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RATINGS AND WRITE UPS FOR
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
6-Unit Play. #194 Take Arizona State (-5) over Wisconsin (10:30 p.m., Saturday, September 14)
Game of the Month
This game breaks down in my eyes fairly similar to last week's 7-Unit winner behind Miami over Florida. Similarly to the Gators, Wisconsin is overrated in the polls and perhaps just given the rating by name alone. The only difference is here, oddsmakers have installed the Sun Devils as clear favorites despite being unranked. This time the line is spot on. ASU should be favored. What has this Badgers team done to prove itself? The Badgers enter the season with no real proven commodity at quarterback and even more importantly (and rare for the program) without someone to speak of carrying the ball. Like I said, I feel like Wisconsin's ranking is based purely on tradition and not on current skill or quality on this year's roster. And let's be honest about this: first year head coach Gary Anderson has given this team zero identity, further backing up my point this is not the Wisconsin that earned their credit years ago. Now to our team who I absolutely love this season. Arizona State is a dynamic sleeper in the Pac 12 with the likes of Oregon and Stanford eating up all the press and hype. Watch quarterback Taylor Kelly. People will be throwing his name around as a legit NFL prospect in about two to three months. Last year as a sophomore Kelly accounted for 29 touchdowns and I think he is going to have a wonderful season in Tempe. I'm even higher on the Sun Devil defense, who led the country in 2012 in tackles for a loss and were second in sacks. That's going to show here with some immense and consistent pressure in the Badgers backfield. And also note that Wisconsin doesn't travel well out west. Each of the previous three seasons the Badgers have played a game on the west coast and were 0-2-1 ATS in these games. Also throw in three straight losses in the last three bowl games to west coast teams as well. Arizona State has covered three of its last four non-conference games and gone 6-1 ATS vs. the Big Ten. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS in their last eight outside league play and also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. the Pac 12 conference. Sun Devil stadium is a difficult place to play and without proven leaders on offense, Arizona State's swarming defense will be the difference here. Behind the best player on the field in quarterback Taylor Kelly, a strong defense and a big home field advantage, ASU proves to be too much. Sun Devils win, 31-21.
4-Unit Play. #161 Take Ball State (-3.5) over North Texas (4 p.m., Saturday, September 14)
Pricing out Ball State as a road favorite here confirms this wager for me. The Cardinals probably slide under the rug for the casual bettor and for line to be pushed their way tells me the guys in Vegas took time to get this one correct. 91 points combined in their first two games of the season, Ball State is going to continue pounding the scoreboard and their opponents. Both wins also came via double-digit covers as the clearcut favorite, and here they do on the road. Ball State have now gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season and I really can't see any reason to stay away from them here and hop on their momentum. There's not much else that really convinces me here besides wagering on the better team from a better conference.
3-Unit Play. Take Washington/Illinois - 'Over' 62 (6 p.m., Saturday, September 14)
I see points, points and points with these two power conference teams colliding on Saturday. The Huskies and the Illini have both shown early on in season they can score in bunches. UW rang up 38 points on Boise State in their opener, so I would not be surprised in they matched that against an Illinois program that hasn't proven itself as anything really. Likewise for U of I, as the home team has scored 40+ in each of its first two games and did well to bounce some confidence prior to hosting Washington in Solider Field in Chicago. And I think the line sort of lends itself to suggesting the 'over' if I can be so presumptuous. Oddsmakers are certainly expecting UW to throw its weight around if they installed the Huskies as double digit road chalk. But see this game offering more scoring than only the favored road team. Illinois have gone 'over' the number in each of their past four non-conference games. They'll have to keep up on the scoreboard if they don't want this one to be a one-sided affair. I think they do enough and play their part in playing 'over' the total in this one.
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RATINGS AND WRITE UPS FOR
CHAD MATTHEWS
6 Unit Play. ROT# 117 Louisville Cardinals (-13.5) over the Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday Sept 14, 12PM ET)
The Louisville Cardinals head to Kentucky this weekend in a big rivarly match. Typcially I am not a fan of laying points on such a rivarly match however the Cardinals just bring to much to the table for the Wildcats to handle. Heisman trophy candidate Teddy Bridgewater just has to many options to go to in this match up completing 76% of his passes this season alone. Returning veterans to this years Cardinals squad are Damian Copeland, Eli Rogers, Devante Parker and Ryan Hubbell which pose as a big offensive threat to any team ranking 5th this year in the passing department. The Wildacats are not even on the same level as this years Cardinals squad. The Cardinals limited Ohio and Eastern Kentucky to a single touchdown in their first two games this season and I expect a similiar result this weekend as well. This line has no business being at -13.5. Take the Cardinals and the points at -13.5 and expect the Cardinals to cruise to an easy blow out victory.
3 Unit Play. ROT# 193 Wisconsin Badgers (+5.5) over the Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday Sept 14, 10:30PM ET)
This will be Wisonsin first true test of the season heading into Sun Devil Stadium to take on Arizona State. The Badger have not given up a single point to an opponent in the first two weeks of the season thanks to its stellar defensive line. The Badgers defense have only allowed their opponents to cross midfield four times in the past 25 drives this season! Even though Arizona State has a great defense this year I still expect the Badgers to move the ball at ease with the likes of Corey Clement, James White and Melvin Gordon on the offensive side. The Badgers are a team that loves to run the ball and regardless of how good the opposing teams defense is the Badgers can run against any defense with success. I expect this game to be a close one to the end and not sure why the Sun Devils are favored by so many points at -5.5 against the 20th ranked team in the nation. Expect a tight one and possibly an outright win by the Badgers. Take Wisconsin and the points at +5.5 and be ready for a nail biter
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ASA
5* Washington
4* Utah
3* Bama
3* Notre Dame
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CFL Saturday: What bettors need to know
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Eskimos (-4.5, 53)
After snapping a seven-game losing skid with their first victory at their new home field, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers head to Edmonton to face the struggling Eskimos on Saturday. Winnipeg’s defense played its best game of 2013 to defeat the Saskatchewan Roughriders and quarterback Justin Goltz continued to be unconventionally effective on offense, rushing for two more touchdowns, which puts him in a tie for the league lead with eight. A visit to the Eskimos - the one team with a worse record than Winnipeg - could be the perfect opportunity for the Blue Bombers to post consecutive victories.
