NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Divisional Round
by Jason Logan
Each week we take a look at some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL in order to find hidden betting value. Here are four mismatches you may not have considered when capping the NFL Divisional Round:
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)
Ravens’ passive possession vs. Broncos’ ball hogging
Baltimore ranks among the worst teams in time of possession, holding on to the football an average of 27:43 per game. Those numbers took a tumble last week versus Indianapolis. The Colts ran the ball down the Ravens’ throats and limited Baltimore to just 22:28 TOP.
Denver finished among the top six in TOP, holding on to the ball an average of 31:16. The Broncos have been especially stingy in recent outings, posting an average TOP of 36:34 in their last three games – the highest in the NFL during that span. Much of that has to do with the emergence of RB Knowshon Moreno.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5)
Packers’ pass pressure vs. Colin Kaepernick’s playoff jitters
Green Bay will be turning up the pressure with young QB Colin Kaepernick taking his first postseason snaps. The Packers ranked fourth in sacks with 47 and will look to attack the edges with their tricky blitz packages in order to contain the Niners’ dual-threat.
Over the past three games - versus Arizona, Seattle and New England – Kaepernick has been heavily pressured and has completed just 55.3 percent of his passes. He’s also had a tough time hanging on to the ball with nine fumbles on the year – tied for eighth most in the league.
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Divisional Round
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of this weekend’s playoff action.
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)
Peyton Manning guided the Broncos to 11 consecutive victories to close out the regular season. Among those wins was a dominating 34-17 rout of the Ravens in Baltimore less than a month ago - a game Denver led 31-3 after three quarters. It was Manning's ninth straight victory over the Ravens. Baltimore allowed Denver to control the clock for more than 38 minutes in the first matchup. The Broncos have scored at least 30 points nine times and posted seven double-digit victories during its winning streak. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last four overall.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5)
The 49ers went 6-1-1 at Candlestick Park and beat Green Bay 30-22 at Lambeau Field in Week 1. The focus this week will be on Aaron Rodgers facing a San Francisco defense that has held opposing passers to 200.2 yards - fourth-best in the NFL - and finished second in the league in scoring defense. The Niners’ stop unit has surrendered an average of 13.9 points in eight home games. San Francisco RB Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards on 16 carries against the Packers in Week 1, but has not reached 100 on the ground in any of the last nine contests. The over is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last eight games.
NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Round's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy
We enjoyed a 2-1-1 Wild Card Weekend at the NFL Prop Shop, successfully building on a 3-1 Week 17 card.
Now our focus shifts to the Divisional Round, where three of the four matchups are rematches from the regular season. Here are four prop picks to consider.
Most Rushing Yards
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
This one essentially boils down to having more faith in the Broncos defense than the Ravens. When playing from behind on the road, we've seen the Ravens abandon the running game time and time again under the guidance of head coach John Harbaugh. Who's to say that doesn't happen again Saturday?
Knowshon Moreno quietly carried the ball at least 20 times in five of the Broncos’ last six games. He was limited to only 15 carries in Week 17 against the Chiefs, only due to the lopsided nature of that game. He'll find plenty of room to run against an aging Ravens front seven and will be given a heavy workload with Willis McGahee still sidelined.
Take: Moreno
Arian Foster (Houston Texans) vs. Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots)
It's no secret that the Texans will need a big game from Arian Foster if they're to pull off a shocker in Foxboro Sunday. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to rekindle past playoff magic against an underrated Patriots run defense that allows just 3.9 yards per rush.
Stevan Ridley doesn't get a lot of fanfare but the fact is he ran for nearly 1,300 yards during the regular season. He gained 72 yards on only 18 carries against the Texans in December and should the Pats build a lead, he'll likely get at least 20 touches.
Take: Ridley
Most Pass Receptions
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
We're getting tremendous value with Vernon Davis in this matchup, largely due to the fact that he was held to just one reception in each of the 49ers’ final four regular season games. Let's not forget that Jermichael Finley also saw an inconsistent workload during the regular season and comes into this one dealing with a hamstring injury.
Davis really stepped up in the postseason last year and while I certainly don't expect him to reach those heights again, I do believe he's worth a shot matched up against another hit-or-miss tight end.
Take: Davis
Most Sacks
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Russell Wilson may be the more mobile quarterback but Matt Ryan was only sacked 10 times over the Falcons’ last eight games and I expect the Falcons offensive line to hold its own once again Sunday. The Seahawks will be without one of their best pass rushers in Chris Clemons too.
Atlanta will have all hands on deck. It may surprise you to find out that Wilson has been sacked a whopping 11 times in the Seahawks’ last two games. Inside a loud Georgia Dome, the Falcons defensive front could have a field day.
Take: Atlanta
Prediction Machine:
Paul's Pick: Denver -9 vs. Baltimore (Covers 58.0%)
In 2011 (after the 2010 season – aka when we went 11-0 ATS in the NFL playoffs), the lines on the Divisional round games we published were 2.5, 3, 8.5 and 10.5. Our against-the-spread picks for that week included +2.5 (Green Bay over Atlanta), -3 (Pittsburgh over Baltimore), +8.5 (New York to cover over New England) and -10.5 (Chicago over Seattle), with one upset pick (Packers at Falcons), one blowout (Bears overwhelming the Seahawks) and one much closer than expected game (the Jets, which had lost at New England, 45-3, in their most recent previous meeting, over the Patriots). Three of the four ATS picks for the week were normal+ picks (greater than 57% confidence to cover). The only ATS pick that was not normal or better was Pittsburgh -3. Green Bay won at Atlanta, 48-21. Pittsburgh scored a touchdown with 1:33 remaining in the game to take out Baltimore, 31-24. New York overcame New England to win outright 28-21. And Chicago got out to a 28-0 lead to ultimately hold on and win 35-24.
