Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS
Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.
Team to watch: Rice Owls
This week: -6.5 vs. Kansas
Rice kicked off its season with a tough road date at Texas A&M, but it accounted itself relatively well by pinning 31 points on the Aggies and covering the 28-point spread in a 52-31 loss. The Owls were even better last year against Kansas, going into Lawrence as 12-point underdogs and coming away with a 25-24 win.
Are the Jayhawks in line for some revenge? Maybe not. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against C-USA opposition. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall, 5-0 ATS in its last five out of conference, and 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.
Team to beware: New Mexico State Aggies
This week: +6.5 vs. UTEP
It’s not like New Mexico State scheduled Texas and Minnesota to begin its season in order to get battle-tested for conference play. After all, the Aggies are independent. So it’s hard to see anything good having come from those two contests. New Mexico State lost at Texas 56-7 and to Minnesota 44-21. The Longhorns rushed for a bloated 359 yards and the Golden Gophers racked up 342 yards on the ground.
The Aggies are going up against a UTEP squad that gained 280 yards on 46 carries in a 42-35 loss last weekend. UTEP is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the last four season’s against New Mexico State. The Aggies’ own trends are not encouraging, either. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference contests, and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Total team: Troy Trojans
This week: 66.5 at Arkansas State
Quarterback Corey Robinson, who has surpassed 3,000 yards through the air in each of his first three seasons, is already up to his old tricks. Through two games of 2013, Robinson has completed a ridiculous 47 of 51 passes for 499 yards and five touchdowns without throwing an interception. Troy also rushed for a combined 419 yards in victories over UAB and Savannah State.
The over is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine overall, including 2-0 this year (they beat UAB 34-31 and Savannah State 66-3). Four of their last five non-conference games have gone over the total. Troy is facing an Arkansas State team that is averaging 547 yards per game, including 329.5 on the ground, in 2013.
Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most underrated Top 25 team: Baylor Bears (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
I said that Baylor deserved to be in the Top 25 last week and I took some criticism from readers who noted that the Bear's victory in Week 1 came against an FCS team. Now, they did beat Wofford by a score of 69-3, and this is the same Terriers team that played a relatively close game losing to South Carolina 24-7 just nine months prior.
For those that weren't convinced by Baylor's Week 1 performance, perhaps a 70-13 win over the Buffalo Bulls will raise some eyebrows. Note that the Bulls played Ohio State in Week 1 and, trailing by just 10 points in the third quarter, a penalty nullified a touchdown that would have narrowed the gap to just a field goal.
Most overrated Top 25 team: TCU Horned Frogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
There’s no shame in losing to LSU, but the Horned Frogs didn't come away with a lot of positives in that game. Their offense is struggling and losing starting quarterback Casey Pachall certainly won't help.
TCU defeated the South East Louisiana Lions in Week 2, but prior to this game the Lions had never scored more than 10 points against a BCS team. They had 14 points at halftime and trailed by just a field goal. Winning 38-17 was not an impressive result for a team that’s supposed to be one of the Top 25 in the country.
Unranked team that should be ranked: Northern Illinois Huskies (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
The Huskies only lost once last season and they avenged that loss with a win over Iowa Week 1. Looking at their schedule, they could be favored to win in each of their remaining 11 games. Jordan Lynch threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener and his speed makes him tough to defend.
VEGAS RUNNER
My $$$ again on 'Money' Mayweather at MGM Grand Garden
After months of promoting and speculating, the mega-fight being labeled “The One” is now only days away.
MGM Grand Garden Arena plays host to what is arguably the most highly anticipated boxing match in recent years this Saturday night. Floyd Mayweather Jr. (44-0, 26 KO’s) looks to defend his WBA (Super) Light Middleweight title against Saul Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO’s), who simultaneously defends his WBC and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight titles.
When all the dust has settled, one man will emerge as the undisputed king at 154 lbs. Yet strangely enough, the bout is being contested at a “catch-weight” of 152 lbs. This was a stipulation agreed upon by “Canelo” for a shot at fighting the unquestioned top pound-for-pound boxer on the planet, “Money” Mayweather.