Edmonton faltered in a home-and-home series against the Calgary Stampeders as its losing skid hit eight games. A roster shakeup on the offensive line failed to quell the pressure on quarterback Mike Reilly, who is completing 60.5 percent of his passes and has thrown 10 interceptions in his first year as starter. Reilly also leads the team with 417 rushing yards - an example of how the Eskimos lean on a pass-heavy offense - but Edmonton’s offensive line will have its hands full with a Blue Bombers' defense that recorded eight sacks on Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant.
TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-8): Defensive back Demond Washington and kick returner Will Ford were named CFL players of the week for their performances against Saskatchewan. Washington recorded a game-high seven tackles along with one sack and one fumble recovery, while Ford returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown to earn special teams player of the week. Goltz has a completion percentage of 56.7 and has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions, but has eight of Winnipeg's 15 rushing TDs with Chad Simpson recording six.
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-9): Offensive lineman Simeon Rottier returns to Edmonton’s lineup after being benched against the Stampeders. In addition to Rottier’s return, the Eskimos will also receive some help on defense with the probable return of defensive end Odell Willis and linebacker J.C. Sherritt. Willis - the team leader with five sacks - and Sherritt, who set a league record in tackles last season, were practicing with the first team for the first time since suffering their respective injuries.
TRENDS:
* The Blue Bombers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* The Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* The Blue Bombers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Winnipeg, which is last in the league with 217 points, has scored 15 rushing touchdowns, but just five passing touchdowns.
2. Edmonton SB Fred Stamps leads the league with 765 receiving yards.
3. The Blue Bombers traded QB Buck Pierce, who began the year as starter, to the BC Lions in exchange for Canadian wide receiver Akeem Foster.
Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9, 55)
The Saskatchewan Roughriders looked human in their loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, failing to reach the end zone for the first time all season. Saskatchewan is hoping a return home will erase the sting of last week’s setback when it hosts the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday. Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant was sacked a season-high eight times by the Blue Bombers, but combined with league-leading running back Kory Sheets for 158 rushing yards and should have an easier time against Toronto’s less-imposing defense.
The Argonauts maintained their East Division lead and avoided a three-game losing skid thanks to backup quarterback Zach Collaros, who completed 30-of-43 passes for 336 yards, two passing touchdowns and one rushing score against the Montreal Alouettes. Toronto was struggling on offense without starters Ricky Ray and Chad Kackert, and losing star slotback Chad Owens prior to last week was not a promising sign, but four interceptions by the Argonauts' defense and a nine-catch, 91-yard performance by wide receiver Dontrelle Inman showed Toronto might have enough depth to weather their midseason injury storm.
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (6-4): Prior to last week, Toronto had recorded 16 points in seven-plus quarters after losing Ray early against the Calgary Stampeders. Collaros has thrown for 1,267 yards and is completing 69.7 percent of his passes, while also trailing Kackert for the team rushing lead by 2 yards. Toronto traded offensive lineman Marc Parenteau to Winnipeg for running back Anthony Woodson in an attempt to shore up its running game as running back Curtis Steele has been ineffective of late.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (8-2): Linebacker Renauld Williams, who has a team-leading 42 tackles and seven sacks along with one interception return for a touchdown, will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL against the Blue Bombers. Saskatchewan announced the news in a tweet Wednesday. Center Dominic Picard was fined an undisclosed amount by the league following an incident in in Week 11 in which he threw a punch. Sheets leads the league with 1,214 rushing yards - 274 more than anyone else.
TRENDS:
* Argonauts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Roughriders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Argonauts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Saskatchewan.
* The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Roughriders defeated the Argonauts 39-28 at Toronto in Week 3.
2. Owens is considered doubtful for Saturday. Ray hopes to return by mid-October as he recovers from a knee injury.
3. Saskatchewan is 4-0 at home. Toronto is 2-3 against West Division opponents.
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Saturday's MLB National League betting cheat sheets
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's National League games:
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (+156, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Reds right-hander Homer Bailey has won his last five decisions and has allowed just two runs over his previous three starts.
Cold batting stat: Brewers OF Carlos Gomez has just two hits - both singles - in 18 career at-bats against Bailey.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Reds are 2-6 in Bailey's last eight meetings with the Brewers.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets (Game 1) (+100, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez stymied the Mets in their last encounter July 31, allowing two runs on six hits over 7 1/3 innings en route to a 3-2 victory.
Hot batting stat: Miami OF Giancarlo Stanton has a solo home run in two at-bats against New York starter Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Marlins are 1-5 in Alvarez's last six starts against the National League East.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-144, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels is 14-6 with a 2.52 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 27 career starts against the Nationals.
Hot batting stat: Philadelphia 1B Darin Ruf is 3-for-7 with a home run and four RBIs lifetime against Washington starter Gio Gonzalez.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Phillies are 20-6 in Hamels' previous 26 starts against Washington.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-185, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last five starts.
Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh C John Buck is just 3-for-16 with eight strikeouts in his career against Cub starter Scott Baker.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with sunny skies. Wind will be calm.
Key betting note: The under is 6-2 in Cole's last eight starts as a favorite.
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-185, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Kris Medlen is 2-2 with a 1.33 ERA and zero home runs allowed in 20 1/3 innings against the Padres.
Hot batting stat: San Diego C Nick Hundley has doubled twice and driven in a pair of runs in two at-bats against Medlen.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: Atlanta is 15-2 in Medlen's last 17 home starts against teams with losing records.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets (Game 2) (-128, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Jacob Turner has allowed eight runs over 9 2/3 innings in back-to-back starts.