In 2013 (after the 2012 season – aka this year), the lines on the Divisional games are currently 2.5, 3, 9 and 9.5. We are picking +2.5 (Seattle over Atlanta), -3 (San Francisco over Green Bay), -9 (Denver to overwhelm Baltimore) and +9.5 (Houston, which lost, 42-14, at New England in the teams' most recent meeting, over the Patriots). We have one upset (Seahawks over Falcons), one blowout (Broncos over Ravens) and one much closer than expected (Texans covering against the Patriots). Three of the four ATS picks are normal+ picks, with the lone "light” play on San Francisco -3.
Technically, what happened in 2011 has very little to do with these projections, but I find those similarities incredibly interesting and eerie – especially with the Atlanta and New England connections. Let’s hope it’s a good sign.
For this game specifically, I was hoping that Baltimore's 15 point win at home over the Indianapolis Colts, coupled with Ray Lewis' mystique and Peyton Manning's perceived cold weather issues would deflate this line (to make it even more exploitable, though it is at -8.5 in some places). As it stands, the gap between Baltimore and Indianapolis on the field is actually closer than the gap between Denver and Baltimore. According to our NFL Power Rankings, which take into account strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency statistics to play every team against every other team in the league 50,000 times, Denver is the best team in the NFL. Manning has improved throughout the season as he learns how to get the most out of his offensive weapons, while the defense has been better than the offense. The Broncos passing offense ranks as the second most efficient in the league (most efficient of the remaining playoff teams), while the pass defense is sixth overall and the run defense first (which is the exact opposite of the 32nd ranked Colts' defense that Baltimore faced last week). There is little - not even Lewis' motivation or the 12 degree wind chills at kickoff - to suggest that this game should be close.
Denver is 13-3 straight-up and 11-4-1 against-the-spread versus the league's 29th toughest NFL schedule in 2012. Critics like to point to Denver's 2-3 SU record against playoff teams. While that is a valid criticism of the Broncos' seasonal value, it is not all that relevant to what we see out of this team now. All three of those losses came in the first five weeks of the season - the first five games that Manning had played in over a year. Despite early turnovers in each loss - which can be somewhat attributed to bad luck and rust - the Broncos were in each of those games in the fourth quarter (and two of them were on the road). Since then, Denver has won 11 straight games (9-1-1 ATS in that span) with seven double digit wins, blowout wins on the road over playoff teams in Cincinnati and Baltimore and an average margin of victory of 31.5-15.9. Denver has won nine total games by double digits on the year.
Baltimore's win and story last week were commendable, but this game has the strong potential to look very different - more as the obvious and necessary culmination to a storied career for Lewis and the figurative end to the Ravens' previously intimidating defense. The Ravens are now 11-6 SU and 7-9-1 ATS against the 22nd ranked NFL schedule. Baltimore finished the season ranked just 12th overall in our NFL Power Rankings and as having just the 25th ranked defense (even with Lewis back). Last week, Baltimore took advantage of a team that was lucky and ill-prepared to be there. Denver looks much different. Baltimore's pass rush was almost exactly average this season, while the team was below average in rush efficiency. Also - and this does have an impact in our numbers - more so than the cold, the elevation could impact this game, which is a legitimate issue for a team like Baltimore that has not played in Denver since 2006, is dealing with far more injuries than the Broncos and whose main defensive contributors - like Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed - are almost all in their thirties.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Denver wins over Baltimore 78.7% of the time and by an average score of 28.0-16.5. As nine point favorites that win by double digits in the most likely scenario, Denver covers the spread 58% of the time, which would warrant a $59 play from a normal $50 player. The total (46) is appropriate and unplayable.
Paul's Pick: San Francisco -3 vs. Green Bay (Covers 54.6%)
This pick is immediately notable to me for several reasons: 1) it is the first time in the history of PredictionMachine.com that we are picking against the Green Bay Packers to win outright in the NFL Playoffs (it had to happen sometime - and I'll take 5-1 SU and ATS in previous Green Bay picks), 2) largely due to the fact that it falls right on a key number, it is our least valuable pick of the week (there is about a 6% chance of a push as well - which we consider), 3) the winner will become our most likely NFC champion and may even be our most likely Super Bowl champion leading into next week and 4) the most notable injury news related to any game this weekend occurs in San Francisco (and the final result can only help our pick).
While the first three points are straight-forward, I'll address the fourth. Justin Smith is a very, very good 3-4 defensive lineman. While J.J. Watt clearly had the better 2012, one could make the argument that Smith has been similarly valuable to Watt for several seasons. Smith has a partially torn triceps. Though he has been practicing in full all week thus far, speculation (though it may be more discussed now, given what happened with Robert Griffin III last week) is that he will be removed from the game if he cannot perform near his normal level. Smith means about 1.5 points to this line our projections. Knowing this and learning from last week's weak pick on the Bengals despite the Chris Crocker uncertainty (who ultimately did not play and it mattered), we have erred on the side of caution and removed him from this game entirely. We also assume the worst - that David Akers is too hampered by injuries to be more effective than Billy Cundiff - at kicker for San Francisco and that Jordy Nelson - who has missed recent practices for the Packers - is actually 100% right now. This way, though the pick is weak, the only news (surrounding those players and known injuries at least) that changes from our assumptions can actually benefit the ATS pick.
Green Bay is 12-5 SU and 9-7-1 ATS against the eighth ranked NFL schedule in 2012-13. The Packers finished the season as our fourth best overall team and as having a top ten pass offense and pass defense. However, the Packers allow their opponents to rush for 0.8 more yards-per-carry than they gain on the ground. In general, that would be bad and ranks sixth worst in the league. Against San Francisco, which runs the ball the third highest percentage in the league (50.8% - incidentally, Green Bay may have to beat the top three most run-oriented teams in the league to get to the Super Bowl) and out-gains its opponents by 1.4 yards-per-carry, that's really bad news for the Packers. This deficiency was certainly evident in three games against the Vikings as well as losses at Seattle and at home in Week 1 against these 49ers. In football, passing still beats running, but a team like San Francisco (and Seattle though unlike Minnesota without Christian Ponder) that can run, stop the run, effectively exploit play action and not hurt itself with turnovers can give the passing team a very difficult time (especially at home).