Oddsmakers installed Mayweather Jr. as a -250 betting favorite and Bookmakers have had to steadily adjust by increasing the price to as high as -300 here in Las Vegas. Most believe that trend will change in the days ahead as fans who are attending the event, going to one of the dozens of viewing parties here in town, or watching live via pay-per-view all around the globe, begin to place their wagers.
The phenomenon that takes place in boxing, unlike most other major sports, is that casual fans historically bet the underdog in an attempt to win a lot of money for a lesser amount, as opposed to backing the favorite and being asked to lay a lot to make a little. Couple the fact most mega-fights are so well marketed, ultimately making them appear much more competitive than they eventually end up being, and it’s no surprise casual fans and bettors alike gravitate toward the underdog.
In the case of “The One,” Alvarez also has built an extremely loyal fan base and with Mexican Independence Day weekend being chosen for this event, rest assured the books are about to receive an influx of money on the underdog. This late betting will not only offset the early “sharp” money on Mayweather, but when all is said and done, many books I’ve spoken to expect to be heavy on the Alvarez side.
For Canelo, who is currently ranked No. 10 pound-for-pound on Ring Magazine’s list, the question is whether he can handle the weight cut and be as effective. Simply put, there’s no argument one can make to support he’ll be fighting at his ideal weight, but the pay day and opportunity were too much to pass up.
Come fight night, like in most of his bouts, Alvarez will be the bigger man in the ring and bring with him that one-punch power that can change the complexity of any bout.
The weight-cut will begin to become more of an issue as the fight wears on for Alvarez, especially against one of the most elusive fighters of all time in Mayweather. So look for Alvarez to try and take the fight to Mayweather and keep it in close quarters where he can land some big punches.
For Mayweather, he’ll need to not only survive the early barrage from Alvarez, but also show the youngster that along with being the most efficient defensive fighter of all time, he’s also got some pop of his own. To do this, Mayweather will use that patented shoulder roll to remain at a distance where he can land that straight right hand.
If Mayweather is able to frustrate Alvarez, he’ll most likely resort to landing pot-shots and continuing to get out of harms way, while piling up rounds with the judges.
Floyd has proven to be one of the most intelligent boxers ever, knowing how to systematically break opponents down rather than putting himself in positions where he has to absorb unnecessary punishment.
Floyd had no problem at all making a fight “boring” by avoiding risk and using his superior boxing skills to coast to a unanimous decision victory. If you’re the top ranked CompuBox fighter statistically, when it comes to the percentage of punches landed compared to your opponents, why not apply your trade and box your way into the record books?
Finally, throughout his career Mayweather and his handlers have been masters at choosing the right opponents and the right time…and I believe they’ve done that with Alvarez.
Bottom line, “Canelo” just hasn’t acquired the necessary experience to pose much of a threat to Mayweather yet. Even though his record reflects 42 professional fights, at 23 years of age, rest assured the majority of those were “confidence” building bouts against opponents who posed very little to almost no threat at all.
There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind he has never faced anyone with the technical advantage Mayweather will have over him. On the flip side of that same coin, I also believe there is absolutely nothing Alvarez can bring into this fight Floyd hasn’t seen yet, not a thing.
Above all else, I made my True Line on this fight Mayweather -400…making it a very easy bet to make in favor of the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound.
PICK: MAYWEATHER JR.
