1-28-13

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Louisville
W. Virginia
Raptors

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Portland St. +2 over Eastern Washington

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB KANSAS at W VIRGINIA

Play Against - A home team (W VIRGINIA) terrible shooting team (<=40.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )
11-6 this year. ( 64.7% 4.4 units )

CBB PORTLAND ST at E WASHINGTON

Play Against - A favorite vs. the money line (E WASHINGTON) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two bad teams (20% to 40%)
19-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.3% 21.3 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% -3.0 units )

CBB DELAWARE at DREXEL

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG differential.), after a win by 10 points or more
175-102 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.2% 62.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA HOUSTON at UTAH

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

NBA MEMPHIS at PHILADELPHIA

Play On - Any team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%)
60-14 since 1997. ( 81.1% 34.8 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 1.0 units )

NBA SACRAMENTO at WASHINGTON

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.0 units )

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Pacers at Nuggets: What Bettors Need to Know

Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets (-5.5, 194.5)

The Denver Nuggets are expected to be one of the NBA's most dangerous teams over the next ten days. That doesn't bode well for the Indiana Pacers, who wrap up a four-game road trip against a Nuggets team that has been devastating in its own arena. Denver improved to 17-3 at home with a 121-93 trouncing of the Sacramento Kings on Saturday. It was the first of a six-game homestand for Denver, which boasts the league's best rebounding totals and one of its highest-scoring offenses.

The Pacers have had defensive prowess on their side for most of the season, but it has abandoned them of late. Indiana has surrendered at least 100 points in back-to-back games after holding teams to double digits in its previous 12 contests. A fourth-quarter rally gave way to a listless overtime period last time out as the Pacers dropped a 114-110 decision to the Utah Jazz. It's the second of two meetings between the clubs this season, with Denver prevailing 92-89 in their first encounter Dec. 7.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Indiana, Altitude (Denver)

ABOUT THE PACERS (26-18): It's easy to see what Indiana coach Frank Vogel thinks his team needs to improve upon moving forward. "We have to tighten the screws on defense,'' he said following the loss to Utah. "We put 90 percent of our emphasis into riding the ship on the offensive end (Saturday). You reach a point where you realize you have to tighten the screws. It's tough to beat good teams in their buildings when you aren't tied together on defense.'' Even with an improved defensive effort, the Pacers will be in tough at the Pepsi Center, having dropped six of their last seven games there.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (27-18): Denver may not be able to match Indiana's defensive intensity, but it won't need to if it continues to score at will. The Nuggets have averaged nearly 116 points during their three-game winning streak to move into fourth in the league at 103.6 for the season. Two of the teams ahead of them - Oklahoma City and Houston - were outgunned by the Nuggets during the streak, which could continue to grow with Denver hosting the Pacers, Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls before hitting the road for four in a row beginning Feb. 9.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Denver.
* Over is 5-0 in Nuggets’ last five home games.
* Nuggets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Central foes.
* Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Nuggets have lost six games when leading after the third quarter, the second-most in the Western Conference.

2. Denver's 71 first-half points against Sacramento set a season high.

3. Indiana has allowed 100 or more points eight times, the fewest in the East.

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5Lines

Total Line
(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Memphis Grizzlies OVER 178
Cost: -110

Run Line
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Philadelphia 76ers+3.5
Cost: -110

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Jimmy Boyd
4* Houston Rockets/Utah Jazz OVER 207.5

3* Sacramento Kings +8
3* Delaware +5

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1unit wagers / Steven Kane

Jazz(-4.5)

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

7:00PM Pittsburgh vs Louisville
[719](KINGS RANSOM- 2 UNITS) Pittsburgh +6.5 -110

7:05PM Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
[51] OVER 5.5 +105

9:05PM Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz
[713] UNDER 207.5 -110

GOODFELLAS

7:00PM James Madison vs NC Wilmington
[718] NC Wilmington +2 -110

7:05PM Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
[51] Boston Bruins -121

9:05PM Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets
[712] Denver Nuggets -5.5 -110

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Gold Medal Club Selection 28/01/2013
CBB:
#718 NC- Wilmington +2

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the matrix 1/28

warriors/raptors under 202
kings/wizards over 201
rockets/jazz under 207

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Sports Cash System Free Pick for 1/28

West Virginia/ Kansas OVER 130 (Total Points Scored in Game) (NCAA College Basketball)

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won seven of last ten games (2-2 HF).
-- Brooklyn won its last seven home games (4-2-1 HF with PJ).
-- Bulls won six of last eight games (5-16 HF).
-- Nuggets won nine of last eleven games (12-7 HF).
-- Rockets won three of last four games (6-12-1 AU). Utah won seven of last nine games (9-6 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost six of last eight games (6-5 HF). Warriors lost four of last five on road (10-6-1 AU, 2-4 last six).
-- Kings lost last four games, all by 9+ points (8-11 AU).
-- Grizzlies are 4-5 in their last nine games (7-3-1 AF). Philly lost seven of last ten games (5-2 HU).
-- Orlando lost its last five games. (12-5-1 AU).
-- Bobcats are 0-6 vs spread in game after last six wins (9-11 AU).
-- Indiana lost six of last eight road games (5-12 AU).