Cold batting stat: Members of the Miami roster are hitting a collective .133 in 15 at-bats against Mets starter Carlos Torres.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The Marlins are 1-7 in Turner's last eight starts as an underdog.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Rockies right-hander Roy Oswalt has surrendered five runs in three of his five outings this season, while allowing opponents to hit .363 against him.
Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks INF Martin Prado is just 2-for-13 in his career against Oswalt.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Oswalt's last four starts.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Ricky Nolasco is 7-0 with a 1.89 ERA and just four home runs allowed in 10 second-half starts.
Cold batting stat: Los Angeles 1B Adrian Gonzalez is 9-for-47 with zero home runs, one RBI and 16 strikeouts against Giants starter Tim Lincecum.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 11-1 in the Dodgers' last 12 Saturday games.
Interleague
Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (-230, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha hasn't allowed a run in his last five outings, spanning 19 2/3 innings.
Hot pitching stat: Mariners lefty James Paxton won his major-league debut a week ago, limiting Tampa Bay to two runs over six innings of a 6-2 triumph.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last four starts as a favorite.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starter as of 10:39 p.m. ET Friday.
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Saturday's MLB American League betting cheat sheets
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's American League games:
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-163, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Yankees starter CC Sabathia's 4.62 career ERA in 26 starts versus Boston is more than a run higher than his career mark (3.60).
Cold batting stat: Boston DH David Ortiz is hitting just .228 with 15 strikeouts in 57 career at-bats against Sabathia.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Red Sox have won their last seven Saturday games.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-152, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Bartolo Colon is 19-8 with a 3.61 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 32 career starts against Texas.
Cold batting stat: Oakland OF Yoenis Cespedes has struck out seven times in 11 at-bats all-time against Texas starter Yu Darvish.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 9-1-1 in Darvish's last 11 home starts.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (+133, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman was sensational in his previous start, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings of a 4-2 win over the New York Yankees.
Hot batting stat: Members of the Baltimore roster are hitting a collective .326 against Toronto starter Esmil Rogers.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Orioles are 8-2 in Tillman's last 10 starts against division foes.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-153, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Doug Fister struggled in his previous start against the Royals, allowing five runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss six days ago.
Hot batting stat: Royals DH Billy Butler is 11-for-33 with five RBIs all-time against Fister.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Tigers are 13-3 in Fister's last 16 starts as a favorite between -151 and -200.
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (+133, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA and 24 walks allowed in 38 1/3 career innings against the White Sox.
Cold batting stat: White Sox DH Adam Dunn has struggled mightily against Jimenez, going just 5-for-29 with 16 strikeouts all-time.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow in from right-center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The Indians have won eight consecutive games with umpire Jeff Kellogg behind home plate.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (+146, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Angels right-hander Jered Weaver is 17-9 with a 3.24 ERA in 35 career September starts.
Cold batting stat: Astros OF Chris Carter - the only Houston player to have faced Weaver - is 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against him.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 8-1 in the Angels' last nine games against left-handed starters.
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (+151, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander Matt Moore is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break.
Cold batting stat: The Twins' present roster is hitting just 6-for-35 with zero home runs against Moore.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 50 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 13-3 in Tampa Bay's last 16 Saturday games.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 10:35 p.m. ET Friday.
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Great Lakes Sports Handicapper Selection
Date: 9/14/2013
Here we go with a Huge College Football Winner for this Saturday. It's our 9* College Football Game Of The Year that will knock your man silly for only $30.00 and it's all on a pay after you win basis. This 9* beauty is a perfect 19-0 ATS (100%) combined record in our favor, so checkout the reasons why behind this 9* beauty by checking out all of Great Lakes Sports award winning selections and "Dr 9/13/2013
Great Lakes Sports rates their selections 1* to 10* with 10* being our highest rated selection, as we will use a 10* for a game of the year.
College Football Selection:
Kansas at Rice 7:30PM EST Play on: College Football Game Of The Month: 9* (178) Rice Owls
The Rice Owls will host the Kansas Jayhawks in this key non-conference showdown. The Owls are an improved squad with their high power offense and will have no trouble putting points on an inexperience Jayhawks defense which only have four starters returning. The Rice Owls are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and the Rice Owls is also a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing their last nine games against non-conference opponents. The Rice Owls are a stellar 5-0 ATS their last five games following a straight up loss of more than twenty points, and they have been on fire winning their last four game against the spread. We look for the Rice Owls to blow out the Kansas Jayhawks and grab the home win & cover this Saturday. TAKE: College Football Game Of The Month: 9* (178) Rice Owls
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English Breakfast Premier League Betting Cheat Sheet
Curse those international breaks!
The Premier League is back this weekend after a brief hiatus for the World Cup qualifiers. The transfer window is no more and clubs can now focus on integrating new stars to the league.
We talk to Aron Black at bet365 to find where action is on some of the hotter fixtures.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace (-500, +650, +1600)
Why bet Manchester United: It hasn't been the best of start for David Moyes at United. The Red Devils currently sit sevent in the table after collecting a win, draw and loss through the first three games. United will look to make this one a statement game and look to bag goals after a 0-0 draw with Chelsea followed by a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool prior to the break.
Key players out/doubtful: Darren Fletcher, Wayne Rooney, Rafael, Phil Jones
Why bet Crystal Palace: Palace's last match before the break was a 3-1 victory over Sunderland which bagged the club's first points of the season. You can probably expect the same starting XI in this one, but the side has major injury concerns so the depth just won't be there.
Key players out/doubtful: Glenn Murray, Yannick Bolasie, Jonathan Parr, Lewis Price, Patrick McCarthy, Jonathan Williams, Jack Hunt, Jerome Thomas
2012-13 fixture result: N/A
Key betting note: The last newly-promoted club to win at Old Trafford in the Premier League was Bolton Wanderers (2-1 inn 2001-02).
