9-14-13

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Where the action is: Books brace for Texas A&M money

Alabama isn’t the only group waiting to sink its teeth into Texas A&M this weekend.

College football bettors have been counting down the days to this SEC showdown ever since Johnny Manziel and the Aggies spoiled the Crimson Tide’s undefeated season with a 29-24 win in Bryant-Denny Stadium last November.

This spread was up as early as June when the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas opened Texas A&M as a 6-point home underdog. The LVH Superbook posted a similar line in July, tacking on a half-point hook.

With kickoff only days away, and a summer full of drama for “Johnny Football” in the past, sportsbooks are currently dealing Alabama as a 7.5-point road favorite. We talk to oddsmakers to see how the betting action has been so far, and where they expect the line to move before the 3:30 p.m. ET start.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: +6, Move: +9.5, Move: +7.5

This line jumped significantly before the season started with rumors that Manziel could be suspended for his role in an autograph scandal, in which he was allegedly paid for signing memorabilia during last year’s BCS Championship weekend.

The spread, which was pulled from the board at many books, went up as high as Alabama -9.5 before the NCAA served up a slap on the wrist and only suspended the reigning Heisman winner for the first half of Texas A&M’s opener versus Rice. Since then, nerves have calmed and money has moved this back down around a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide are still the more popular pick among bettors, with about 67 percent of the total handle on the defending national champs. Since moving down, most books have drawn pretty solid two-way money but know the majority of the action will come Friday and Saturday.

“It’s a bit back and forth on juice, but the number is steady,” says Aron Black of bet365.com. “So far we are just shy of 3-to-1 Alabama ATS money to Texas A&M. Bama will be a banker for the parlays and some heavy-hit singles, but I expect to see some dog money on Texas A&M straight up Saturday.”

The Aggies are currently +240 moneyline underdogs after opening as high as +270 with Alabama coming back as a -300 road favorite to win SU.

The total opened at 54.5 at the Golden Nugget in June and has since climbed as high as 63 points before being bet down over the past week. Action on the under has driven the number to 60.5, with Alabama’s defense expected to prevail over the Aggies' high-flying offense.

Last year’s game played under the 54.5-point total. Texas A&M has topped the number in its first two games of the season while Alabama pushed with the 45-point total in its opener against Virginia Tech.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Texas San Antonio at Arizona (Saturday 9/14 10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona -24.5 (-110) at BetOnline

The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners played Oklahoma State to a 21-point game on the road last week as a 33.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys are not the team they were the last few years. The Wildcats have it going on both sides of the ball, and have won their first two games by a total of 80 points, and this one does not look to be much different. Arizona has a punishing running attack which has ground-out 730 yards in two games. And, UTSA simply does not have the team speed or depth to handle it. Oklahoma State put up 610 yards on them last week, and Arizona is going to put up similar numbers. The difference here is that the Wildcats have a stronger defense, so the distance between these teams is going to show up early and often - especially on the scoreboard. An offense in motion tends to stay in motion in college football, and Arizona has covered four straight after topping the 40-point mark. Play on Arizona in this one.

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Prosportshandicappers

(1unit) take UNDER 62 Alabama/ Texas A&M

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The Winners Circle

Saturday Football Plays

10* Play Texas A&M +8.5 over Alabama (TOP NCAA PLAY) 3:30 PM EST

Texas A&M has won 10 of the last 12 games coming off a win by 17 points or more in their last game and they have also won 13 of the last 16 games after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. Texas A&M has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games when playing as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and they are averaging 58 points a game on offense this season.


10* Play Florida Atlantic +10.5 over South Florida (TOP COLLEGE PLAY) 7:00 PM EST

South Florida has lost 7 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also lost 7 of the last 8 games coming off a road loss in their last game. South Florida has lost 6 consecutive games after scoring 14 points or less and they have lost 18 of the last 26 overall games.