San Francisco is 11-4-1 SU and 9-6-1 ATS versus the fourth ranked schedule. The 49ers finished the year ranked second in our NFL Power Rankings (though technically, they would be third right now - after Denver and Seattle). Not only were they second overall, San Francisco finished in the top ten in all our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, including pass offense (tenth), run offense (second), pass defense (fourth) and run defense (third). With Aaron Rodgers on the field, Green Bay can be a little more explosive vertically, but San Francisco still has the better team, the more disciplined team, the fewest weaknesses, home field advantage and a bye week to deal with those aforementioned injuries (a luxury Green Bay did not have and it may ultimately cost the Packers).
In 50,000 games played of Green Bay at San Francisco, the 49ers win outright over the Packers 61.6% of the time and by an average score of 26.6-21.7. As three point favorites, the 49ers cover the spread 54.6% of the time, which would justify a $23 wager from a normal $50 player. The OVER (45) covers 55.2% of the time to qualify as a "half-bet" play (specifically a $30 recommended wager).
NFL Playoff Odds Update
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player stats to play, one play at a time, the remaining NFL Playoffs bracket 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NFL Playoffs. The rest of the playoffs are played all the way through individually, with the team that wins each game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.
With a bye week in the Wild Card round and no real surprises (all of our favorites won last week) to-date in the playoffs, the Denver Broncos are still our favorites to win the Super Bowl, making the Super Bowl 50.2% of the time and bringing home the title 28.2% of the time. This suggests that Denver is a 56% favorite on average over its NFC opponent in the Super Bowl, which translates to just fewer than three points. Denver is followed by the AFC's second seed in the New England Patriots, which has the third best chance to win the Super Bowl overall (14.4%). The Patriots would be underdogs (by just 1.8 points) to San Francisco and favorites over every other team from the NFC in a potential Super Bowl. Denver or New England represents the AFC in the Super Bowl 77.5% of the time. Despite defeating Cincinnati at home last weekend, the Houston Texans are still a distant third in the AFC race. Houston makes the Super Bowl 14.8% of the time and wins it 7.4% (which puts the Texans at exactly 50/50 in the Super Bowl against the potential NFC opponent). The Baltimore Ravens played a memorable home game in an ultimately lopsided contest with Indianapolis last week. What was Ray Lewis' last home game, will likely also be his final game. Baltimore only makes the Super Bowl 7.7% of the time and wins it 3.6% of the time. The Ravens have the lowest remaining chance to win it all and are the only team not to be favored in at least one potential Super Bowl matchup. The Broncos win the Super Bowl more than the bottom four remaining teams - Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta and Green Bay - combined. In general, the AFC is 53.6% likely to win the Super Bowl, but only the Broncos and Patriots would be favored to win over the average expected NFC Super Bowl participant.
The San Francisco 49ers still evaluate as the most likely NFC Super Bowl participant and winner, but the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers both closed the gap considerably after winning in Wild Card week. The 49ers are 35.4% likely to make the Super Bowl and 17.5% likely to win it. Seattle is one the best teams in the league right now (they would be second behind Denver in updated NFL Power Rankings of the remaining playoff teams). Though they would have to go on the road for their next two wins (including a 1 pm ET/10 am PT game in Atlanta this Sunday), the Seahawks are still 28.3% likely to make the Super Bowl and 14.2% likely to win it. That makes Seattle the only NFC team that wins more than 50% of its potential Super Bowls. Green Bay, which is undoubtedly rooting for Seattle to win at Atlanta this weekend so the Packers can get the NFC Championship game at home (if they win at San Francisco on Saturday), is 20.5% likely to make the Super Bowl and 9.2% likely to win it. Both the Packers and Seahawks saw increases in over 4% in their chances to win the Super Bowl from what we anticipated going into last week. Despite having home field advantage through the NFC Championship game, the Atlanta Falcons are the least likely NFC team to make it to the Super Bowl and only Baltimore is less likely of all the remaining teams to win the title. This week's biggest game appears to be the Packers @ 49ers. Even with the strength of Seattle, the Green Bay/San Francisco winner would be the definitive favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and may even become the top team overall in Super Bowl winning chances (especially if Seattle and/or Denver lose). In total, with three teams remaining that have never won a Super Bowl championship - Houston, Seattle and Atlanta - there is a 27.1% chance that a team wins its first ever title.
Interesting Super Bowl matchups and their relative likelihood include: Most Likely - Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers occurs 17.8%; Top Seeds - Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons occurs 7.9%; All-Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers occurs 2.7%; Biggest Projected Margin (9.0 points) - Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers is also the All-Harbaugh matchup; Former MVP Quarterbacks - Denver Broncos or New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers occurs 15.9%; No Franchise Rings - Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons or Seattle Seahawks occurs 6.5%; Least Likely - Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens occurs 609 of 50,000 times.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Point Spread - Pick
Baltimore Ravens (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Saturday, January 12th, 2013, 4:30 p.m. EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colo.
TV: CBS
by Badger, Football Handicapper.
Point Spread: Bal +9/Den -9
Over/Under Total: 45.5
With an AFC Wild Card victory already in hand the Baltimore Ravens now will attempt to go on the road to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to take on Peyton Manning and the red hot Denver Broncos in an AFC Divisional Round playoff game Saturday on CBS.
Baltimore secured their date in Denver Saturday afternoon with a, 24-9, victory over the Indianapolis Colts in the opening round Sunday. Middle Linebacker Ray Lewis came back to lead an inspired Ravens defensive effort that bent a lot, but didn't break, and Joe Flacco and the offense went back to their ground-n-pound running attack to get past the Colts and punch their ticket to the second round.