Totals
-- Six of last eight Toronto games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Wizard games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 14-2-1 in last seventeen Orlando games.
-- Six of last eight Charlotte road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Indiana games stayed under the total; eight of last 10 Denver games went over.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Memphis is 5-2 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Orlando is 3-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.

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CBB

-- Drexel won four of last five games vs Delaware, winning last four here by 10-8-13-16 points; Dragons won last three games, allowing 52.3 ppg, after 5-11 start, but they've lost two of three CAA home games. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-9 vs spread. Delaware lost three games in row, by 3-4-14 points; they're 2-1 on CAA road, with favorites covering all three games. Blue Hens make just 28.6% behind arc.
-- James Madison won four of last six games vs NC-Wilmington; their win here LY was just their second in last seven visits here. Favorites are 7-1 vs spread in JMU's CAA games; Dukes are 1-3 as road underdogs, losing by 16-11-26 points. Seahawks won three of last four games; they won last two home games by 8-5 points. CAA home underdogs of 3 or less points are 0-5 vs spread.
-- Louisville lost its last three games, scoring 61 ppg, after its 16-1 start; Cardinals are 1-1-1 as Big East home favorite, winning by 18-26 points, losing to Syracuse. Pitt won its last four games, allowing 55.8 ppg; they grab 42% of their own missed shots (#4 in country). Panthers lost last three visits to Louisville, by 6-3-3 points. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-15 vs spread.

-- Kansas is 6-0 in Big X play, covering three of last four games, taking road wins by 14-5-4 points (1-2 as road favorite). West Virginia is 2-5 in last seven games, 1-2 at home in its first Big X season, losing home tilts by 1-10 points. WVU cannot shoot (29.2% from arc, 43.8% inside arc); their 43.8 eFG% is 312th in country; they're 0-8 vs teams in top 75. Big X home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread.
-- Marquette is 5-1 in Big East, with four wins by 7 or less points; they are 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-1-7-10 points. Eagles are 7-1 in last eight games vs USF, winning last three by 11-1-20 points. Bulls lost last four visits here, by 2-8-11-20. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 4-7 vs spread. USF is 1-2 as a Big East road dog, losing away games by 26-3-8 points.
-- Portland State won eight of its last nine games vs Eastern Washington, winning three of last four visits here. Eagles lost last four games overall, with last three all by 14+ points- they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 3-23 points (2-2). Vikings are 0-5 on Big Sky road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing by 3-7-17-9-13 points. Big Sky home favorites of 7 or less points are 15-6 against the spread.

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Paul Leiner

100* Warriors / Raptors Over 202

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Sports Cash System Play of the Day:


Pittsburgh +6 over Louisville (NCAA College Basketball)