10* Play Oregon State +3 over Utah (TOP NCAA PLAY) 10:00 PM EST

Oregon State has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing as a road underdog of three points or less and they have also covered the spread in 17 of the last 24 games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game. Oregon State has won and covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they are averaging 39 points a game on offense this season.


5* Play UCLA +4.5 over Nebraska (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)
5* Play Oregon -27.5 over Tennessee (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

We give a quick look at all of Saturday's Top 25 afternoon betting action from Week 3 of the college football schedule:

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (+13.5, 59.5)

Teddy Bridgewater looks to build on his early-season productivity when No. 7 Louisville visits in-state rival Kentucky on Saturday. The junior quarterback passed for 752 yards and nine touchdowns in the Cardinals’ first two victories and completed 19-of-21 passes in Louisville’s win over Kentucky last season. The Wildcats are transitioning under first-year coach Mark Stoops and the offense rolled up 675 yards in last Saturday’s 41-7 rout of Miami (Ohio).

Kentucky had 413 passing yards and 262 on the ground against Miami in the second game under new offensive coordinator Neal Brown to rack up the third-most yards in program history. The Wildcats rotated sophomore quarterbacks Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow in the first two games and now face a rugged Louisville defense that allowed just seven points in each of two victories. The explosive Cardinals rank fifth in passing offense (406.5), tied for 16th in scoring offense (46.5 points) and 18th in total offense (545.0).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies over Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington.
LINE: Louisville opened as 11.5-point road faves and is as high -14 at some books. The total is 59.5.
TRENDS:

* The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* The over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
* The Wildcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

Akron Zips at Michigan Wolverines (-37, 56.5)

The last time Michigan secured a home victory against Notre Dame, it struggled initially against a downtrodden Mid-American Conference opponent before recovering en route to a 6-0 start. The 12th-ranked Wolverines look to avoid another early letdown Saturday when they host Akron. Michigan, which defeated the Fighting Irish 41-30 in its last home game between the two longtime rivals, followed up a dramatic victory against Notre Dame in 2011 with a sloppy 31-3 win over Eastern Michigan.

While Eastern Michigan went on to finish 6-6 that year for its only non-losing season since 1995, the Zips - who are coming off a 1-11 campaign - don’t appear to be a team capable of trading blows with the Wolverines. Akron, which is in its second season under former Auburn coach Terry Bowden, has dropped 27 consecutive road contests. The Zips have won only one game in each of the previous three seasons and are coming off a 35-33 home win over James Madison last Saturday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. There is a small five percent chance of rain in the forecast.
LINE: Michigan opened as 36.5-point home faves and is now -37. The total is 56.5.
TRENDS:

* The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the MAC.
* The Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* The under is 8-1 in the Zips last nine games overall.

UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5, 70)

UCLA will be playing with heavy hearts this week following the death of walk-on wide receiver Nick Pasquale, who was hit by a car while walking in his hometown on Sunday. The 17th-ranked Bruins attempt to put that pain behind them when they visit No. 15 Nebraska on Saturday. UCLA had extra time to prepare after an opening destruction of Nevada on Aug. 31 and a bye week.

The Cornhuskers are searching for revenge against the Bruins, who rolled up 653 total yards in a 36-30 home win over Nebraska last season. That marked the second-most yards ever allowed by a Cornhuskers defense, and the loss threw an early wrench into their BCS bowl plans. UCLA used that triumph as a springboard to a strong campaign and hopes to turn the same trick in 2013.

WEATHER: Temperatures in Lincoln will be in the high-60s with a 24 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from the south at 12 mph toward the north end zone.
LINE: Nebraska opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The total is 70.
TRENDS:

* The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
* The over is 4-0 in the Bruins' last four road games.
* The Cornhuskers are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes at Oklahoma Sooners (-24, 51)

Quarterback Blake Bell will make his first career start when No. 13 Oklahoma hosts in-state foe Tulsa on Saturday. Starter Trevor Knight suffered a bruised right knee late in the first half of the Sooners' 16-7 victory over West Virginia last week and left the game after three quarters in favor of Bell with Oklahoma ahead 13-7. Knight is expected to miss up to two weeks, but could miss only one game as the Sooners are off next week prior to their showdown at No. 21 Notre Dame on Sept. 28.