Aston Villa v Newcastle (+115, +240, +280)
Why bet Villa: All things considered, the Villains have had a nice little start to the campaign. Yes, the side has lost back-to-back games, but that was away to Chelsea and home to Liverpool. And those games were close. Villa started the season in fine form by thrashing Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates and the side is performing well for boss Paul Lambert. Plus, Christian Benteke is climbing the ladder of "most feared strikers in the league".
Key players out/doubtful: Charles N'Zogbia, Nathan Baker
Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies are coming off a very important victory over Fulham last time out. The side needed the three points and, more importantly, needed the goal. Hatem Ben Arfa's game winning goal is still the side's only goal of the season, but perhaps the predominantly French squad is starting to get on the same page.
Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor, Michael Williamson, Jonás Gutiérrez, Gabriel Obertan
2012-13 fixture result: Aston Villa 1, Newcastle 2
Key betting note: Newcastle have just two wins, seven draws and 12 losses in its last 21 Premier League away matches.
Where the action is: "The road has not been nice to the Magpies, with a 4-0 kicking at Man City, and although Villa are not as imposing as the Citizens, it’s a price that at odds against is getting weighed into. The draw sees some support, but Newcastle are rather friendless in the betting."
Fulham v West Brom (+115, +240, +280)
Why bet Fulham: Fulham need goals after a slow start to the season and West Brom could be just what the doctor ordered. The Cottagers have scored 15 goals in their previous five home matches against West Brom, so at least history is on their side. Martin Jol's side should have more bite in an attack that features Dimitar Berbatov, Darren Bent, Bryan Ruiz and Adel Taarabt, so they'll be looking for goals Saturday.
Key players out/doubtful: Kieran Richardson, Fernando Amorebieta, Aaron Hughes, Maarten Stekelenburg
Why bet West Brom: The Baggies will do what they can to climb up the table and get out of that dreadful 20th spot in the table. An area that needs to be addressed is shots on target, of which the Baggies have just four through three games. They should get a lift from some of the club's new signings, namely Stephane Sessegnon and Scott Sinclair, who should improve the Baggies attack, or lack thereof. They are the only side that have yet to register a goal this season.
Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, George Thorne, James Morrison, Steven Reid, Matej Vydra
2012-13 fixture result: Fulham 3, West Brom 0
Key betting note: West Brom have not scored a goal in five of its last seven away games in the league.
Hull v Cardiff (+140, +230, +230)
Why bet Hull: The Tigers looked fairly good against Manchester City in the club's last match. Though they did take the 2-0 loss, it's something that can be built upon. Plus, Cardiff could be exposed at the back as centerback Steven Caulker and keeper David Marshall will both be ruled out.
Key players out/doubtful: Allan McGregor, Abdoulaye Faye, George Boyd, Yannick Sagbo
Why bet Cardiff: Cardiff has gotten off to an excellent start to the season, posting a victory over Manchester City and a draw with Everton. Striker Frazier Campbell was a revelation against City, as the 26-year-old tallied a pair of goals, including the winner, in the historic 3-2 victory.
Key players out/doubtful: Steven Caulker, David Marshall, Andreas Cornelius
2012-13 fixture result: N/A
Key betting note: Hull has scored at least two goals in six of its last seven matches versus Cardiff in all competitions.
Stoke v Manchester City (+450, +300, -143)
Why bet Stoke: Low and behold, the Potters sit fifth in the table after a pair of wins in their first three matches. New manager Mark Hughes bolstered the squad on the final day of the window adding Marko Arnautovic, Oussama Assaidi and Stephen Ireland and all three will compete for starting spots.
Key players out/doubtful: Charlie Adam, Glen Whelan
Why bet City: Man City are one of the favorites to win the league but a loss to Cardiff threw a wrench into the early part of the schedule for new manager Manuel Pellegrini. City will be in for a tough match, as the Brittania Stadium is a tough place to play, but will look for a big rebound after the loss. City boast so much attacking depth and we may see the introduction of ex-Fiorentina hitman Stevan Jovetic. City's attack will give Stoke plenty of headaches, even though playmaker David Silva could miss this one.
Key players out/doubtful: Vincent Kompany, David Silva, Micah Richards, MartÃ*n Demichelis
2012-13 fixture result: Stoke 1, Man City 1
Key betting note: Since the start of the 2012-13 Premier League season, no club has had more clean sheets than Man City with 20.
Where the action is: "Currently, City's back four are and team in general are without captain Vincent Kompany, and they have had their first loss already at a very game Cardiff side. The money and the odds say Mark Hughes will be conceding the three points to a side he used to manage."
Sunderland v Arsenal (+475, +300, -150)
Why bet Sunderland: Paolo Di Canio has brought many new faces to Sunderland, but has not gotten the results thus far. The Black Cats have just one point, but are a side that will need to time to see results. In all, there are 14 new players in the side and the Italian manager has pillaged Serie A for the bulk thereof. Even though Arsenal is dealing with a plethora of injuries, it will be a tough ask for Di Canio to stop the Gunners attack.
Key players out/doubtful: Craig Gardner, Phillip Bardsley, Lee Cattermole, Connor Wickham, John O'Shea
Why bet Arsenal: After a tough loss to Aston Villa to open the campaign, the Gunners have settled in nicely winning both matches since. One of those victories was against noisy neighbors Tottenham, which was closely followed by potentially the best transfer signing of the window, Mesut Özil. The majestic German playmaker should slot right in behind goalscoring dynamo Olivier Giroud and to the left of the underappreciated Santi Cazorla.
Key players out/doubtful: Tomas Rosicky, Abou Diaby, Per Mertesacker, Mikel Arteta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Yaya Sanogo
2012-13 fixture result: Sunderland 0, Arsenal 1
Key betting note: The Black Cats have just one home victory in their last nine visits from Arsenal in the Premier League.
Tottenham v Norwich (-222, +350, +750)
Why bet Tottenham: Tottenham finally confirmed the sale of their star-winger Gareth Bale to Real Madrid and have replaced him with young, skilled players such as Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen. That aforementioned duo must orechestrate some attacking for Spurs as they have yet to score a goal from open play in the league. Tottenham suffered a tough 1-0 defeat away to Arsenal last time out, so perhaps the international break couldn't have come at a better time.
