Phil Steele ESPN Insider
Each week during the 2013 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 3 is in the books and my picks went 7-2, giving me an overall record of 19-8.
While this week's slate of games looks like a bit of a letdown after last week's Alabama-Texas A&M thriller, there are some intriguing conference matchups along with some longtime nonconference rivals squaring off. I tried to find games that could offer a lot of split opinions.
No. 23 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 5 Stanford Cardinal
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
This week's only game involving two ranked teams takes place in the Pac-12 as the Sun Devils, fresh off a controversial 32-30 win over then-No. 20 Wisconsin, travel to take on the defending Pac-12 champion Cardinal, who are off to a 2-0 start after last week's 34-20 win over Army.
These two conference foes have not met since 2010, but Stanford is going for three straight wins in the series for only the second time (1999-2001).
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After two wins over overmatched foes in San Jose State and Army, this will be the first legitimate test for the Cardinal. Last week's relatively close game can be excused when you consider the Cardinal were traveling across the country, playing at 9 a.m. PT time. Plus, Stanford had to face Army's option offense.
Quarterback Kevin Hogan is now a perfect 7-0 as a starter, and last year had four wins over ranked teams. On the other side, prior to last week's win over the Badgers, the Sun Devils' only win in the Todd Graham era over a team with a winning record came in last year's bowl game over Navy.
This will be the best defense that the Sun Devils have faced in two years. On the other side, I look for the Cardinal's excellent offensive line to wear down a relatively undersized Arizona State front seven that allowed 231 rush yards last week.
Pick: Stanford 31, Arizona State 20
Michigan State Spartans at No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
After going just 3-9 against the Spartans from 1997-2008, the Fighting Irish have now won three of the past four games over MSU, including two straight for the first time since 1993-1994. Last year's 20-3 win also ended Michigan State's 15-game home winning streak.
Last week, the Irish were in a flat spot against Purdue and found themselves down 17-10 into the fourth quarter before they scored three touchdowns in a span of 3:30 to make it 31-17. Quarterback Tommy Rees has thrown for more than 300 yards in all three games this year, but the Irish's ground game has averaged just 94 yards per game (YPG) the past two weeks. It will not get any easier for the Irish this week as they go up against a Spartans D that ranks No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing just 177 YPG, albeit against poor competition.
On the other side, the Notre Dame defense has been a disappointment but will face a Michigan State offense that had struggled mightily prior to last week's 55-17 win over Youngstown State. After throwing four touchdown passes in Week 3, MSU quarterback Connor Cook will be making his first career road start in South Bend, where the Irish have won nine straight home games, their longest streak since 1997-1999.
Nine of the past 13 meetings between these teams have been decided by single digits, and I expect more of the same Saturday with the Irish winning their third straight.
Pick: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 17
Auburn Tigers at No. 6 LSU Tigers
Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both teams come in a perfect 3-0. Last week Auburn capped off an 88-yard drive with a touchdown pass with 10 seconds left to beat Mississippi State 24-20. Quarterback Nick Marshall continues to improve each week and connected on 6 of 8 passes on the game-winning drive. However, he will be making his first career road start in one of college football's toughest settings: a night game at Death Valley.
LSU QB Zach Mettenberger continues an impressive season to date under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. He has completed 66 percent of his passes the past two weeks (albeit against UAB and Kent State), and has a 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season.
While LSU does have a huge game against Georgia on deck, you have to think Auburn left it all on the table last week and will have no answer for an LSU attack that features a one-two punch at wide receiver in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, who are averaging a combined 316 all-purpose YPG this year.
Pick: LSU 38, Auburn 21
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 19 Florida Gators
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Gators have won eight in a row in this series by an average of 16 points. Last year, Tennessee led 14-10 at halftime, but Florida, true to form in the Will Muschamp era, made adjustments at the break and outgained the Vols in yardage to the tune of 399-109 in the second half in its 37-20 win.