River City Sports Syndicate
Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
Saturday 7:00 PM – Jordan Hare Stadium
Current Line – Auburn (-6)
Both of these teams cruised last week against inferior foes and now it’s time to get into SEC play. Auburn HC Malzahn has the Tigers off to a very nice start, especially offensively. The Tigers are averaging 34.5 points in their two wins while only surrendering 16.5ppg. MSU QB Tyler Russell, who was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, is expected to start for the Bulldogs against a less than formidable secondary. The Tigers offense is led by QB Nick Marshall, who was efficient going 10-17, 147 yds and two scores. This should be a pretty good defensive battle and Bulldog HC Dan Mullen knows this is important for their postseason chances, even this early in the season. We thing that Miss State is going to hang very close, might even sneak out of Jordan hare with a victory. The Sharps say…
2 UNITS ON….MISSISSIPPI ST BULLDOGS
RAS
Marshall -6.5
Middle Tenn St -4.5
South Florida -10.5
Northcoast
Early Bird POW - Florida St. -32
Underdog Play - Kansas +6.5
Power Play - Colorado +10
Harry Bondi Free Pick
NOTRE DAME (-20.5)[/B] over Purdue
8:00 p.m. ET Saturday Sept. 14th
We look for the Fighting Irish to bounce back big against a Purdue team that can't score or stop anybody. Boilermakers had 1 offensive touchdown versus Cincinnati in week one and one versus Indiana State last week!! Purdue D a sieve allowing 33.8 points per game in their last 12 games so the big spread is not an issue. Look for the Irish D to pitch a shutout and for "Tommy Turnover" to get back on track. Take the Irish on Saturday.
Betting Line Moves
Virginia Tech -7 -115
NCAA Football Game Picks
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/11)Game 111-112: Eastern Michigan at Rutgers (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 67.399; Rutgers 87.051
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 19 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 27 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+27 1/2); OverGame 113-114: Stanford at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 107.951; Army 69.619
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 38 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Stanford by 28 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-28 1/2); UnderGame 115-116: Georgia State at West Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 50.815; West Virginia 95.367
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 44 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 38 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-38 1/2); OverGame 117-118: Louisville at Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 92.430; Kentucky 81.035
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 11 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Louisville by 14; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+14); UnderGame 119-120: Marshall at Ohio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 85.057; Ohio 75.112
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 10; 73
Vegas Line: Marshall by 7 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-7 1/2); OverGame 121-122: Akron at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 63.533; Michigan 109.944
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 46 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Michigan by 37; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-37); UnderGame 123-124: Bowling Green at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 83.477; Indiana 88.559
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Indiana by 2 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2 1/2); UnderGame 125-126: Virginia Tech at East Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 89.950; East Carolina 80.296
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 9 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 7 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-7 1/2); OverGame 127-128: Maryland at Connecticut (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 88.671; Connecticut 76.810
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 12; 52
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2); OverGame 129-130: New Mexico at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 66.706; Pittsburgh 92.046
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 25 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 21; 52
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-21); UnderGame 131-132: UL-Monroe at Wake Forest (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 75.359; Wake Forest 80.802
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 5 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-3); OverGame 133-134: Western Kentucky at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 79.289; South Alabama 66.401
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 13; 49
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 10; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-10); UnderGame 135-136: Fresno State at Colorado (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 89.839; Colorado 82.766
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 7; 70
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 9 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+9 1/2); OverGame 137-138: Nevada at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 83.189; Florida State 105.779
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 22 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Florida State by 34; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+34); UnderGame 139-140: UCLA at Nebraska (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 97.993; Nebraska 104.566
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 6 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-4 1/2); UnderGame 141-142: Georgia Tech at Duke (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 103.473; Duke 83.795
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 19 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 8 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-8 1/2); OverGame 143-144: Tennessee at Oregon (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 86.561; Oregon 120.820
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 34 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Oregon by 27 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-27 1/2); UnderGame 145-146: Mississippi at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 93.736; Texas 104.139
Dunkel Line: Texas by 10 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-2 1/2); OverGame 147-148: Boston College at USC (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 80.543; USC 100.228
Dunkel Line: USC by 19 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: USC by 14; 43
Dunkel Pick: USC (-14); OverGame 149-150: Iowa at Iowa State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 88.429; Iowa State 84.020