It may not matter who plays quarterback for Oklahoma as its defense has yielded seven points in two games - the fewest allowed by an FBS school that has faced two FBS teams. The Golden Hurricane, voted to win the Conference USA West Division in the preseason poll, were headed for an 0-2 start before rallying from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat Colorado State 30-27 last week. Julius Caesar (Trey) Watts III, son of former Sooners star quarterback and U.S. Congressman J.C. Watts, is responsible for 251 of Tulsa's 700 yards and should attract the majority of Oklahoma's attention.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field from the east at 6 mph.
LINE: The Sooners opened as 24.5-point home faves at most books and are currently -24. The total opened at 49 and is up to 51.
TRENDS:

* The Golden Hurricane are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus the Big 12.
* The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights (+28.5, 51)

Fourth-ranked Stanford looks to extend its winning streak to 10 games when it travels to Army on Saturday in the first meeting between the schools since 1979. The Cardinal picked up where they left off in 2012 by trouncing San Jose State last weekend 34-13. It gave coach David Shaw a 24-4 mark since taking over at Stanford, including wins in his first three season openers, making Shaw the first Cardinal coach to do that in almost 80 years.

It has been nearly 41 seasons since Army knocked off a ranked opponent and almost 51 years since the Black Knights hosted a team ranked in the top five nationally. Army enters on a sour note after suffering a 40-14 loss at Ball State last weekend. The Black Knights turned the ball over three times and gave up 325 passing yards.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies before clearing up later in the game. Wind will blow from the NW at 6 mph.
LINE: Army opened as 28.5-point home dogs. The total opened at 52 and has moved down to 51.
TRENDS:

* The Cardinal are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
* The Black Knights are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* The under is 6-1 in Black Knights last seven games overall.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles (-33.5, 65.5)

One game into his much-anticipated college career and the bar has already been set impossibly high for Jameis Winston, who will look to build on a scintillating debut when No. 9 Florida State hosts Nevada on Saturday. Winston shattered the school's single-game completion percentage and posted an FBS-best passer rating of 252.2 as the Seminoles dismantled Pittsburgh on Sept. 2. Florida State has an extra week to prepare, but it is 1-2 coming off a bye the last three seasons.

Nevada, the alma mater of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, will be playing a ranked team on the road for the second time in three weeks after getting overwhelmed by UCLA 58-20 in the season opener. The Wolf Pack could be forced to play without dual-threat QB Cody Fajardo, who suffered a sprained right knee in last week's 36-7 victory over UC Davis. Fajardo is listed as day-to-day for Nevada, which went 5-1 on the road last season.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 41 percent chance of thunderstorms in Tallahassee.
LINE: The Seminoles opened as 32-point home faves and are currently -33.5. The total is 65.5.
TRENDS:

* The Wolf Pack are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.
* The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
* The under is 12-2 in Seminoles last 14 non-conference games.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 60)

The two-time defending national champions take on the Heisman Trophy quarterback who nearly derailed their title defense a year ago when top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 6 Texas A&M for a Southeastern Conference showdown Saturday afternoon. Star quarterback Johnny Manziel and the Aggies put their nation-best eight-game winning streak on the line against Alabama's vaunted defense in one of the most-anticipated matchups of the season. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Manziel's Heisman campaign hit high gear when he orchestrated a 29-24 upset of the undefeated Crimson Tide.

Coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Manziel and the Aggies' high-powered offense, as the Crimson Tide had a week off following a 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in the opener. Alabama hasn't lost a road or neutral-site game since Nov. 6, 2010, a span of 15 games - the longest active streak in the nation. It's the first trip to College Station, Texas, for the Crimson Tide since a 30-10 victory in 1988.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
LINE: Most books opened with the Crimson Tide as 7.5-point road faves. The total opened at 62 and has come down to 60.
TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* The over is 4-1 in the Aggies last five home games.

Tennessee Volunteers at Oregon Ducks (-27.5, 71)

It’s safe to say the transition from Chip Kelly to Mark Helfrich has been seamless as No. 2 Oregon hosts Tennessee on Saturday in the third game of the post-Kelly era. The high-flying offense hasn’t missed a beat by scoring an average of 62.5 points (third nationally) and ranking second in total offense (664.5) and second in rushing offense (425.0). Tennessee has allowed just 20 points in two games, ranks 29th in total defense (302.0) and has forced nine turnovers.

The Volunteers’ gaudy defensive statistics will be tested by the high-powered Ducks as the first two opponents – Austin Peay and Western Kentucky – lacked the weapons Oregon possesses. First-year Tennessee coach Butch Jones said his team needs to prevent the quick long-yardage scores the Ducks are known for and make them drive the field for points. Oregon is averaging a stellar 9.5 yards per play after opening the Helfrich era with routs over Nicholls State (66-3) and Virgina (59-10).

WEATHER: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the high-70s at Autzen Stadium.
LINE: Oregon opened as a 27-point home fave and has been bet up to -27.5. Most books opened to total at 70 and it is currently 71.
TRENDS:

* The Volunteers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
* The Ducks are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* The over is 26-8-1 in the Ducks last 35 home games.

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Bookieshunter

3* Maryland -5.5 GOM
3* Arizona St. -4
3* Mayweather wins by decision

2* Louisville -13.5
2* Colorado +9.5

1* Mississippi St. +6.5
1* UCLA +4.5

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Dr. Bob

3 Utah

2 Arkansas
2 Colorado

opinions

Texas tech
Under Arizona
North texas
Rutgers
Bowling green
Kentucky

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Betting Line Moves
Virginia Tech -7 -115 Released Monday
Texas -2.5
rice over 58.5
arizona Under 63.5
Purdue Under 49

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University of Colorado officials Friday called off the football game against Fresno State scheduled for noon Saturday at Folsom Field due to the effects of the flooding in Boulder, according to CU officials.

"Even though the weather is improving, Boulder is still designated as a national emergency site," Chancellor Philip P. DiStefano said in a statement. "Our community is hurting. Many of our students are displaced from their homes, including many of our student-athletes. This is not an appropriate time for us to hold a game that would put pressure on the community, both in terms of security/emergency personnel, but also in diverting attention from people in need."

DiStefano also said that "ensuring the safety of CU affiliates and fans has always been the No. 1 priority."

The Fresno State team had been scheduled to fly out Friday afternoon but that flight was delayed as school officials awaited word on whether the game would be played. No makeup date has been set.

CU head football coach Mike MacIntyre said his players are supportive of the decision.

From denver post

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JIMMY BOYD

4* Alabama -7.5

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INSIDER ANGLES

NCAA Football Trends & Angles - Week 3
September 13, 2013

We have already reached Week 3 of the 2013 NCAA Football season, and there are many more conference games on the slate this week as many conferences continue to be their schedules earlier than they did just a few years ago with bigger "superconferences" gaining popularity, necessitating earlier starts because of the sheer size of the leagues.

Another factor is many conferences now having championship games at the end of the year, forcing them to start at least one week earlier than in the past so that those games are not too close to the beginning of the bowl season.

The bottom line of all this is that there are now more September conference games than ever before, and with this in mind, all of our Trends & Angles in Week 3 will pertain to conference games only or more specifically to September conference games only. We will then transition to season-long angles in the first week of October.

Please note that all records are for the last 13 seasons since the 2000 season, plus the first two weeks of this year.