But now it gets difficult, as they will take on Manning and the Broncos who are riding an 11-game win streak that propelled them to the AFC West title and all the way to the top seed and homefield throughout the AFC playoffs.
Saturday's AFC Divisional playoff tilt will also be a rematch of week 15 action that saw the Broncos go into M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore and lay a, 34-17, whoopin' on the Ravens. Don't be fooled, the Broncos victory over the Ravens back in December was even more lopsided than the score shows, as they led 31-3 midway through the third quarter before taking their foot of the pedal.
With the Broncos rested and red hot, and playing at home in the upper atmosphere of Mile High, it should be no surprise that Denver opened as 9-point favorites. With the large point spread still less than 24 hours old, most of the early money has come in on the underdog Ravens, but ironically the sportsbooks that have moved off the opening number have actually gone up to either minus -9.5 or even -10.
The over/under total opened at 45.5 and has held there after the early steam at most books, but the few that have moved the number have gone up to 46 to bring the push back into play.
Offensively it will be interesting to see how much the week off will affect the Broncos and Manning, since they finished the regular season pretty much hitting on all cylinders averaging nearly 400 yards (398 - 4th in NFL) and over 30 points (30.1 - 2nd)) per game. Denver scored an average of 36 points in their final three games, starting with the 34 they put on the Ravens the last time they met in week 15, so the bye week may end up cooling them off as opposed to gaining any advantage with the week watching.
Also, it's not like the Broncos needed to rest anyone during the bye. Other than the natural bumps and bruises following a 16-game campaign, the Broncos are healthy with just return man Trindon Holliday (ankle - questionable) and extra defensive back Tracy Porter (concussions - out) on the injury list out of the players that contributed to the Broncos 13-win season (not including the players already on I-R).
Manning and the Broncos will be playing against a different Ravens defense then the last time they met though, as Lewis returned to his linebacker spot to put all of the Ravens big-name defenders on the field all at once for the first time all season. The Ravens did give up an alarming 419 yards to the Colts last week, and they also "allowed" Indy to hold almost a full 15-minute time advantage on the Ravens offense, but they did hold the Colts to just three field goals. Those two trends could prove fatal against the Broncos however, unless the Ravens defense can find a way to get off the field on third down (allowed Colts 45%, 9-of-20).
The Ravens rediscovered their roots on offense last week with 172 yards on an impressive 32 carries (5.3 ypc). But before anyone anoints O-Coordinator Jim Caldwell as the savior and the Raven run attack as being back, a deeper look at their offensive numbers paints a slightly less rosy picture.
First, a majority of those running yards came from backup running back Bernard Pierce (13 carries for 103), and Pierce came up huge in place of Ray Rice who put the ball on the ground twice with two drive-killing fumbles and ended up the game clearly in the Ravens doghouse. Those yards also came against the Colts, the team that entered the game as the 29th-ranked run defense in the league, a far, far cry from what they'll face this week against the Broncos and the 3rd-ranked unit in the NFL (91 ypg allowed).
In fact, the Denver defense has been overshadowed by Manning all season long but they deserve as much credit for the No. 1 seed as anybody. LB Von Miller (18.5 sacks) and DE Elvis Dumervil are one of the best, if not thee best pass-rushing duos in the game right now, and when combined with veterans Keith Brooking, Wesley Woodyard and Champ Bailey in the back-half the Broncos were the quietest 2nd-ranked defense the NFL has probably ever fielded (291 ypg; 4th in scoring at 18.1 ppg).
Prior to the Broncos victory in week 15, the Ravens had actually enjoyed a mini two-game win streak SU over Denver (31-17 in 2009, 30-7 in 2010). However, Baltimore hasn't won a game in Denver since a, 20-13, win at Mile High in 2001, going 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in games played in Denver in the head-to-head series.
As far as betting trends are concerned, the home team (5-2 ATS in L7) and the favorite (4-0 ATS in L4) have enjoyed this series in recent history. Overall Baltimore is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, but the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home playoff games whereas the Ravens are a draining 1-5 ATS in their last six AFC Divisional playoff games.
The over/under trends are a toss up, as just about every Ravens trend points to an under wager (5-1 in L6 playoff games, 4-1 in L5 Divisional games) while every Broncos trends points to the over (5-1 in L6 playoff games, 8-3-1 in their 12 AFC games this season).
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game kind of reminds me of the BCS National Championship game. We've got a well respected team showing up as a huge, along with huge public backing. And then reality sets in and the better teams blows them out.
I like Denver to win and cover convincingly.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Point Spread - Pick
Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (11-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Saturday, January 12, 8:00 p.m. EST
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA
TV: FOX
by Vesper Abadon, Football Handicapper.
Point Spread: GB +3/SF -3
Over/Under Total: 45
In a football game between two synonymous teams, it's customary that whichever team is playing at home will automatically be labeled a -3 favorite. As it happens, that's what the San Francisco 49ers are against the Green Bay Packers in this weekend's NFC Divisional Playoff match. In other words, the game is so close that the only reason the 49ers are the favorites is because they're playing at home.
The last time these two teams met was way back in Week 1 when the 49ers walked away with a 30-22 win over the Pack, but of course that was with quarterback Alex Smith manning the helm. Now, thanks to a controversial mid-season change by head coach Jim Harbaugh, Colin Kaepernick is the 49ers' man. "He's got a good grasp of the game plan so far," Harbaugh said of Kaepernick earlier this week. "I'm excited that he's ... it's a bit savant-like, you know, the way he's handling it so far this week. So that's really encouraging."
