I am liking Chris Leben over Andrew Craig in this one. Also Mike Pierce over David Mitchell. Edgar over Oliveira, Siver over cub Swanson and Lamas over jung.
I am liking Chris Leben over Andrew Craig in this one. Also Mike Pierce over David Mitchell. Edgar over Oliveira, Siver over cub Swanson and Lamas over jung.
1 unit = 300 $
Hard to bet against Swanson right now. Dude is on fire. Edgar over Oliveira is going in Ludo's Locks.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311u
I agree about Swanson. I love Siver but he fights a lot of close fights and Swanson is on a roll.
I'm also not sure about Leben over Craig. Dudes, I am a big Leben fan. I'd love to see him win. But if the lackluster Leben who fought Brunson shows up Craig will probably take it.
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Leben had a year long layoff for the Brunson fight and he has always done poorly against wrestlers. I didn't see the fight or anything so though. Craigs wrestling is not anything special from what I remember. I figure if Leben looks good at the weigh ins he should be able to beat Craig by forcing a standup fight.
Swanson is good but so is Siver. Swanson has the edge in jiu jitsu but I think Sivers wrestling is good enough to keep it standing. Swanson has definitely knocked some people out standing but he seems to throw a lot of crazy looping punches. I am just basing that on what I saw on the poireir fight. Sivers kickboxing is pretty good. I like Siver at plus odds.
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You didn't see the Leben/Brunson fight? Oh, well you should watch it. Truly terrible performances from both guys, like some real hang your head in shame kind of shit.
As for Siver/Swanson, I have a feeling Silver will be the dog, but not sure how much of one. If shit gets out of control and I can get him at like +170 then I'd take him. But I doubt that will happen and it's too much of a toss up to bet if the odds are closer.
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Siver is +190
Oh, well shit. I guess I will be betting him after all.
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Siver was really good at 155. He seems like a beast at 145
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He certainly went into beast mode against Nam Phan. He straight brutalized that motherfucker.
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I believe poopoo was there live and he saw dennis siver straight up pull his pants down and fuck him in the ass.
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A point about craig. He is tough and has cent jiu jitsu but his record is one hell of a lucky one. He was just sbout knocked out against natal when he landed that hail mary kick. Kyle noke was kicking his ass before he blew his knee out. Ronny markes was his best performance, he showed some good takedown defense. He still lost though, and it was against a super gassed ronnmy markes comng off a one year layoff.Originally Posted by SPX
Im not saying leben is great or anything but his record is much better and i see him as a rough fiht for craig unless craig can take him down. Lebens takedown defense is not amazing but pretty decent. His chin power standi g should win him the fight. Craig has some power standing but i dont remember him having great technical ability. He came up in jui jitsu.
Leven stuffed brunson for one round. I assume this based on the score of the fight. That was coming off a one year layoff. Also supposedly he is off he alcohol and drugs. Supposedly is the key word there and its why i think it is prudent to wait until they weigh ins to see how he looks.
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News- chris leben moved to san diego and is training at alliance training center.
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I really like Pierce over Mitchell, Edgar over Oliveira, and would bet Siver (at dog odds) over Swanson.
How does Oliveira beat Edgar? I have a hard time seeing him with a way to win here. I just don't think Edgar's going to get caught.
I am glad your in agreement with me. I worry about Edgar because of Olivieras length and disregard for takedowns. He is very open in his standup and does pretty well with it. Frankie's standup is alright but he usually doesn't win rounds with it until 3-5 when his opponent slows down. I also worry about Oliviera's guard. It's not too crazy to think that he could catch a submission on Frankie. I doubt it will happen but it could. I feel like it is an assumption that Frankie's submission defense is amazing. How much time have we really seen him in peoples guards? When he fought BJ penn he didn't spend much time there and Bj was probably exhausted when he did. I know he trains at the Renzo Gracie academy and his willpower is well known. He's also never been submitted. Thats enough to give me a lot of confidence in him but in the back of my mind I am still wondering what Oliviera can pull off. Probably not much but Frankie is a five to one favorite and for me that would probably mean betting five units to win one unit.
On the other hand Frankie by decision is plus 145 right now. That seems pretty good to me. Frankie doesn't seem to go for submissions much and Olivieris sub defense is pretty good. He knocked out Bocek a long time ago and of course he tko'd Gray Maynard. I think Maynard was pretty fatigued at the time. This is a three round fight so Oliviera shouldn't reach that point. He also isn't as heavily muscled as Maynard either so he should be ok there. I am kinda liking this.
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I doubt Edgar will be dumb enough to try to work a takedown / top game against an opponent whose only way to win may be a submission.