Bet against September home conference favorites coming off a loss
(112-61-5, 64.7% ATS):
Bettors often tend to excuse teams coming off of a loss if the team is home, thinking that the home crowd will inspire the team to a better performance and the fact that they are favored must mean they are the better team. What bettors don't consider is that these teams could just as easily be overvalued, as one loss does not change a team's power rating much when perhaps it should, at least early in the season. Qualifier: Vanderbilt +13½ at South Carolina.

Bet on September road teams in conference games coming off an 'under'
(139-90-8, 60.9% ATS):
Many bettors like to bet flashy teams that score boatloads of points, and teams coming off an 'under' are often the very antithesis of that. However, these "boring" teams often play good defense also, which naturally gives them more value than the scoring machines that are often overvalued. Qualifier: Oregon State +3.

Bet on September conference road underdogs coming off a win (143-96-11, 59.8% ATS): This is yet another angle that has to do with perception as bettors that are unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team early often rely on the oddsmakers to "tell" them who the better team is and then knee-jerk to the favorite. The problem there is that the lines are the softest early in the season and conference underdogs coming off a win may simply be undervalued at this early stage. Qualifiers: Mississippi State +6, Oregon State +3 and Vanderbilt +13½.

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Northcoast

Economy Club - Maryland -6.5

Big Dog Play - Florida Atlantic +13.5

Big Twelve Play - Texas

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Dave Cokin:

117 Louisville -13.5
123 Bowling Green +3
135 Fresno State -9.5
139 UCLA +4.5
141 Georgia Tech -8.5
150 Iowa State +2.5
169 Tulsa +24.5
178 Rice -6.5 TWO UNIT BEST BET
189 Oregon State +3.5
249 Cal Poly +9.5
269 Southern Utah +22

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Delphi Soccer Plays:

English Championship: Watford v Charlton - over 2.5 Goals @ -120 (10am EST)
English Premiership: Everton v Chelsea - Chelsea win @ +135 (12:30pm EST)

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DOUG UPSTONE

Northwestern-30

For Saturday, PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Northwestern, an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 yards per play, against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in two consecutive games.

This incredible college football system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent the last 20 years, with the average margin of victory 34.8 points.