Harbaugh is obviously high on his QB, whom he believes has big-play potential. In the regular season, Kaepernick went 136 of 218 for 1,814 yards and 10 touchdowns; not only that, he bolstered the run game by rushing 63 times for 415 yards (6.6) average and five scores. That's an even better average than the 49ers' leading rusher, Frank Gore, who has carried 258 times for 1,214 (4.7) and eight touchdowns. It's no wonder the 49ers had the fourth-best rushing offense in the league this year with an average of 155.7 yards per game (YPG).
Despite thriving on the ground, the 49ers have struggled at times through the air. Kaepernick has put up respectable numbers, but the team still only averages 206.1 passing YPG-good for 23rd in the NFL. Their leading receiver is Michael Crabtree, who has 85 receptions for 1,105 yards (13 Avg) and 9 touchdowns, while tight end Vernon Davis has 41 catches for 548 yards (13.4) and five touchdowns. Not bad but not great either.
Despite the wishy-washy pass game, the 49ers actually have a vigorous offense that never gives up. What's more, they have a fantastic defense, which is ranked 2nd in the league allowing an average of just 294.4 total YPG. That's quite a bit better than the Packers, who allow 336.8 YPG (good for 11th in the NFL).
Speaking of the Pack, they don't have the benefit of a first-round bye like the 49ers. Instead, they're fresh off a 24-10 win at home against the division rival Minnesota Vikings, who were without QB Christian Ponder. On a side note: Anyone else think the Packers might have eased up in their Week 17 match against the Vikings to keep the Chicago Bears out of the Playoffs?
In that game, reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers went 23 of 33 for 274 yards and a touchdown. Not superb, but in line with his fantastic season where he finished with an NFL-best 108 rating after going 371 of 552 for 4,295 yards, 39 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. While the Packers have a non-existent run game-their leading rusher is Alex Green who has carried 135 times for 464 yards (3.4 Avg)-he's got plenty of aerial options to choose from.
That includes Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley. Jennings had the biggest game last week against the Vikings by catching four passes for 61 yards, but Rodgers managed to spread the ball out to ten different receivers. Surprisingly, only one pass went to Cobb, who is the team's leading regular-season receiver with 80 catches for 954 yards (11.9 Avg) and eight touchdowns.
Vesper Abadon's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Packers are on a roll. In the last 11 games of the regular season, they went 9-2 as Rodgers completed 66.5% of his passes for 29 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Even more impressive is the fact he did it without a run game to open things up. Teams know Rodgers is going to throw and they still can't stop him.
With that said, you can't underestimate the 49ers. They already beat the Packers this season (albeit before their current heater) and played well enough to secure a first-round bye. That means they've had an extra week to rest and prepare for their opponents. Apparently Kaepernick's ready to go, and I think he'll be the difference maker in this game.
Rodgers and company will have a dogfight on their hands against the 49ers' staunch defense, but they'll still put up points. It'll be up to Kaepernick to harness some of that big-play potential if the 49ers are going to do the same. If he does and brings his "A" game, the 49ers could very well find themselves in the NFC Championship game for the second year in a row.
I'm betting the 49ers minus the points in what should be one of the more entertaining games of this NFL Postseason.
Pointwise
BALTIMORE (11-6) at DENVER (13-3)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 4:30 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: DENVER BY 9 -- O/U: 45½
Broncos return to the site of last year's shocking OT upset of the Steelers. Hugeshift from Tebow to Manning, & despite Tim's brilliance, Peyton has few peers atthis position. Try 37/11, ranking only behind Rodgers among NFL QBs, & leadingDenver to season-ending 11 straight wins (31.5 ppg) & 9-2 ATS: only misses by 1& 2½ pts. Broncs also own NFL's 2nd ranked "D", behind likes of Miller, Dumervil,etc. Ravens regrouped nicely vs Indy, after finishing on 1-3 (SU/ATS) slide, althothey were stung for 25 FDs & 419 yds. Denver has 33-16 ppg home edge, & tookBaltimore by 17 (away) just 3 wks back. Flacco, Rice, Boldin, & mates not enough.
RATING: 4: DENVER 34 - Baltimore 17
GREEN BAY (12-5) at SAN FRANCISCO (11-4-1)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 8:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 3 -- O/U: 45
Similar to 3 of the 4 Divisional Playoff games this week, these 2 powers meet forthe 2nd time this season, the 1st coming in the season opener, when the Ninerspulled the 30-22 upset, behind the running of Gore (112 yds), & the passing ofSmith (20-of-26 & 2/0). However, he now sits behind the "do-everything" QBing ofKaepernick, so the Pack will have to solve that problem. GB is just 5-6 ATS vsnon-division foes, while SF is 8-2, with a 25-14 ppg edge at home (86-33 pt edgelast 3). Rodgers again carries Packer load (#1 ranked QB: 40/8), but note a mere2-yd edge in win over Minny. The 'Bay as a FG dog is tempting, but this a SF play.
RATING: 6: SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Green Bay 24
Playbook Marc Lawrence
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
DENVER over Baltimore by 11
Death, taxes and a Manning in the postseason! For the 11th straight year, a Manning has graced an NFL playoff picture and this year it appears Peyton is the cover boy as his Broncos are the Vegas favorite (+300) to win it all. And if you’re going to ride Denver all the way to New Orleans, you may as well throw a few bucks on this superfecta: (1) the Broncos are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in this series when the Ravens arrive off a SU win, (2) Denver is 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS at home in the playoffs, including 4-0 SU and ATS versus a foe off a double-digit SU win, (3) HC John Fox is 6-1 ATS in the postseason against less than .800 opposition and 5-0 ATS versus a foe off a double-digit SU win, and (4) Manning, himself, is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in his career against the Ravens, including 8-0 SU and ATS since 2004. Even worse for Baltimore backers is the fact that teams in Game Two of the playoffs off one-home-win-exact fall into a nasty 3-28 SU and 6-24-1 ATS scenario since 1980. However, before backing those trends, you’ll have to buck these: since 2000, the Ravens are a comfortable 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS on the postseason road, including 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS versus non-division opposition while the Broncos are just 1-3 SU, ATS and ‘ITS’ versus fellow playoff teams this season. Nonetheless, we’ll look for Denver’s 2nd-ranked defense – and the highest in the playoffs with Pittsburgh out – to sack (led league with +31 net sacks) a quarterback (Joe Flacco) who is 1-4 SU and ATS in the postseason versus .700 or greater opposition and shut down a team who may arrive short on emotion following last week’s Ray Lewis sendoff. Thus, we say lay it, play it… and don’t forget to pay the taxes.
SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay by 3
The Pack is back on Saturday night but this time they won’t have the luxury of Lambeau Field, or Joe Webb for that matter. That’s not to say that they can’t walk out of Candlestick Park with a win – even though they fall into that same ugly 3-28 SU angle that may ground the Ravens. Sure, the Niners fi t the same bill that benefi ted Green Bay last week, namely home teams in their opening playoff game after being bounced as a favorite the previous season (these teams are now 34-19 ATS). And, yes, Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in his NFL coaching career versus .667 or greater opposition, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. However, do you really expect Colin Kaepernick to be able to go toe-to-toe in a quarterback battle with Aaron Rodgers? We don’t, not when Rodgers is 3-0 SU and ATS in the postseason versus .700 or greater foes and 11-5 ATS in his career as a dog, including 7-1 ATS when taking 2.5 or more points versus less than 1.000 opposition. However, if you’re convinced Kaepernick can hold his own in his NFL playoff debut, then you’re looking to expect some of that ‘Montana magic’ to hit Candlestick as the Niners would improve to 19-6 SU in this building in postseason play since 1982. But if you like living in Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood, then you feel the Pack will add to their 13-1 SU record in their last 14 games with revenge. It’s a tough call so we’ll need a bit more time to ‘double-check’ our numbers. We don’t want to entirely ‘discount’ this battle by the bay, but with the Packers still a bit banged up as of this writing, we’ll pass for now.
Powersweep
Divisional Round
BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-6)
DENVER BRONCOS (13-3)
DEN came into BAL and pummeled them 34-17 as a 3 pt AD winning our NFL GOY easily. BAL didn't earn its initial FD until there was 8:00 left in the 1H. BAL was outgained 300-146 when DEN went up 31-3 midway thru the 3Q.
DEN holds a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS record at home TY where their +158 ypg edge is the best in the NFL (+0 TO's) for a 33-16 avg score. BAL went 4-4 SU/3-4-1 ATS on the road TY being outgained by 37 ypg (+5 TO's) w/an avg scoring defi cit of 21-18. The common NDIV foes here are HOU/NE with BAL going 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS and DEN going 0-2 SU/ATS but that was before Manning was fully settled in. It must be noted that Manning has avg'd 298 ypg (68%) w/a 22-3 ratio at home TY while Flacco has avg'd 203 ypg (57%) w/a 7-5 ratio on the road.
2012 was supposed to be the yr that Flacco, in a contract yr, broke out but the off had become quite predictable and Rice wasn't being utilized to his fullest (2 100 yd gms vs 6 LY). Flacco has a solid 15-5 ratio (8.3 ypa) at home but just 7-5 ratio (5.9 ypa) on the road. Rice does have a solid amount of rec's but that's coming off checkdowns.
Boldin remains a solid #2 type w/Smith being a dangerous deep threat. BAL likes to use the 2 TE sets but they are much more conservative than NE's in scheme. The OL is above avg (#20 sks, 4.7 ypc) which is a disappointment w/the talent.
2002 was the last time BAL wasn't in the top 10 for D for ydg but they remain top 10 in ypp. Inj's have hit every level here but they should have 9 of 11 opening day st'rs (CB Webb/LB McClain) here. The fact they have only given up a 14-13 ratio shows their quality of depth. BAL has our #1 ST's unit thanks to Jones work comb w/a great yr by Koch.
Despite missing a year it can be argued that '12 was Manning's best ever. Working w/a new roster/coaches/hybrid scheme, his +26 ratio was 2nd only to 2004 which he bested in att, comp, comp % and yards. With Manning at the helm, Decker and Thomas became the 1st tandem of 1,000 yd rec's s/'04. Stokely has been a reliable 3rd Dn option while Dreesen and Tamme have excelled working in similar styles at IND/HOU. Over the fi nal 6 games which Moreno started DEN has the #11 rush off and as a team they outgained foes by 150 ypg (+2 TO's) which is an NFL best.
Including the '07 Colts, this is the best/deepest D Manning has had. While labeled an OLB, Miller rushes on over 70% of his snaps and is one of the best all around LB's in the league. Many of DEN's 52 sks (#1) are the result of their top 5 secondary which has allowed 203 ypg (54%) w/an 11-8 ratio over the L8 games once they settled into Del Rio's system. They are the only defense to not give up a 300 yd passing game TY (PIT/NYJ 1) with only 3 games over 100 yds rushing. DEN also has our #5 spec teams unit w/top 10 coverage units and Colquitt's net avg is the 3rd best TY.
Manning is now 8-0 SU/ATS vs the Ravens avg 243 ypg (64%) w/a 16-5 ratio. BAL beat the weakest of the playoff teams at home LW w/a big emotional lift w/the return of Ray Lewis. Still, they gave up 25 FD's and 419 yds to a rookie dome QB in his 1st playoff game. BAL is healthier than the 1st meeting but off an emotion packed game and now on the road with altitude a letdown is in order. How many nights has an inj'd Manning thought about this moment?