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Iowa by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-2 1/2); UnderGame 151-152: Alabama at Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 114.944; Texas A&M 115.742
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 1; 66
Vegas Line: Alabama by 7 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+7 1/2); OverGame 153-154: Northern Illinois at Idaho (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 95.165; Idaho 54.962
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 40; 56
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 28; 62
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-28); UnderGame 155-156: Mississippi State at Auburn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 91.033; Auburn 99.198
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Auburn by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-5 1/2); OverGame 157-158: Washington vs. Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 93.355; Illinois 88.404
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Washington by 10; 62.5
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+10); UnderGame 159-160: Central Florida at Penn State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 91.475; Penn State 101.800
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Penn State by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-5 1/2); UnderGame 161-162: Ball State at North Texas (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 77.416; North Texas 76.303
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 1; 68
Vegas Line: Ball State by 3 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+3 1/2); OverGame 163-164: Memphis at Middle Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 68.108; Middle Tennessee State 72.245
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4; 58
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+7); OverGame 165-166: Southern Mississippi at Arkansas (12:21 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 67.290; Arkansas 93.751
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 26 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 22; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-22); UnderGame 167-168: Vanderbilt at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 95.228; South Carolina 104.957
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 14; 51
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+14); UnderGame 169-170: Tulsa at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 79.721; Oklahoma 108.679
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 29; 56
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 24; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-24); OverGame 171-172: Ohio State at California (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 100.807; California 88.044
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 13; 71
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 15 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: California (+15 1/2); OverGame 173-174: Massachusetts at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 57.835; Kansas State 107.482
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 49 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 38 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-38 1/2); UnderGame 175-176: Florida Atlantic at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 65.932; South Florida 86.755
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 21; 49
Vegas Line: South Florida by 12; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-12); OverGame 177-178: Kansas at Rice (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 76.456; Rice 81.031
Dunkel Line: Rice by 4 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Rice by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+7); UnderGame 179-180: Kent State at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 82.926; LSU 106.007
Dunkel Line: LSU by 23; 59
Vegas Line: LSU by 37 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+37 1/2); OverGame 181-182: Notre Dame at Purdue (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 101.889; Purdue 87.670
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 14; 43
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 20 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+20 1/2); UnderGame 183-184: UTEP at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 68.241; New Mexico State 65.709
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 2 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: UTEP by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+5 1/2); UnderGame 185-186: Western Michigan at Northwestern (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 61.375; Northwestern 104.717
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 43 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 30 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-30 1/2); OverGame 187-188: TX-San Antonio at Arizona (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 68.040; Arizona 102.778
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 34 1/2;
Vegas Line: Arizona by 25 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-25 1/2); UnderGame 189-190: Oregon State at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 90.547; Utah 100.446
Dunkel Line: Utah by 10; 62
Vegas Line: Utah by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-3); OverGame 191-192: Central Michigan at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 68.861; UNLV 78.955
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 10; 51
Vegas Line: UNLV by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-7); UnderGame 193-194: Wisconsin at Arizona State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 101.700; Arizona State 100.058
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 5 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+5 1/2); Over
RAS
123 b green ov 61
161 ball st under 63-
177 kansas over 57-
193 wisc over 52
Factsman Saturday:
South Florida -12.5
Books, bettors expect Miller to be in Buckeyes lineup
By JASON LOGAN
The Ohio State Buckeyes are holding their breath on the status of star QB Braxton Miller for Saturday’s road showdown with the California Golden Bears.
Miller suffered a sprained ligament in his left knee during the Buckeyes’ 42-7 win over San Diego State last weekend and is not yet cleared to return. However, he has undergone treatment and OSU head coach Urban Meyer is optimistic about Miller’s return.
"It's not as sore, it's an MCL so it's a little unstable," Meyer told the media. "He's got to get used to that brace."
Some sportsbooks are keeping the Ohio State-Cal game off the board while others are expecting Miller to play, and their odds reflect that. The Buckeyes opened around a two-touchdown road favorite and have since been bet up to as high as -16.5 as of Thursday morning. Betting limits have been lowered for these odds until Miller's status is confirmed.