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Marc Lawrence's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: Bowling Green at Indiana
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Bowling Green (+3 -110)
Line Source: TopBet.com
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Bowling Green (Game 123). Note: Fool me once, Hoosiers – shame on you. But after last week’s debacle we’ll be looking for a repeat of that lackluster performance against a very good 18-returning starter Bowling Green team that has posted a 10-2 SUATS record in its last 12 road games as a favorite or dog of less than 6 points. Indiana is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games versus MAC opposition and 1-6 ATS over the last seven in the role of non-conference chalk. Of course, they’re not the only ones: our database confirms that home favorites off a SU home loss when laying double digits are just 2-10 ATS in this role since 2000 when playing off exactly one loss. As is often the case, the well-oiled machine will often toss us a reliable counterpoint: 2-0 SUATS road dogs in Game Three are 24-11 ATS when facing a .500 or greater opponent. The clincher: single-digit non conference home favorites off one loss-exact as a favorite are 1-18 ATS when facing an opponent off a win provided the favorite lost to the spread by more than 13 points in the loss. With that we recommend a 3-unit play on Bowling Green. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Fresno State at Colorado
Time: 2:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Colorado (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Mirage-MGM
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Colorado (Game 136). Note: Much of the Fresno State preseason hype this year was centered around all-MWC QB Derek Carr, and though he did throw for 470 yards against Rutgers, he managed a less-than-impressive 208 yards in the win over Cal Poly-SLO. Meanwhile, the Buffs have been so bad for so long (4-21 SU since leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-12) that their 2-0 start – both SU and ITS (In The Stats) – has gone largely unnoticed. First-year head coach Mike MacIntyre did not mince words while sweeping away remnants of the previous regime, publicly stating that last year’s Buffs were one of the most poorly-prepared teams he had ever seen. But after transforming San Jose State from a 1-win team to a 11-2 bowl winner in just three seasons, we expect to see MacIntyre quickly turn around Colorado’s football fortunes. This looks like a good opportunity as Fresno has struggled to a weak 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS effort versus previous Pac-10/12 opponents. In addition our database notes that undefeated non-conference home dogs of 10 or less points with a winning record that scored 35 or more points in each game are 13-0 ATS when facing a winning opponent not off a win of 20 or more points who allows 14 or more PPG since 1980. We recommend a 3-unit play on Colorado. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Boston Col. at Southern Cal
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Southern Cal (-13.5 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: USC (Game 148). Note: Despite the Trojans stunning home loss last week, all is not lost. The Trojans enter today's fray owning an 11th-ranked ‘D’ allowing a mere 230 YPG, and did not allow an offensive TD in the loss to the Cougars (held Mike Leach to his lowest output ever in a conference game). The stat sheet shows Boston College trekking to the left coast with a 2-0 SU record in tow but the Eagles must overcome a ton of negative ATS roles if they expect to ring the register here. BC is 0-5 ATS in its first road trip, 0-3 ATS versus the Pac-12 and our database reminds us that new coaches in their first road game are just 4-14 ATS when facing a foe off a SU favorite loss. The Trojans fare much better, posting a 6-1 ATS mark in the second of three straight home games, plus they’re 12-7 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss. The most encouraging news for Lane Kiffin and his warriors: 2-0 road teams in Game Three off a SUATS win are 0-15 ATS when facing a non conference host off a home loss that has won 8 or more of its previous 22 games provided the road team did not beat the spread by 18 or more points in its last game. Lay the points with the value-laden Trojans. We recommend a 3-unit play on USC. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Central Florida at Penn State
Time: 6:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Central Florida (+6 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Central Florida (Game 159). Note: And, right on cue, here come the underdog Knights. UCF has opened 2-0 SUATS versus a pair of pancakes in Akron and FIU but the level of competition increases dramatically this week against a Penn State squad that just mauled Eastern Michigan, 45-7. Still, our database likes dogs that were favored by 3 or more TDs the last game, especially when they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games (with the losses coming by only 5 and 6 points). These Knights protect the ball like it’s the Holy Grail, committing just one turnover this season after ranking 16th in the FBS last year in turnover margin. And with head coach George O’Leary’s 7-2 ATS dog collar when his team is undefeated means the large throng at Happy Valley likely won’t intimidate the visitors. Can’t say enough about what a great job Bill O’Brien has done at State College since the passing of Joe Pa but the Lions have traditionally struggled in this role: just 1-7 ATS at home off a previous homer versus an unbeaten foe – including 0-5 ATS the last five outings. UCF has a habit of playing to the level of its competition (last 11 SU defeats came by an average of just over 7 PPG), a characteristic that sometimes causes foes to underestimate their talent level. O’Brien won’t fall into that trap but we don’t think it’s going to matter, not when he takes on his former boss O'Leary (assistant at Georgia Tech). The clincher: road dogs off a shutout road win are 17-3 ATS since 1980 when facing a non-conference opponent, including 12-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and facing a .333 or greater opponent. Grab the points. We recommend a 3-unit play on Central Florida. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Member Plays