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Ben Burns
nba: orlando +9

nba: over orlando 194

ncaab: pitts +6

nba: indiana +5.5

nhl: edmonton

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4-STAR UTAH -3.5 over Houston - The Rockets have finally righted their ship here but it still doesn't mean they are an elite team. They struggle against teams with size and that is what Utah specializes in.
Utah started its homestand Saturday night with over Indiana, 114-110 in overtime. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-2.3 ppg) since January 16, 2006 as a road dog after playing as a home favorite when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Utah prevailed in overtime after letting a double digit lead slip away in the second half. The Jazz are 14-0-1 ATS (8.7 ppg) since November 19, 2002 as a home favorite off a win of four points or fewer in which they held a double digit lead.
Those 114 points scored were 21 more than expected. The Jazz are 12-0-1 ATS (6.5 ppg) since April 18, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.
It allowed them to overcome 54% shooting from the Pacers. The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since March 05, 2008 as a home favorite after a home win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Utah's effort was led by Al Jefferson with 25 points. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since March 16, 2011 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Al Jefferson was the Jazz's high scorer.
Houston is starting a mini two-game road trip in this one with Denver on deck. The Rockets are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since January 25, 2010 before playing the Nuggets.
When these teams met in December, Houston won 124-116. That was after Utah took a lead into the fourth quarter. The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS (5.4 ppg) since March 26, 2005 as a home favorite when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: UTAH by 12
4-STAR Utah and Houston Over - Both teams have their offense in rhythm now and we saw what happened when these teams met earlier in the season and combined for 240 points. They won't reach that kind of number here but should still comfortably get over this total.
Houston is coming off a 119-106 win over Brooklyn Saturday. They scored 17 points more than expected in that win. The Rockets are 8-0 OU (22.8 ppg) since January 16, 2007 as a road dog with at least one day of rest when their DPS was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.
James Harden led their effort with 29 points in the win. The Rockets are 6-0 OU (15.8 ppg) since November 02, 2012 on the road with at least a day of rest after a win in which James Harden was the Rockets' high scorer.
Utah meanwhile is coming off a 114-110 overtime win against Indiana. The Rockets are 13-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since January 20, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest when their opponent is off an overtime game.
They allowed 19 points more than expected in that game. The Jazz are 7-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since January 26, 2007 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
One boost in that game was racking up 28 assists. The Jazz are 6-0 OU (16.7 ppg) since November 03, 2010 at home when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before.
The total in that game was just 183.5, meaning it is over 20 points higher here. The Jazz are 6-0 OU (23.7 ppg) since February 20, 1997 as a home favorite after playing at home when the total is at least twenty points higher than it was last game.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 219 points
4-STAR Golden State-1 over TORONTO - Golden State has been hurt the past two games by getting away from their defensive improvements which had really made a difference in their bottom line. With a Toronto squad which they match up well against we expect them to play better defense and a get a big night from Stephen Curry as the Raptors struggle against strong guard play.
Golden State has allowed 103 and 109 points in the past two games, both losses. The Warriors are 9-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since January 15, 2012 on the road when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.
In the 109-102 loss to Milwaukee Saturday, David Lee had a solid game with 12 points and 15 boards. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since March 05, 2012 on the road after a loss in which David Lee had a double double.
However, they were led by Stephen Curry with 26 points. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since April 20, 2012 on the road after a loss in which David Lee was not the Warriors' high scorer.
Toronto fell at home to Cleveland Saturday, 99-98. They led big much of that game and by nine entering the fourth quarter. The Raptors are 0-9 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since December 22, 2007 as a dog off a loss as a favorite in which they led by 10+ points. Also, the Raptors are 0-9 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since March 09, 2008 with at most one day of rest off a loss as a home favorite in which they led at the end of the third quarter.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Golden State 105, TORONTO 94
4-STAR Memphis -3 over PHILADLEPHIA - Memphis struggled last night on a team that is built around defending the post. The 76ers could not be any further from that right now. Memphis came out the day after Christmas and blew a home game against Philly already and we don't expect them to do that again.
Philly is the home dog here despite a 99-89 win in Memphis in December. The Seventysixers are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since January 26, 1996 as a home dog when facing a non-conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season.
Amazingly, Philly won that game despite just one point from Evan Turner in 40 minutes of action. The Seventysixers are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since February 15, 2012 as a dog after winning the previous matchup in which Evan Turner was not the Seventysixers' high scorer.
Philadelphia enters off a big home win, 97-80 over New York Saturday night. The Seventysixers are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 10, 1996 at home after a home win against the Knicks.
They won despite grabbing only four offensive rebounds in the game. The Seventysixers are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since January 17, 2011 at home after a game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.
Memphis fell last night to New Orleans, 91-83. Mike Conley left early and did not score a point in the game. The Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since November 06, 2010 on the road with no rest after a loss in which Mike Conley was not the Grizzlies' high scorer.
At the other guard spot, Tony Allen had a limited offensive role with nine points. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 20, 2010 with no rest after a loss in which Tony Allen scored fewer than 10 points.
Zach Randolph had 20 points and 13 rebounds as the high scorer in defeat. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since February 17, 2010 with no rest after a loss in which Zach Randolph had a double double. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Memphis 97, PHILADELPHIA 86

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Dallas at Columbus (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Columbus +110 (moneyline)
The Columbus Blue Jackets have yet to record a home win in three tries, but did win their opener in a shootout. They then faced Chicago and Detroit here, two very solid clubs, and now get a winnable game at home against Dallas. Dallas has to be a bit down after squandering leads in their last two games, only to fall victim in the end. The Stars have not been defending the back side of the ice in the early going as they have allowed a league worst 37 shots on goal per game. Sooner or later, that is going to come back and bite them. Going back to last year, the stars are now just 2-8 overall in their last ten games. Play on Columbus.

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ben burns

nba main event MAGIC