“The spread reflects Miller starting,” says Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com. “The line touched 14 at one point but is now back to 16, which suggests he’s on course for the start.”
The Golden Bears are also dealing with injuries and have a laundry list of ailments on both sides of the ball heading into Week 3, namely leading tackler LB Michael Barto and starting FS Michael Lowe. Cal was nearly knocked off by FCS Portland State last weekend, squeaking out a 37-30 win as a 31-point favorite.
Kenny Guyton stepped in for Miller versus SDSU, throwing for 152 yards and two touchdowns while adding another 83 yards and one score on the ground.
“Even if (Miller) doesn’t start, Guyton showed enough with his arm and his legs to think that the line won’t be affected that much – especially with Cal banged up as well,” says Candler.
The total for Saturday’s Big Ten-Pac-12 showdown opened at 64.5, climbed to 66.5 and is now down to 65.5.
Inside the stats: Don't bet against a vengeful Nick Saban
By MARC LAWRENCE
Covers Expert Marc Lawrence digs deep into his stats machine to bring you the best betting numbers, trends and records for this week's football action in NCAAF and the NFL.
You killed my team, prepare to die
Alabama’s only loss of the 2012 season occurred at home in a 29-24 setback to Texas A&M.
The question is will the Tide extract their revenge or will the weight of being the defending national champion hold them down?
If you like Nick Saban, you’ll like knowing he shines in games when seeking revenge, going 32-17 SU and ATS in his college career – including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.
Saban is also an eye-opening 20-4 SU and 17-6 ATS in games involving a pair of undefeated teams, including 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS with Alabama.
Granted, the Aggies are a jaw-dropping 35-4 straight up at home in games in which they are undefeated since 1984, but Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.
Remember, it was Gandhi who said, “An eye for an eye will only make the whole world blind.”
Somehow, we think Nick Saban could care less.
Taking an early blow
In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season.
An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent’s game film in greater detail. However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.
A week of rest right out of the box in a new season can either help or hinder a team – depending on their previous effort and venue.
In college football, teams in Game 2 playing off a loss with a week of rest are just 58-73 ATS since 1980, including 29-44 ATS when on the road. This week we find Boise State, Navy (away), Southern Miss and UAB (away) in this not-so-desirable role.
On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game 2 playing off a win with a week of rest are 121-86-4 ATS since 1980, with Oregon State in this role next week.
When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 40-14 ATS, including 19-4 SU and ATS when playing away. Beware of the Beavers next week.
Phony baloneys
As we commonly allude to in this column, phony football teams manage to wins games on the scoreboard while losing in the stats.
While there wasn’t the usual amount of “inside-out” wins on the football front last weed, here are teams this week that were last week’s stat winners and losers…
Won the game, lost the stats: Akron, Fresno State, Tennessee and Purdue.
On the flip side, these are teams that lost the game but won the stats: Western Kentucky and Western Michigan.
On the NFL front, last week’s stat winners and losers included:
Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and the St. Louis Rams – all won the game but lost the stats.
Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and the Oakland Raiders – all lost the game but won the stats.
Note: The New York Giants were triple-digit yardage winners, while Akron and Dallas were triple-digit yardage losers.
NFL total discovery
With no-huddle, quicker-pace play, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals are expected to reach new heights.
Not so during Week 1, however, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 last week.
Interestingly, six of the seven games that did go Over involved the seven teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco and Philadelphia – in that order.
Keep an eye on this evolving trend.
Stat of the Week
Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 15-0 ATS in games off a loss of six or more points.
Three best ways to bet Mayweather vs. Alvarez
By EVAN KORN
The promotional drumbeat has echoed far and wide throughout the sporting world for Floyd Mayweather’s latest foray into the ring. He takes on undefeated 23-year-old Mexican superstar Saul "Canelo" Alvarez at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Saturday night.
The fight will be contested at a catch weight of 152 pounds - two pounds below the junior middleweight limit, the division in which Alvarez holds two world titles. Mayweather, 36, will be fighting above the welterweight limit for the third time in a storied, 44-fight career. This is a classic matchup of old vs. young, big vs. small and defense-first tactician vs. steady offensive force.