Matchup: Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: East Carolina (+8 -110)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: East Carolina. Note: Apparently, this line is based purely on name and reputation. The truth is these two teams are heading in opposite directions and the oddsmaker can do little about it. The Pirates have won 7 of their last 8 regular season contests while the Hokies have dropped 6 of their last 10. In addition, the Techsters were favored on the road four times last season, going 0-4 ATS while losing three of those games straight-up. Yes, we realize the Hokies are 13-1 SU in the state of North Carolina during the regular season since 2004, but this game is hardly a ‘must-win situation’ and these aren’t the same Beamer Boys we’ve come to love in the past. On the flip side, we’ve been predicting a breakout season for Ruffin McNeill’s squad and a victory here would be a huge step in that direction. However, Bud Foster’s defense made Alabama’s young offensive line look silly at times in the season opener, so an outright win is a difficult proposition. Still, keep in mind that the Pirates are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games of this series, and that home underdogs of 7 points or less in Game Three coming off back-to-back home wins are 11-3 ATS since 1993. Finally, Mike Leach disciple McNeill is 13-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS at home against opponents with a record of .500 or worse. In this case, it’s better to receive than to give. We recommend a 1-unit play on East Carolina. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Mississippi at Texas
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Mississippi (+3 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Mississippi (Game 145). Note: It wasn't long after the Texas defense was eviscerated for an unimaginable 550 rushing yards by BYU that Longhorns head coach Mack Brown hit the panic button and fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, marking the first time ever in his college career that Brown dismissed a coach in mid-season. Enter former Syracuse HC Greg Robinson as the new DC. Robinson was working as a TV analyst when he got the call. As if that’s not enough for Brown to worry about, starting QB David Ash is likely out for this game with a head and shoulder injuries. Case McCoy will step in, making his eighth appearance as a quarterback with the Longhorns. In those games - five in 2011, two in 2012 - McCoy had a TD-INT ratio of 8-7 with an average raw QBR of 43.4. Texas went on to lose five of the seven contests. Regardless of who's behind center, the ‘Horns are still in a rotten role here: as single-digit home favorites off one loss exact are a weak 19-40 ATS versus a foe off a win. Bevo hasn’t had much luck with the SEC either, going 2-6 ATS the last eight meetings and posting a dismal 4-10 ATS mark as overall non-conference chalk of 11 or fewer points. Our database backs a play on the visitors, too, noting that SEC teams are 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 foes off a SU favorite loss – and that Mississippi HC Hugh Freeze is an eye-popping 10-0 SU and 8-1 ATS versus an opponent off a loss, including 7-0 SUATS against teams off a SUATS loss. Add to that this beauty from our database: non-conference home favorites of 20 or less points off a SU road favorite loss of 9 or more points are 0-11 ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off a win with revenge. The clincher: Brown is 18-33 ATS in his career versus undefeated opponents, including 0-6 SUATS in games after having allowed 34 or more points in his previous contest. FYI: he was in this same exact role last year as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia and managed to lose the whole game, 48-45. Look for the royally pissed Rebels to avenge last year’s 66-31 thrashing at Oxford in a major payback as the money-burning continues in Austin tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Ole Miss. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SweetJones55

Marshall Thundering Herd -6.5 (x1)
Pittsburgh Panthers -21.5 (x1)
Texas Longhorns -6.5 (x1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Playersbet 7 unit CFB Saturday Play

7 Unit Play. #127 Take Maryland Terrapins -6 over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN3.com)

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Prediction Machine's
NCAAF lock Rice -6.5

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Robert Ferringo's
Stanford (-29) over Army
FIRST HALF: Take #113 Stanford (-16.5) over Army
Ohio State (-15.5) over Cal
Ohio (+8) over Marshall
Kansas (+7) over Rice
West Virginia (-39.5) over Georgia State
Georgia Tech (-8.5) over Duke
Maryland (-6) over Connecticut
Oklahoma State (-47) over Lamar
Arizona State (-5) over Wisconsin
Alabama (-7.5) over Texas A&M
Central Florida (+5.5) over Penn State
Louisville (-13.5) over Kentucky
TEASER: Take #157 Washington (-2.5) over Illinois (6 p.m.) AND Take #176 South Florida (-5.5) over Florida Atlantic
Ball State (-3) over North Texas
Utah State (-36) over Weber State
Utah (-3) over Oregon State