Mitch Wilson
Weekly Newsletter Pick: Miami Hurricanes ML
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators 12PM EST ESPN The Line: Miami +3
Most of you know this is one that is close to my heart but this is also one that is pretty easy to figure out. While the SEC still gets all of the props, and hey, for what they have done as far as winning National Championships much of it has been deserved, but in some cases it gets out of hand and that is the case here.
Both of these teams are young and the Florida defense despite having just four returning starters played extremely well against Toledo last week. But while Toledo is a very nice non-BCS team, they are hardly in the class of a Miami when it comes to team speed. Speed is a great equalizer and UF was able to make up for a lot last week (in a game they didn’t cover) with speed alone but that won’t be the case here. Miami is loaded at receiver and Stephen Morris at QB may have one of the strongest arms in the nation. Duke Johnson at running back is tough as nails and has some of the best cutback ability I have ever seen. The Gators D will be keying on Johnson leaving the Miami receivers in single coverage and with Morris’ arm and Miami’s speed here, there is only so much the Gators’ DB’s can do.
When we look at the Florida offense against the Miami defense, Miami’s defense has experience but they were very suspect a year ago and had some big drops of easy interceptions last week. Don’t expect them to have as many opportunities here as Florida won’t be throwing deep often. Florida QB Jeff Driskel simply doesn’t have a good arm and the coaching staff doesn’t design many plays where he throws more than three or four yards, even when they need seven. If the Gators fall behind and Driskel is called upon to air it out Florida will be in very big trouble. If we look at Florida’s stats since Driskel took over they bear this out as they have a roster full of first team High School All-Americans with very low productivity.
When we look at the ACC vs. SEC thing, it didn’t seem to bother the home teams last week as Clemson beat Georgia and South Carolina beat UNC. Alabama beat VT but that was a neutral site game. I don’t expect Miami to have the same home field edge Clemson had, though the stadium will be far more full than usual.
When programs are on the rise they have a signature win and this is Miami’s, I am rolling with the Canes on the money line to win outright.
Mitch’s Pick: Miami +140
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