In preparation for the promotion titled “The One,” here are the three best bets:
Decisions, decisions, decisions
Mayweather is a -280 favorite (Alvarez is +220), although the better play is Mayweather by decision at -160.
I’ll usually recommend taking the moneyline to hedge against a stunning knockout or disqualification. Mayweather, though, has knocked out only two of his past nine opponents, with both of those knockouts coming against opponents (Ricky Hatton and Victor Ortiz) who had recently moved up to welterweight from junior welterweight.
Alvarez is a stout 154-pounder with the frame of a middleweight. A Mayweather KO is highly unlikely, so if you’re putting your money on “Money,” take him by decision.
“Yes, if I had to make a play on Mayweather, I think win by decision is the best play,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.com. “You’re laying -160 and Mayweather rarely goes for the quick win.”
Considering the late money generally pours in on the underdog (and historically has gone against Mayweather), waiting until Saturday to wager on Mayweather might be the best play.
Draw
Granted, it’s anticlimactic to hope for a draw, but the odds (25-1, down from 28-1 Wednesday) are too enticing to pass up.
Even if Mayweather wins in the eyes of the public, he’ll still need to convince two of the three judges. One of the judges assigned to Saturday’s fight, C.J. Ross, was one of the two blind mice that gifted Timothy Bradley with an egregious split decision victory over Manny Pacquiao last year.
A draw, controversial or otherwise, sets up a megabucks rematch. And a rematch benefits everybody - from the fighters to the casinos that rake it in on a big fight weekend. Even if you have Mayweather by decision, a small hedge bet on the draw is advisable.
"People are betting the draw at prices as low as 18-to-1,” boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told Covers.com. “I think it’s more of a reflection of their lack of faith in the competence of the judges than the bout itself. I'd be surprised if Canelo wins four rounds total or any two rounds after round six."
Points spread
Mayweather is a 9.5-point favorite (-130, up from -115 Wednesday), meaning if the fight goes to the scorecards, he’d have to be ahead by a combined 10 points on the three judges’ scorecards.
If Mayweather wins an eight rounds-to-four-type decision, 116-112 across the board, you win the bet. In a close fight, all it takes is one inept judge with a scorecard of 118-110 or 119-109 to shift the prop in your favor. A knockout, TKO or DQ would also get the job done.
Betting the judges is a treacherous proposition, but Mayweather should win handily enough to make it worth your while.
ANDRE GOMES
English Premier League
Arsenal @ Sunderland (Saturday 3:00PM BST / 10:00AM EST)
Sunderland's coach Paolo Di Canio continues having the same bad temper that he used to showcase as a player. On the team's last game at Crystal Palace and after watching forward Ji Dong-Won failing a great scoring chance, Di Canio made fun of him and replaced him at halftime. Then, after team's captain John O'Shea had a critical error that cost the team a penalty kick to Palace and got O'Shea sent off from the game, Di Canio said the following on the flash interview:
"Our leader didn't react in the way he should. That is terrible because it was a crucial game for us," said Di Canio. "The penalty didn't come from a dangerous situation. It's absolutely poor and not acceptable. It was difficult to see this goal at this level. John O'Shea did something really wrong but he is an experienced footballer. It is not just with John O'Shea, but with a few players and there is not the right desire," added the Italian. "I cannot change the heart of my players."
This isn't the best way to manage a team and the truth is that Sunderland has just one point after three games, even though they had a quite accessible schedule, where they faced Fulham, Southampton and Crystal Palace.
On the other side, Arsenal bounced back quite well after losing against Aston Villa on their league debut. They defeated Fenerbahçe twice on Champions League qualifying, while they also easily defeated Fulham on the road and defeated Tottenham at home by 1-0, in a game where they had a better offensive flow than Tottenham, while their defense was also able to do a serviceable job. On trade deadline, Arsenal managed to sign Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid with a club record fee of 42M pounds. Ozil will help Arsenal in being an even better offensive team and certainly few teams in this league can match Arsenal's offensive flow and creativity in the front.