RATING 3: BRONCOS by 17
GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-5)
SAN FRAN 49ers (11-4-1)
The 49ers pulled an opening week upset beating GB 30-22 as a 5 pt AD. SF quickly shut down GB's attempt at a run game (45 yds, 3.2) and by forcing them to be one-dimensional they were able to bottle up the passing game. 107 of Rodgers 303 yds came midway thru the 4Q after GB was down 30-15. Six of GB's 1st 7 drives ended in punts.
SF went 6-1-1 SU/4-4 ATS at home TY with a +105 ypg (#2) and +4 TO's mark for a 25-14 avg score. GB went 4-4 SU/ATS on the road for +15 ypg (+3 TO's) but a 25-24.5 avg score. Rodgers has logged 281ypg (67%) w/a 22-3 ratio on the road TY however. Including playoffs, Green Bay is 18-7 ATS as a dog.
After a slow start Rodgers has dominated the passing game again fi nishing w/less than 10 int in 3 of the L4Y (11 in 2010). The only bad thing that can be said about the Packers off is that the run game is once again very limited. Part is due to Rodgers (8 100+ QBR's TY), part is due to design (often just an extra pass blk'r) and part is due to injury (Benson IR foot).
Even though GB lacks a 1,000 yd receiver TY this is still a top 3 unit in depth/talent. GB's biggest weakness on offense is the OL which has had 4 diff OL combo's the fi nal 7 gms. Despite being one of the most beat up def's GB's #11 rank is a sign of depth and the fact they've only played 1 team w/a top 10 off in the L10 gms (DET).
Raji is the cornerstone of the DL, Matthews for LB's but GB is also quite deep in the secondary. The fact they allow 4.5 ypc is due to 2 strong gms by Peterson and inj's up front. They are better than their #11 pass def rankings (#4 def QBR) as they allow just 55% comp w/a 6.7 ypa (7th). GB has our #16 spec tms unit thanks to Randall Cobb on returns.
Prior to Kaepernick SF avg'd 366 ypg/215 ypg pass/23.7 ppg. Since he took over it's 356 ypg/230 ypg pass/26.3 ppg but he is much more aggressive with the ball as SF uses more of the Pistol off. Gore has quietly logged his 2nd str year of 1,200 yds rush thanks to the best OL in the NFL TY giving up 1 sk every 16 pass att's w/Kaepernick vs 1 every 8.4 w/Smith. Crabtree has fi nally taken to being a #1 WR here and is the 1st WR w/1,000 yds rec s/'03 while Davis has admitted he's not as comfortable w/a new QB at the helm. Losing Manningham (knee) creates an unknown as it's a ? to how much gas Moss has left. SF's OL is one of 3 to start every game together TY (MIN/NYJ).
SF's D ret'd all 11 st'rs from LY's #4 unit and they didn't miss a start until Justin Smith tore a tricep. He is thekey cog in the system setting up the majority of Aldon Smith's 19.5 sks to a stop unit that all'd 91 ypg (3.6) rush w/him in the lineup. The 49ers also have the best LB unit in the NFL w/Aldon, Willis and Bowman locked up longterm.
They own the #5 pass D and their 6.1 ypa is 2nd best. SF has our #10 ST's TY despite Akers struggles. While SF did catch GB by surprise in the 1st matchup the Packers were focused on installing a run game all preseason (and most of Sept) to the detriment of the offense. This time around GB is healthier (DE Justin Smith, Manningham IR), knows what they are in for and have a big experience edge with Rodgers over Kaepernick.
SF is a very formidable foe esp w/its OL but giving GB points easily makes this a strong play here.
RATING 4: PACKERS by 7
Nelly's Green Sheet
NFL DIVISONAL GAMES
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12, 2013
DENVER (-9) Baltimore (45½) 3:30 PM
The Ravens did not dominate in the box score but they did emerge with the
largest margin of victory in the wild card round. John Harbaugh and his team
have won at least one playoff game in five straight seasons but they have not
made a Super Bowl. Baltimore is coming off high emotion last week with Ray
Lewis in his last home game and the Ravens also face a difficult Sunday-to-
Saturday short week, with teams in that situation going 1-4 S/U and ATS the last
three years in the divisional round. Statistically the Broncos look like one of the
NFL’s best teams and the Broncos are riding an 11-game win streak. Peyton
Manning had a MVP-type season and while he gets flak for his playoff history his
career record is 9-10 including 6-4 in home games though this is the first time
around in Denver. The Broncos went just 2-3 against playoff teams this season,
going 6-0 against a very weak AFC West but the Broncos soundly won in
Baltimore in mid-December. Denver had an interception return touchdown early
in that game and a huge edge on the ground in a 34-17 win that was not even
that close as the Ravens scored both touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Historically
the Broncos have struggled in the home favorite role but Denver has been able
to shake some of those negative trends this season though the Ravens are a
playoff tested underdog. Joe Flacco completed just 12 passes last week as he
has not been sharp down the stretch with the Ravens battling through a very
difficult late season schedule. The Ravens have been a suspect performer all
season despite a strong record and the short week appears to be a big
disadvantage at this stage. Both teams were solid ‘over’ teams on the year and
neither defense is likely as good as most have perceived. The ‘over’ was 10-5-1
in Denver games and 9-7 in Ravens games.
