I watch all the time as people load up on a "sure thing" in the NFL and then go down in smoke. In week 1 everyone loaded up on the Colts -10.5, NE -10, TB -3 , Giants +3.5 , Texans -4 and the Chiefs -3. Those bets went 1-5
So far in week two NE -11 was loaded up on and crashed hard to start the week off 0-1
Two other teams that are getting hit hard are the Saints -3 and Ravens -6.5 . I'm going to try and track this (until I get lazy) , but for now, I'd stay far away from those two games
On both Browns and Bucs.
I did this last season too (fading public on these "easy lines") and did pretty well.
Cleveland
hopefully TB does better
Philly, Baltimore, Indy, Chicago, N.O., Oak, Cinci all were at or above 70% according to vegasinsiders
“It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”
I'm cherry picking public favorites. All of them cant lose, I thinkOriginally Posted by Chico1856
TB
Was going to add Cincy to this but didnt get here earlier. Told poopoo on twitter that the line was a complete overreaction to week 1
Pitt
Last edited by Luke; 09-19-2013 at 11:20 PM.
Adding Eagles -3.5 (so the bet would be KC +3.5)
KC +3.5
From what I read the public was almost split on KC/Eagles? I might be wrong.
For Sunday I think the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Bears are the "traps". Public seems heavy on all four of those teams.
The Vikings seem to fall under that category too but I think that's the trap game that wins.
Action wasnt even close to 50/50 on Philly-KC. Where did you here such?
Vegasinsider showed 58% ATS/60% ML on Eagles
Covers had just over 54% on Philly, pickmonitor had more users on KC than Philly
Interested as to where your % come from Luke, not denying, but always looking for more resources
“It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”
Straight from a bookmaker . And I'm not going by percents, I'm going by lopsided money. A game might have 50/50 bets on it but still may have 90/10 money on one side.
I fully understand how % work. Is this bookmaker a "local" ? If so, his location and size of operation must be factored in. Where is he put of ?
“It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”
Oh, I'm sure you understand how percents work I was just making sure everyone understood I wasn't going by bet percents, I was using money. And its an offshore bookmaker. Not one of the big ones (bookmaker, 5dimes, etc) but its still good info. I've posted every single one so far and I'll continue to do so. I'm not betting right now so I'm just doing it for shits and giggles.
Looks like its 8-3 so far
Appreciate the info, Keep em coming. Some of my favorite threads to read in other forums are local bookmakers posting what they need for the day.
“It is only when you see a mosquito land on your testicles that you realize that there is always a way to solve problems without using violence.”
Only bad thing is he usually doesnt release the info till close to game time
Adding the Giants........so Carolina would be the play
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