JOE GAVAZZI
CFB
North Texas at Georgia (-33) 12:20 ET
Horrible situation for home standing Georgia.
The Bulldogs have had 2 weeks to get fat after rebounding from the week 1 loss at Clemson with a 41-30 home victory over S. Carolina. Surely their focus has been on next week’s Marquee Matchup with LSU. Though the N. Texas offense will not be confused with either of Georgia’s first two opponents, it must be noted that the 3 RS on the Georgia defensive side of the ball have allowed 34 PPG and 461 YPG. Tough to lay this number in this situation against a veteran Mean Green team who has 17 RS and quality leader in 3rd year HC McCarthy. The Green will enter with great confidence. After trailing Ball St. at home 27-9 last week, the Green scored the last 25 points for a 34-27 victory. Technical support abounds. North Texas is 5-0 ATS taking 23 or more points of late, while Georgia HC Richt was 0-4 ATS laying 20 or more last year.
Pittsburgh (-4-) at Duke 12:30 ET
Following the MNF debacle against Florida St., the Panthers rebounded, with a week of rest, for a 49-27 win against outmanned New Mexico, a game they led 42-6. Now they must take to the road for their first ACC game. They won’t like the hospitality in Durham. This is a Blue Devil team that is changing for the better under 6th year HC Cutcliffe. No longer is this a Duke team who relies on the passing game to come through the back door for a cover. This year the Devils have one the most veteran OL’s in the nation resulting in an improved ground game that averages 187/4.4. Despite being torched by the GT Option last week, you will note that Duke is still firmly entrenched on our list of Defensive Dandies. QB Connette improving with each week as a replacement for QB Boone, must believe the wrong team is favored as we side with the better running game and defense as home underdog.
LA Monroe at Baylor (-29-) 4:00 ET FS1TV
Last year at this time, the Warhawks were taking the nation by storm with a 34-31 upset of Arkansas, a narrow 3 point loss at Auburn, and a 47-42 loss to this Baylor team, a game in which they outgained the Bears 560-549. With 17 RS, including QB Browning, and the reigning Sun Belt COY Todd Berry, LA Monroe is at it again. In the week 1 loss to Oklahoma, they were surprised by the Sooner ground game. Last week, however, they returned to upset form in outgaining Wake 424-315 in a 21-19 win as +3. Meanwhile, Baylor has blown the doors off Wofford and Buff to enter today averaging 70 PPG, 737 YPG and 9.7 YP play. The result is this week’s biggest -77 AFP DIFF favoring the Warhawks at a price that is 3 TDs more than opening week and 3 TDs more than last year. Lots of value with this big dog.