Key players out/doubtful: Etienne Capoue, Aaron Lennon, Emmanuel Adebayor, Vlad Chiriches, Gylfi Sigurdsson
Why bet Norwich: Norwich is another side that has welcomed many new faces. The Canaries opened the campaign with a draw against Everton and went into the break with a victory over Southampton. New striker Ricky van Wolfswinkel opened his account in home draw to Everton and now with Swedish international Johan Elmander in the mix, Norwich could prove to be a handful for Spurs.
Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett, Gary Hooper, Ryan Bennett
2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 1, Norwich 1
Key betting note: Spurs have lost just one of their previous 14 home matches, winning 10 and drawing three.
Everton v Chelsea (+240, +230, +135)
Why bet Everton: Everton has started life under Roberto Martinez with three draws in three matches, but the last two were scoreless draws. They haven't scored since the opening 2-2 draw versus Norwich and the side will now have to adjust to life without Marouane Fellaini. They did, however, manage to hold onto LB Leighton Baines and will welcome the addition of young midfielder James McCarthy. Obviously, goalscoring has been a problem and striker Nikica Jelavic is slowly falling out of favor. They landed Romelu Lukaku on loan from Chelsea, but he will be unavailable to face his parent club.
Key players out/doubtful: Antolin Alcaraz, Darron Gibson, Romelu Lukaku
Why bet Chelsea: Chelsea will look to seize control of the top spot in the table with all three points in Sunday's late match. The last time we saw Chelsea in the league, they were finishing off a dull 0-0 draw away to Man United. But manager Jose Mourinho looks like he's never left Stamford Bridge. The side features a "who's who" of young talent and a smattering of the old guard that won the league under the Portuguese manager. Dating back to last season, the Blues have remained unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League matches.
Key players out/doubtful: N/A
2012-13 fixture result: Everton 1, Chelsea 2
Key betting note: There have been under 2.5 goals in Everton's last six Premier League home matches.
Where the action is: "The most action we are seeing so far for an away side this weekend is Chelsea."
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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
CFB W MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN
Play On - Home favorites (NORTHWESTERN) excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR)
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
CFB OLE MISS at TEXAS
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning
59-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.1% 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )
CFB VANDERBILT at S CAROLINA
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (S CAROLINA) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 5 or more straight wins, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% -1.3 units )
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WRITE UPS FOR
TEAM DOC SPORTS
4 Unit Play. #117 Take Louisville Cardinals -13.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) The Governor's Cup is on the line in this annual meeting between Louisville and Kentucky. The Cardinals have won five of their last seven games in Lexington, and they have a much better team this year than does Kentucky. The Wildcats already lost to WKU, a team that got pounded by a middle-of-the-pack SEC team in Tennessee. Louisville not only needs to win games, but they must do it in convincing fashion in order to get noticed and move up in the polls. They win this game by 20+ points, and we collect along with them. Louisville is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Kentucky just has not handled prosperity well, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a victory in their previous outing.
7 Unit Play. #127 Take Maryland Terrapins -6 over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN3.com)
Non-Conference Game of the Year.
Revenge will be best served on the field tonight in Storrs. Maryland suffered numerous injuries last season, especially at the quarterback position, and every team was able to kick them around. But that will not be the case this season. Maryland is loaded on offense, and expect them to light up the scoreboard all night long against a team that has quit on their coach in 2013. Nobody was real excited about the hiring of Paul Pasqualoni when current Maryland Coach Randy Edsall left Connecticut. Things reached an epic low in week 1 of this season when they lost to Towson State by double-digits. The Huskies had a strong defense last season, but that is not the case in 2013 as four players off of the 2012 defensive squad were NFL Draft picks.
This game is all about Coach Randy Edsall as he struggled through some tough games in his first two years, including a loss at home to Connecticut in 2012. He is still angry about that game and will not let off the gas for 60 minutes tonight, wanting to show the crowd why he is the all-time winningest coach in UCONN history. UCONN is 2-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games overall. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. Expect Maryland to have a great scouting report since Towson State's head coach used to work with Coach Edsall. The Maryland coach does not just want a victory in this game, he wants to make a statement, and he will by double-digits.
4 Unit Play. #151 Take Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 over Texas A & M Aggies (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The players for Alabama will never admit it publically; however, they want revenge in a big way against Texas A & M. They want to shut up Johnny Manziel and knock his team out of the national championship picture. I expect them to do it in a big way as the fact remains that Johnny Football just does not have the offensive line or the playmakers around him to compete this year. I expect him to try and do too much and thus turn over the football and give Alabama a short field. The Crimson Tide are coming off a bye week and did not perform very well on offense against Virginia Tech in their opener. I expect AJ McCarron to have a big bounce-back week as he likely has more draft potential than Johnny Football. A & M is the most overrated team in the country this season, and it will show today as they suffer the first of many losses this season by double-digits. Alabama is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
4 Unit Play. #173 Take UMASS Minutemen +39 over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm) UMASS is a terrible team that is just getting used to FBS play. However, the Wildcats are rebuilding this year, and I do not believe that they are good enough to be laying this many points to anybody. They already have a loss on their 2013 resume to a FCS team in North Dakota State. The Minutemen lost to a much better Wisconsin team by 45 points, and I believe they will be able to score on Kansas State. That means the Wildcats will likely have to score over 50 points to cover this spread. Kansas State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 nonconference games. I see Kansas State winning this game by 28-32 points, giving us the cover.
4 Unit Play. #182 Take UNDER 49 in Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday 8 pm ABC) For some reason, this game gets prime time billing even though Purdue is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and maybe the country. The Irish could not stop Michigan last week but should have a much easier time with Purdue in Week 3. Purdue has scored just 27 points in two games this season. Notre Dame has gone under the posted total in 18 of their last 26 games (one push). Purdue has gone under the posted total in their last three games against Notre Dame. Play the under and do not worry if Notre Dame can cover this spread.