Jeff Driskel
Kevin Liles/US PRESSWIRE
Jeff Driskel and the Gators are looking to bounce back after losing to Miami in Week 2.
This year, Florida comes in off a bye after a disappointing 21-16 loss to Miami. The Gators had a 22-10 first-down advantage and 413-212 yard edge in the game, but inefficiency in the red zone was the issue as they had two turnovers and also were stopped on downs. Quarterback Jeff Driskel threw for a career-high 291 yards but now has 12 turnovers in his past seven starts. On the bright side, the Gators defense ranks among the best in the country despite returning only three starters from last year.
Tennessee comes in off its worst loss since 1910; after leading Oregon 7-0 early, it was all downhill from there in the Vols' 59-14 loss to the Ducks. Quarterback Justin Worley, despite having a 5-1 TD-INT ratio, is averaging just 124 YPG and the Vols overall are getting outgained by 49 YPG.
Look for the Gators to shut down the Volunteers offense and, as long as Florida can clean up the turnovers in the red zone on offense, it should come away with a two-touchdown win.
Pick: Florida 30, Tennessee 16
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs
Friday at 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Broncos have dominated this series, winning seven straight games and, prior to last year's 20-10 win, had won the previous four games by an incredible 42 PPG.
Boise State has piled up 28 wins in its past 31 road games, but it was steamrolled at Washington earlier this year 38-6 and will be facing a Fresno State team that is a perfect 8-0 at home under coach Tim DeRuyter. The Broncos have won two straight games since that disappointing opener, and last week quarterback Joe Southwick had the highest passing efficiency total in Broncos history after completing 27 of 29 passes.
Southwick's counterpart, Derek Carr, is averaging 331 passing yards with an 8-1 TD-INT ratio as the Bulldogs have not played a game in two weeks because of the postponement of the Colorado game.
In my preseason College Football Preview, I picked Fresno State as my top non-AQ team and a win here will further validate that prediction. Look for the Bulldogs to finally end their series losing streak, but they may have to see the Broncos again here in the inaugural Mountain West championship game in December.
Pick: Fresno State 38, Boise State 34
Quick hitters
Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN 2
Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton deserves Heisman consideration as he is averaging 308 pass YPG to go with a 12-1 TD-INT ratio. However, he will be facing a USC defense that is allowing just 212 YPG and 10 PPG this year. Last week, the Trojans offense finally kicked into gear as quarterback Cody Kessler completed 15 of 17 passes for 237 yards. In the end, the Trojans get their second straight win before a showdown with Arizona State next week.
Pick: USC 30, Utah State 20
Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arkansas is off to a 3-0 start under new coach Bret Bielema and its offense looks much like Wisconsin's in recent years as running backs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins have each topped 100 yards in the first three games. While both Arkansas QB Brandon Allen and Rutgers signal-caller Gary Nova were hurt in last week's games and are questionable this week, I think the Hogs have the better supporting cast and will move to 4-0.
Pick: Arkansas 24, Rutgers 18
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
I had extremely high expectations for Texas this season but clearly the Horns have disappointed. They come in reeling after back-to-back losses and now face a Kansas State team that has beaten them five straight times despite the Wildcats getting outgained in all five of those games by an average of 96 yards. Sooner or later, the Horns will play up to their talent level. Plus, earlier this week Gary "the Gut" Galante went with Texas and I always stick with "the Gut."
Pick: Texas 34, Kansas State 28
Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
Utah and BYU have been playing the "Holy War" since 1896, but this is just one of many longtime rivalries that looks to be going by the wayside because of conference realignment. The Utes have now beaten the Cougars three straight years; however, this year BYU has the situational edge coming off a bye week after its impressive win over Texas while Utah comes in off a tough overtime loss to Oregon State. The Cougars get revenge and bragging rights until they meet again in 2016.
Pick: BYU 34, Utah 27
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