The problem is that Arsenal continues being far from being a top class defensive unit and Arsene Wenger didn't spend anything on trying to improve his team on this area. Depth might also become a short-term problem for them, as they are currently facing a number of injury concerns with Tomas Rosicky, Abou Diaby, Thomas Vermaelen, Mikel Arteta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski and Yaya Sanogo all sidelined. However, coach Wenger said that most of these injuries aren't worrying at all:
"We have lost Rosicky and everybody else should be available. I haven't decided but there is a possibility Özil could start."
For this game, I expect Arsenal to take control of the game, while Sunderland should struggle on defense without their suspended captain John O'Shea, while Wes Brown is also doubtful for this game. On their last two games, Sunderland allowed Southampton to have 67% ball possession and 17 total shots, while they allowed Crystal Palace to have 18 total shots on their last game. If Di Canio's team struggled so much against these two teams, things will only get much worse against a top offensive team like Arsenal. Therefore, I expect Arsenal to score some goals on this game, allowing them to pick up an easy win in here. I'm taking Arsenal on this contest.
NOTE: I expect Arsenal to be a public team on this contest, so this is why I'm already releasing this Saturday play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Arsenal (-0.75) @ -110
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Alabama at Texas A&M: What bettors need to know
Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 60)
The two-time defending national champions take on the Heisman Trophy quarterback who nearly derailed their title defense a year ago when top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 6 Texas A&M for a Southeastern Conference showdown Saturday afternoon. Star quarterback Johnny Manziel and the Aggies put their nation-best eight-game winning streak on the line against Alabama's vaunted defense in one of the most-anticipated matchups of the season. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Manziel's Heisman campaign hit high gear when he orchestrated a 29-24 upset of the undefeated Crimson Tide.
Coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Manziel and the Aggies' high-powered offense, as the Crimson Tide had a week off following a 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in the opener. Alabama hasn't lost a road or neutral-site game since Nov. 6, 2010, a span of 15 games - the longest active streak in the nation. It's the first trip to College Station, Texas, for the Crimson Tide since a 30-10 victory in 1988.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 90s with partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing ENE at 6 mph.
LINE: Alabama opened as a 6-point favorite and was bet up as high as -9.5 before coming down to -7.5. Total opened at 56 and was bet up as high as 63 before coming down to 60 points.
ABOUT ALABAMA (1-0, 1-0 ATS): The Crimson Tide were dominant on defense and special teams against the Hokies but experienced the growing pains associated with an inexperienced offensive line. Three of Alabama's five touchdowns in the opener were produced by the defense and special teams, and Christion Jones accounted for three of the scores with a 74-yard punt return, a 93-yard kickoff return and a 39-yard touchdown catch. The non-traditional scores helped mask a lackluster offensive effort, as Alabama managed only 206 total yards.
ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Coach Kevin Sumlin's team continues to put up huge offensive numbers, averaging 58.5 points and 600 yards through two games, but the defense has been susceptible even against inferior opponents. After being suspended for the first half of the opener against Rice, Manziel came off the bench to throw three touchdown passes, and he rolled up 462 total yards and four scores (three passing) last week against Sam Houston State. The Aggies might need more eye-popping numbers from Manziel this week, as the defense has surrendered 29.5 points and 449.5 yards per contest.
TRENDS:
* Crimson Tide are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 32-17 SU and ATS in revenge spots during his college career – including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.
* Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 41-0 when it has fewer turnovers than its opponent and 51-0 when rushing for at least 140 yards.
2. Texas A&M is 1-4 all-time at home against top-ranked teams. Alabama is the first No. 1 team to visit College Station since the Aggies upset Oklahoma 30-26 in 2002.
3. The Aggies have surpassed 400 total yards in 14 consecutive games. Alabama has not allowed an opponent to reach 400 yards since Texas A&M did so last season.
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