4 Unit Play. #184 Take New Mexico State Aggies +4.5 over UTEP Miners (8 pm) The Miners complete their New Mexico two-step playing the Aggies after facing the Lobos in their opening game. UTEP lost to New Mexico, giving up 42 points, and yet they are favored in this game on the road. The fact remains that UTEP is not a good team and that they have been terrible of late when it comes to ATS. They were 3-9 last year and now have a new coach in Sean Kugler. The Miners have covered just four of their last 18 games. NMSU is nothing to write home about, but they also have a new coach in Doug Martin and are playing as an independent this season. That being said, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Aggies win their home opener straight up, and we collect big in the process as well!
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Red Sox friday.
Saturday it's Alabama.The deficit is 1192 sirignanos.
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Al DeMarco
5 Dime Road Rout of the Year
Louisville
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Gamblers Data (Fletcher)
5* UNLV-6.5 bought half point Golden Nugget
Mayweather-270 large. MGM
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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Saturday, September 14th
2013 College Footbball Non-Conference Total of the Year!!!!!
UCLA/Nebraska over 69 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Report absolutely 100% Free of Charge!!!Early Best Bets
Louisville/Kentucky under 60
Louisiana-Monroe/Wake Forest under 51
Southern Mississippi/Arkansas over 49 1/2
Tulsa/Oklahoma under 49
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Bailey is 3-0, 1.53 in his last five starts.
-- Hamels is 3-0, 1.95 in his last eight starts. Gonzalez is 3-0, 2.08 in his last three outings.
-- Baker threw five shutout innings in his first '13 start.
-- Medlen is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts. Erlin is 1-0, 2.38 in his last two.
-- Nolasco is 7-0, 2.29 in his last eight starts. Lincecum is 3-0, 3.60 in last four.
-- Wacha is 2-0, 1.50 in his last four starts. Paxton won his first start, giving up two runs in six IP.
-- Tillman is 2-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
-- Lester is 3-1, 1.96 in his last five starts.
-- Jimenez won his last two starts, allowing one run in 13 IP.
-- Weaver is 2-1, 2.33 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 7-0, 2.15 in his last nine starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Hellweg is 1-3, 12.06 in four starts this year.
-- Alvarez is 1-3, 6.84 in his last five starts. Turner is 0-3, 6.82 in his last six. Torres is 1-3, 7.84 in his last four starts. Matsuzaka is 0-3, 9.00 in 4 starts.
-- Cole is 0-2, 3.72 in his last three starts.
-- Miley is 0-2, 4.98 in his last four starts. Oswalt is 0-4, 6.23 in four starts, last of which was July 7.
-- Rogers is 2-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-2, 5.06 in his last four starts.
-- Colon is 1-3, 6.35 in his last five starts. Darvish is 0-3, 4.34 in his last three.
-- Fister is 1-2, 5.89 in his last three starts. Santana is 0-3, 5.10 in his last five.
-- Rienzo is 1-1, 7.47 in his last three starts.
-- Oberholtzer is 4-2, 2.11 in seven starts this year.
-- Albers is 0-2, 5.72 in his last five starts.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Bailey 3-29 (0 of last 11); Hellweg 2-4
-- Alvarez 2-12; Turner 5-17 (4 of last 7); Matsuzaka 2-4 Torres 2-6
-- Hamels 5-30 (1 of last 9); Gonzalez 8-29
-- Baker 0-1; Cole 5-15 (3 of last 5)
-- Erlin 2-6; Medlen 8-28 (0 of last 9)
-- Oswalt 1-4; Miley 10-29 (4 of last 6)
-- Lincecum 10-29 (1 of last 9); Nolasco 6-29 (0 of last 7)
-- Paxton 0-1; Wacha 1-6
-- Tillman 7-29 (3 of last 6); Rogers 5-17 (0 of last 4)
-- Sabathia 10-30 (4 of last 6); Lester 8-20 (0 of last 6)
-- Colon 7-27; Darvish 8-27 (1 of last 6)
-- Santana 12-29; Fister 6-29 (1 of last 11)
-- Jimenez 6-28 (1 of last 13); Rienzo 0-8
-- Weaver 3-22 (0 of last 5); Oberholtzer 1-7
-- Moore 7-23 (1 of last 9); Albers 2-7
Totals
-- Five of last seven Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Washington games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- mia-ny
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Milwaukee games.
-- Six of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- 12 of last 15 San Francisco games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six St Louis games.
-- Seven of last nine White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Detroit home games went over.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Baltimore games.
-- Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Bronx games.
-- Six of last eight Texas games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Angel games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Minnesota games went over total.
Hot teams
-- Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Washington won nine of its last ten games. Phillies won five of their last seven games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last six games.
-- Padres won five of their last seven games.
-- Giants won four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven games.
-- Indians won seven of their last ten games.
-- Bronx won four of its last six games. Red Sox won eight of their last ten.
-- Kansas City won four of its last six games. Detroit won its last three games, allowing four runs. .
-- A's won six of their last seven games.
-- Houston won its last four games, scoring 34 runs. Angels won six of their last nine games.
Cold teams
-- Cubs are 11-20 in their last 31 games.
-- Miami lost six of their last seven games; Mets lost six of their last eight.
-- Braves lost six of their last nine games.
-- Reds lost three of their last four games.
-- Colorado lost seven of its last ten games. Arizona lost four its last five.
-- Dodgers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners lost their last five games, allowing 31 runs.
-- White Sox lost 13 of their last 15 games.
-- Toronto lost last five home games, allowing 31 runs. Orioles lost four of their last six games.
-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games. Twins lost seven of last nine. .
-- Texas lost seven of its last eight games.
Umpires
-- Cin-Mil-- 13 of last 18 Hernandez games went over total.
-- Mia-NY-- Six of last eight Bellino games went over the total. Four of last five Basner games went over.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Under is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Joyce games.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Eight of last ten Demuth games went over total.
