 3rd in DHI, Cinci ranks 4th), the Texans have a sizable edge on the offensive line, (12th in OHI to the Bengals 28th), and the Bengals have struggled behind that Offensive line all year to convert on 3rd downs, (27th in the league on 3rd down conversions), and struggled to protect their QB (26th in sacks allowed) and face off on Saturday against the leagues 3rd ranked team stopping conversions on 3rd down, and 5th in sacks per game.

    I like my chances backing the Texans to bounce back and play up to earlier season form, and do a better job controlling the clock (#1 in Time of Possession) and protecting their QB (8th in sacks allowed/game), and advance to the next round with a cover against the number.

    Houston -4 (-115) buying a half point
    “It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”

  5. #5
    215 Hustler Mr. IWS's Avatar
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    With ya on Houston my man, Best of luck.
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Chico1856's Avatar
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    NFL YTD
    Preseason 14-9 (+4.75)
    Reg Season 24-21-1 (+2.55)
    Playoffs 2-0
    “It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”

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