BRONCOS BY 13
RATING 2: Denver (-) over Baltimore
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ Baltimore at Denver
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) Green Bay (45) 7:00 PM
Statistically San Francisco has been the best team in the NFL in terms of yards-
per-play differential. San Francisco did not have as dominant of a regular season
however, in part to having a lesser turnover differential. Some of that may be in
part due to the radical move to shift to second year quarterback Colin
Kaepernick, who started the final seven games of the season. With his size, arm
strength, and mobility Kaepernick has a very high ceiling but he also completed
less than 58 percent of his passes in his final three regular season games. He
only threw three interceptions in 218 attempts however as this is still a 49ers
offense that takes great care of the ball. Special teams woes were an issue for
the 49ers in the playoffs last season and again have been an area of concern
down the stretch as well but the 49ers do possess an incredibly physical defense
that had some of the best performances of the season. Green Bay won with
relative ease last week as the rematch with the Vikings lost some luster with
Christian Ponder being a late scratch. Questionable play-calling from the Vikings
likely prevented a much closer game but the Green Bay offense was very
efficient. The Packers have some of the worst rushing numbers in the NFL on
both sides of the ball but the Green Bay defense had very solid late season
numbers, contrary to last season. The Packers have allowed 20 or fewer points
in nine of the last 11 games and with the Green Bay offense back at full strength
that generally is more than enough to win with. These teams opened the season
in a highly anticipated game that turned out to be a laugher as San Francisco
won with ease but a lot has changed for both squads since that time. The 49ers
have a great track record under Jim Harbaugh at home but the Packers have
been great performers in the road underdog role as well. Both defenses should
be up for the challenge this week and this could be a lower scoring game as it is
unlikely to come close to the 52 points scored in the opener.
PACKERS BY 3
RATING 1: Green Bay (+) over San Francisco
RATING 2: ‘UNDER’ Green Bay at San Francisco
Spartan
NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR!
3* Green Bay Packers
goodfella
2* teaser Broncos and Patriots (7 pt)
Jimmy Boyd
3* Baltimore Ravens +9
3* Green Bay Packers +3
DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - DIVISIONAL ROUND
7-UNIT SUPER-HYDRAS
BRONCOS -9.5 vs ravens (Saturday - 1:30pm)
PACKERS +3 (-115) at 49'ers (Saturday - 5pm)
SEAHAWKS +3 (-125) at falcons (Sunday - 10am)
TEXANS +10 (-120) at patriots (Sunday - 1:30pm)
Today's NFL Picks
Green Bay at San Francisco
The Packers look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road playoff games. Green Bay is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Niners favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (1/8)Game 109-110: Baltimore at Denver (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.360; Denver 147.000
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); UnderGame 111-112: Green Bay at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.948; San Francisco 141.937
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over
DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index
Divisional Round Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 155-92 (.628)
ATS: 122-132 (.480)
ATS Vary Units: 504-701 (.418)
Over/Under: 124-131 (.486)
Over/Under Vary Units: 423-414 (.505)
Saturday, January 12, 2013
AFC Divisional Round
DENVER 28, Baltimore 17
NFC Divisional Round
SAN FRANCISCO 25, Green Bay 23
Hoopsgooroo
109 Ravens +10 @ 4:30p
111 Packers +3 @ 8p
Strike Point Sports
7-Unit Play. Take #110 Denver (-9.5) over Baltimore (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)
Baltimore is going to have an emotional let down. There is no other way to look at it. The Ravens were riding on cloud nine heading in to their matchup with Indianapolis as it was Ray Lewis' last home game in front of the Baltimore fans. Even with all that extra motivation the Ravens didn't play that well. I know that Ray Rice had two costly fumbles, but if the Colts wide receivers had made a few more catches that game could have been quite interesting.
Denver has been an absolute machine this season and that includes a drubbing of the Ravens earlier in the year, in Baltimore no less. The Broncos and their fans will be as excited as can be welcoming in Baltimore to the thin air. The Broncos balanced offense will keep the Ravens pass rush at bay and it will also keep the secondary guessing. Look for Peyton Manning to be at his best in this Saturday contest.
Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS in their last six Divisional Playoff Games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. win. The Broncos meanwhile are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
This could be Peyton Mannings best team. This Broncos team is balanced and efficient. Defensively they are solid at stopping both the run and the pass and offensively they can score points with the best of them. I just don't see how Baltimore can keep pace on either side of the ball. Their defense isn't good enough to control Manning and his cohorts and offensively they just can't make enough plays to beat the Broncos in Denver. Lay the big line in this one.
3-Unit Play. Take #111 Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)
The playoffs are all about elite quarterbacks and their is no way Colin Kapernick is beating Aaron Rodgers. I know that San Francisco is an outstanding home squad but they were last season as well and when an elite quarterback came to town they couldn't get the job done. Yes, they made mistakes to cost them the game, but that is what the NFL is all about. This game is going to be the exact reason why San Francisco should have never gone away from Alex Smith.
Green Bay is slowly getting healthy and each week that they continue to play their injured players get better and better. I love the three points in this one, but when it comes down to it I don't see them being necessary. I see the Packers winning this game outright. Colin Kapernick is just not the type of QB that I want under center with our playoff lives on the line.
If you are a stats guy try these on for size; Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games, 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus a team with a winning record, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus the NFC, 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home playoff games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games overall. Take the road dog in this one.
DOC SPORTS
4 Unit Play.#109 Take Baltimore Ravens +10 over Denver Broncos (Saturday, 4:30 pm CBS)The Broncos have been on a roll, but the Ravens have the players on both sides of the football that will be able to take this game down to the wire. These two teams met late in the regular season, and it was all Denver. And that is why this line is so high. Expect the Ravens to learn from that poor showing and play much better in this game. Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road playoff games. Denver is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. Baltimore took New England to the wire last year, and expect them to do the same on Saturday against another high-powered offense.
Denver by 3
4 Unit Play.#112 Take San Francisco 49ers -3 over Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8 pm FOX)This is a game that features a better all-around team in San Francisco against a team with a better quarterback in Green Bay. We will side with the better all-around team, and expect the 49ers to complete the season sweep of the Green Bay Packers. San Francisco dominated the first meeting between these two squads in a game that was not a close as the final score would indicate. Green Bay is getting a little healthier, but I just do not expect all of their injured players over the last two months to be at full strength. The Packers got a gift last week when Christian Ponder was ruled out and all they had to worry about was Joe Webb. That will not be the case on Saturday, as Colin Kaepernick is healthy and has the ability to beat teams with his arms or his legs. San Francisco is 14-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 home games.
San Francisco by 10
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