-- SD-Atl-- Seven of last nine Hallion games stayed under.
-- Col-Az-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Gonzalez games.
-- SF-LA-- Underdogs won 11 of last 15 Knight games.
-- Sea-StL-- Under is 14-5-1 in last 20 Johnson games.
-- Blt-Tor-- Underdogs won seven of last nine Bucknor games.
-- NY-Bos-- Home side won eight of last nine Dimuro games.
-- A's-Tex-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen West games.
-- KC-Det-- Five of last seven Hirschbeck games stayed under.
-- Cle-Chi-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cooper games.
-- LA-Hst-- Six of last seven Wegner games went over the total.
-- TB-Min-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Layne games.
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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - FREE PLAY SATURDAY
3-UNIT STRONG OPINION
N. ILLINOIS -28 (-130) (2pm) - FREE PLAY
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 1095-825(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !
Free winner Sat: Washington -10
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Gamblers Data
Free Plays Saturday
Arizona -24
Marshall -8
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Cappers Access
Nebraska -3
Alabama -9
Mississippi St +7
Purdue +20-
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NCAAF
Week 3
Saturday's games
Top 13 games
Lousiville is 8-5 in last 13 games with Kentucky, winning 24-17/32-14 in last two meetings; Cardinals won last two visits here, with last couple of wins by seven points each. Since '09, Wildcats are 5-8-1 as home dogs- they're 15-11 vs spread in last 26 non-league tilts. U of L is 3-3 as road favorite under Strong- they've got 10 starters back on defense and have one of best QBs in country (22 starts). Kentucky has QB with 5 starts, OL with only 49 combined starts, but that matters less in home games.
Indiana gave up 444 rushing yards to Navy's option offense last week in disappointing 41-35 home loss, after giving up two defensive TDs week before to I-AA Indiana State; since '08, Hoosiers are 4-8 as home faves, 8-11 in non-league games. Bowling Green won first two games by 19-27 points, running ball for 219-233 yards; they're 20-11 as road underdogs since '06, 11-7 under Clawson. For team with 19 returning starters, IU is off to bad start. MAC teams are 5-7 as non-league road underdogs. Big Dozen non-league favorites are 9-5, 7-5 at home.
Since 2004, East Carolina is 15-6-1 as home dogs, 5-3 under Ruffin; they are 10-17-1 vs spread in last 28 non-league games. Pirates are 1-6 in last seven games with Virginia Tech, losing last three played here by average score of 26-14. Hokies were 0-3 as road favorites LY, after being 20-8-1 in that role from '04-'11; they outgained Alabama 212-206 in neutral field opener, but gave up a defensive TD and two special teams TDs. Tech completed 20-35 passes last week vs I-AA foe, after being dismal 5-26 in dome week before, not what you expect from a senior QB.
Coach Edsall left UConn for Maryland, so this game has extra meaning; Huskies had last week off after hideous home loss to I-AA Towson in opener (TY 393-290). UConn (-2.5) won 24-21 at Maryland LY-- they outrushed Terps 153-96. Since '05, UConn is 15-3 as home underdogs. Maryland has thrown ball for 600 yards in first two games; they're 1-4 as road favorites since '06- this is first time they're been favored on road since '10. Neither team has much experience at QB, but at least Terps aren't playing a linebacker there this year. UConn's OL has edge here in experience. First road game for Maryland, with West Virginia on deck.
Fresno State (-15) gained 665 yards in 69-14 humiliation of Colorado at home LY; since '09, Bulldogs are 8-2 as road favorites. Colorado's new coach MacIntyre came from San Jose State, whose main rival in WAC was Fresno. San Jose (+6.5) upset Bulldogs 27-24 in last meeting in '11, after losing 33-18 previous year, MacIntyre's first with Spartans. Buffs are just 3-6 as home dogs last decade, but this also best coaching they've and in Richardson, Colorado has one of best WRs in country. When you lose game 69-14, you circle the rematch on the calendar. I'm just sayin'.
UCLA (+5) upset Nebraska 36-30 at home LY, gaining 653 yards, 344 on the ground; Bruins are 2-0 as road dogs under Mora, after being 11-18 in that role from '05-'11. UCLA had last week off after crushing Nevada in its opener; they're 4-1 in non-league games under Mora. Cornhuskers had defensive issues in 37-34 opening win over Wyoming- they scored coupel defensive TDs in rout of hapless Southern Miss last week- they are 8-2 in last 10 games as home favorites. Both teams have quality QB and similar amount of experience (80-88 starts) on OL.
Texas fired DC Diaz after giving up 550 rushing yards to BYU in 40-21 loss last week; not sure how that helps this week, facing Ole Miss squad they crushed 66-31 in LY's meeting (-10). Since '08, Rebels are 10-5 as road dogs- they already have road win 39-35 (-3) at Vandy, when they ran for 206 yards, passed for 283 with no turnovers. Ole Miss' QB has 15 starts, its OL 92 starts, so they can move ball. Since '09, Longhorns are 9-14 as home favorites- they covered only nine of last 26 home tilts and opening Big X play next week, they're headed in wrong direction.
USC lost 10-7 at home to Washington State last week despite Wazzu not scoring offensive TD; Soph Kessler gets third start after playing 1st half last week- Trojans' longest pass play last week (11-21/54) was just eight yards. Natives are restless with Kiffin; USC is 7-4 in last 11 games as home favorites, but with scholarship numbers down due to probation typical Trojan depth isn't there. Boston College is was 0-5 as road dog LY, after being 18-7 in that role from '03-'11; Eagles held Wake Forest to 246 yards in 24-10 win last week after struggling to beat I-AA team the week before. BC has had five different OC's in last 2.5 years.