I just don't think Oliveira's standup anywhere near the same level as Edgar's or even Maynard's. Maybe you have a point about the reach, though, and I admit I have overrated Edgar's striking a little in the past (really thought he would beat Bendo).
Anderson Silva Vs Chris Weidman:
I feel like I am missing something here. Weidman seems like is a very good fighter but this is still Anderson Silva here. The GOAT. Weidman is still green. I know he is a good wrestler and has good submission ability but is that really going to be enough? I think his standup is miles behind Anderson Silvas and that is going to be a major problem for him.
Going through his record:
Weidman vs Sakara: IIRC Weidman took this fight on short notice. He still looked mediocre in it. Sakars takedown defense is nothing special and all he did in this fight was take him down and maintain top control. Sakara tagged him standing during the fight. He beat Sakara 30-27 on all the judges scorecards. Sakaras UFC record is 6-7. One loss coming from DQ punches to the back of Cotes head.
Weidman vs Bongfeldt: He beat this guy impressively. He has a solid record as well. Good win.
Wiedman vs Lawlor: Another good win. Lawlor is not the best fighter though.
Weidman vs Maia: This one is a telling fight. It took place is January of 2012 so it was only 1.5 years ago. Maia was very sick during the fight. I know this for a fact because I watched an interview with him that took place before the fight. He was coughing and sniffling. It's not really debatable. Weidman took the fight on very short notice. Both guys gassed hard. The issue is that Maia was very close to beating him. Weidman had a lot of trouble trying to outstrike him and get inside. Had maia not gassed WORSE than Weidman did he probably would have won the fight.
Weidman vs Munoz: Munoz took this fight with a broken foot. I just read an interview with him where he stated that everytime Weidman shot a double on him he had to take the weight off his broken foot to defend it. Munoz was basically fighting on one foot. It's still a solid win where Weidman showed some impressive standup landing that elbow on munoz and dropping him but it still not really that amazing. He outstrike a shitty striker and took down a great wrestler that was operating with one leg.
Fast forward to Weidman Vs Andserson Silva:
Weidman has been out for an entire year. His standup is nowhere near the level of Andersons. If he can get him on the ground he may be able to submit him. Judging by the clever submissions he has executed on guys like Lawlor and Bongfeldt I imagine he must have this ability however it will obviously be tough to submit Anderson because he is a legitimate black belt in BJJ. I guess it's possible he could tko him with ground and pound but I am not really expecting it. This means that Weidman will probably have to take him down for five rounds straight or knock him out standing. I will be suprised if he can ko him standing as would anyone else be.
Onto him putting a five round wrestling clinic on Anderson. This has happened one time and that was Anderson Vs Chael 1. Andersons rib was broken during this fight. Or bruised. Or whatever. Either way, he did is succesfully.
After that, he couldn't replicate it. Anderson vs Chael 2 saw Chael control him on the ground for one round and then get demolished in round two. This was super Hulk Chael TRT that outwrestled Nate Marquardt, Yushin Okami, Brian Stann and Dan Miller.
In addition to that Anderson manhandled Yushin Okami. Okami did look a little hesitant to pull the trigger but he is a very good grappler in his own right. Probably close to the level of Weidman overall.
Then of course he destoryed Vitor Belfort and Stephan Bonnar in one round each.
Another thing to consider is this: Anderson has had a series of training camps preparing him for wrestlers (Chael 1, Okami, Chael 2) and could very well be improving each time out.
Yet another thing to consider is Chael Sonnens takedowns could be better than Weidmans. If they aren't they aren't a hell of a lot worse.
All in all I think Weidman's perfomances are overrated and overshadowed by his opponents verified injuries and verified illnesses. He's done well outside those victories but up against mid to bottom tier competition. He's been on the shelf for a year and Anderson is the GOAT. I think I will be taking Anderson at -220. I will probably be looking for ITD at plus odds as well.
1 unit = 300 $
The Bendo fights were close. They could have gone either way like most of Bendos fights. I think Bendo is one of the luckiest champions in UFC history. Melendez could have gotten that decision and Frankie could have gotten either of the decisions. He's a great fighter and I don't consider any of his wins robberies but a lot of other people did. Fighters included.
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One thing about the Edgar by decision prop is Oliveira doesnt go to decision often. He seems to be a frontrunner who takes the first possible out when things dont go his way.
And god damn with the excuses again. I highly doubt his foot was actually broken. Munoz has always been overrated with wrestling in MMA. Plus he got fucking wrecked in the standup or was that cause of his foot too?
I dont understand how he takes an out when things don't go the way he wants them too. He tapped to a kneebar from Miller. If he didn't he would have injured his knee. His other two losses are knockouts. What are you talking about? Did he look like he gave up in them?
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