Iowa-Iowa State split last six meetings in intense rivalry, with Cyclones' wins by 3-3-2 points, Iowa's by combined total of 87-15. Underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games; Hawkeyes lost five of last seven visits here, with dogs 4-2 vs spread in last six played in Ames. Since '10, Iowa is 2-5 as road favorites; they've got young QB and after losing at home to Northern Illinois in opener, had smallest home crowd in decade last week, so their program is sliding. State had last week off after dismal loss to I-AA Northern Iowa- they're 6-8-1 as home dog under Rhodes.
Texas A&M (+13) won 29-24 at Alabama LY, with +3 turnover margin huge stat in game where TY was 431-418, Bama. A&M is new to SEC, so Crimson Tide hasn't played here- since '08, they're 15-6 as favorites on road, but Bama's OL is inexperienced (44 starts) which showed in its opening win vs Va Tech, a misleading 35-10 win where Tide scored pair of special teams TDs and another on defense. TY in that game was just 212-206, VT. Since '05, Aggies are 9-6-1 as home dogs. Both teams are well-off at QB, Bama has revenge motive, Aggies have home field. LY, Alabama won national title; despite losing to A&M.
Washington (-4.5) waxed Boise State 38-6 in opener, gaining 592 yards as they avenged LY's bowl loss to Broncos, but over last decade, U-Dub is just 12-41 SU on foreign soil, 4-5 as road favorite- this isn't true road game, being played at Soldier Field not Champaign. Illinois had big 45-17 win over Cincinnati last week, with 210 rushing yards, 312 passing, so having veteran QB (28 starts) helps. Washington had last week off; their senior QB Price (27 starts) gives Sarkisian mobility. Illini covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Interesectional road favorites: 11-8 so far in this young season.
South Carolina won 11 of last 13 games vs Vanderbilt, winning last four by unlikely average score of 18-8, with underdogs 7-4 vs spread last 11 years, 4-1 in last five played here. As Franklin has improved program at Vandy, they've played Carolina tough, outgaining them 276-272 LY in a 17-13 home loss (+6.5), but they haven't won. Gamecocks lost 41-30 at Georgia last week; under Spurrier, Carolina is 16-12-2 vs spread coming off a loss- they're 11-5 in last 16 games as home favorite. Since 2004, Vandy is 24-12-1 as a road dog- they lost opener at home to Ole Miss after leading 21-10 at half. These games have been defensive struggles.
Wisconson upgraded at HC when Anderson replaced Bielema, who ran off to Arkansas; Anderson was 14-2 vs spread as road underdog in his time in Logan. Badgers are 3-1 as road dogs last three years- they went out west in September LY, lost 10-7 (-7) at Oregon State. Arizona State is 18-12 as home favorites last five years, 4-1 under Graham; ASU has 70 starts back on OL and QB with 14 starts. Badgers have 58 starts on OL and new QB. Neither team has been tested yet, playing combined three stiffs. Teams met in 2010; Badgers (-12) won 20-19 in Madison, but since both teams changed coaches since then, it doesn't mean much.
Rest of the Card; notes on rest of the games
-- Eastern Michigan is 2-5 in last seven games as a road dog. Over last four years, Rutgers is 5-9 as a home favorite.
-- Stanford covered 12 of last 14 as a road favorite. Army covered five of last seven tries as a home underdog.
-- Home team covered eight of last 11 Marshall-Ohio games. Bobcats are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen non-conference games.
-- Since '08, New Mexico is 12-16 as a road underdog. Since '09, Pitt has covered 11 of 20 games as a home favorite, under three different HCs.
-- Wake Forest covered seven of last nine non-ACC home games. ULM is 7-6 in last thirteen games as a road underdog.
-- Western Kentucky is 4-0 vs spread as a road favorite; they turned ball over five times in six plays in 52-20 loss at Tennessee last week.
-- Georgia Tech won 15 of last 16 games (9-7 vs spread) vs Duke, which lost starting QB Boone last week. Tech is 2-4-1 as a road favorite.
-- Tennessee is 5-13 vs spread in last 18 games as an underdog. Oregon is 6-8-1 as a home favorite the last 2+ years.
-- Road dog won previous two Northern Illinois-Idaho games. Vandals covered twice in their last eight games as a home underdog.
-- Auburn won 10 of last 12 games vs Mississippi State, which failed to cover its last five tries as a road underdog.
-- Penn State is 6-1 as home favorite under O'Brien, who worked seven years as an assistant under UCF coach O'Leary. Knights are 16-11 as a road underdog the last few years.
-- Ball State covered 18 of last 27 games. North Texas lost to Ohio U of MAC last week, outgaining Mean Green 447-299.
-- Arkansas is 14-9-1 vs spread in its last 24 games as a home favorite. Southern Miss had 18 consecutive winning seasons until they went 0-12 LY- Golden Eagles are 1-6 in last seven games as a road dog.
-- Oklahoma won its last six games with Tulsa, going 4-1-1 vs spread. Blake Bell gets start at QB for injured starter Knight.
-- Cal Bears covered twice in last ten games as road dog. Over last four years, Ohio State is 2-6-1 when laying points on the road.
-- South Florida is 4-13 in last 17 games as home favorite- their QB was 6-26 passing last week. Oy. FAU covered both its games this season.
-- Rice (+11) upset Kansas in Lawrence LY, 25-24; their QB was once the starter at BYU. Owls are favored over BCS team for first time in 12 years- since '08, they're 8-2 as a home favorite.
-- Notre Dame won its last five games with Purdue by average of dozen points; Irish is 5-4 vs spread under Kelly when coming off a loss.
-- UTEP won its last four games vs New Mexico State (3-0-1 vs spread) Aggies allowed 100 points in first two games, vs Texas/Minnesota.
-- Arizona covered eight of last 11 non-league games. UISA has a win at New Mexico, but they're in over head here, vs team that won 58-13 last week at UNLV.
-- Home team won all four Oregon State-Utah games, covering three of the four games. Beavers covered 16 of last 22 games as a road dog.
-- Central Michigan beat I-AA New Hampshire 24-21 on final play last week, not exactly a great sign/ Chippewas are 1-9 as a road underdog.
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